After a brief stint which saw the Royals win 10 of 13 and bring themselves within 7.5 games of the division leading Detroit Tigers and giving fans false hope in a possible division race…the Royals appropriately dropped their next six at the hands of the new division leading White Sox and the Oakland A’s.
Now standing 11.5 back of the White Sox and 13 games under .500 it is reasonable to say that the Royals have become sellers as the July 31 trade deadline nears.
First off, I’d like to say that I was in the majority of Royals fans who knew that it was unreasonable to think that the Royals were in a division race before the six game losing streak, but unfortunately I was not. Its no knock on the Royals fan base to say that they (and me) have no idea what it’s like to be in a division race, although I get the feeling that it’s pretty exciting from my over-exuberant Cardinals friends. It’s not our fault that we are ignorant on this subject, because we haven’t really been in a division race for all 21 years of my existence. So we get excited whenever we look up at the standings as the All-Star break is nearing and see not only are we not in last place, but we’re within SINGLE digits of first place! But, to no fault of our poor little baseball hearts, we fail to recognize the difference from being 7.5 back and in SECOND and being 7.5 back and in FOURTH. You see, in second place you gain a game every time you win and the team in front of you loses, but when you’re in fourth place, the only way you truly gain a game is if you win and all three of the teams in front of you lose. And for that to happen roughly eight times over the course of 80 games is very unlikely, especially when you’re playing below .500 baseball to begin with.
But I digress, and refocus to the purpose of this post, which is to evaluate where the Royals are as a team now, and what they should be looking to do as the deadline approaches.
There have been numerous names that have popped up in trade rumors. Most recently it has been Joakim Soria to the Yankees. Let me go ahead and start out by saying that I think it would be the height of stupidity to even consider trading Soria. Closers aren’t easy to come by in baseball, especially closers that have established themselves as one the best in the league over the last three years. I could see the logic in trading Soria if it were five years from now and he was in his 30s and had wore out his welcome in the closer universe as a consistent and successful save man. But Soria is only 26-years-old and for the last three years that he’s seen action as the closer, he’s been one of the best in the business. That is simply a commodity that you don’t give up. And I am confident that Dayton Moore knows this as well. Next.
David Dejesus is the next Royal that has been inked in trade rumor. I’ve gone back and forth on the prospect of trading Dejesus to a contender and have decided that I think it would be in the Royals’ best interest to keep Dejesus. Some national baseball writers, including Buster Olney, think that Dejesus would only warrant B level prospects and probably just a couple. And I tend to agree with this logic, which is exactly why I wouldn’t trade Dejesus. He isn’t a stud that is going to give you a 30/30 season or go out and win you a batting title. He is, however, a very nice piece to have in your outfield, which is why he is a wanted man by contenders such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Padres. Some Royals baseball analysts will tell you that Dejesus is what he is which is an everyday outfielder that is going to hit for a decent average and little power but is going to bring you above average defense --and his value isn’t going to get any higher than it is now so you should take a good deal if it’s offered. Which is exactly why the Royals should hang on to him, because his value to the Royals in the future is far greater than anything that he would be able to garner in a trade.
It may never come to pass, but it is my belief that Dejesus will be a real asset and an integral piece on a playoff team. So I think it is worth the risk for the Royals to see if they can be that team and if not it definitely outweighs the alternative of watching him be that piece for another club while the they wait on mid-level prospects from the deal to make it to the big leagues. Next.
Jose Guillen is the popular choice of Royals’ fans and I’m sure of the Royals organization to get rid of at the deadline. And I don’t think Dayton should be picky in his negotiations. Guillen is producing well for the Royals this year .278/.340/.459 with 15 home runs and 54 RBI, but lets not lose perspective. He is aging (34) and at this point in his career a liability in the outfield, although the Royals made a valiant effort to try and showcase his “skills” for several weeks in interleague play to boost National League teams’ interest, but the “class 1 strain” that he suffered didn’t help his stock.
So basically, you’ve got a 34-year-old that can’t play the field, but is a solid run producer with some pop. This just screams post-deadline with waivers being cleared and part of his remaining $12 million salary being picked up plus a little incentive for the Royals if Jose performs adequately with his new team. He could only be so kind as to do so. The real reason Dayton should be moving Jose, if not only to spare the fans with the injury plagued, under-producing loudmouth, is to allow Kila Ka’aihue, who’s hitting .310/.462/.595 in Omaha, to get up to the big league club and actually get some AB’s. And believe me, he will with Guillen gone, because a small market team like the Royals can’t sit their highest paid player in favor of a minor league talent, that is unfortunately why this move hasn’t happened already.
Kyle Farnsworth is the only other player that I think the Royals will consider moving and I think he is the most likely to get traded for prospects. What kind of prospects will he draw? I’m not qualified to tell you but I think that he would draw a little more than Guillen before he got hurt and a little less than Dejesus. If you can get a prospect that might someday be a backup catcher or a fourth outfielder than that alone would be worth the deal. But moving Farnsworth just makes since regardless. He’s not a part of the team’s future and his contract expires at the end of the season. I think if you would’ve told me that we could trade Farnsworth for a decent prospect at the beginning of the year when we signed him to the ridiculous $4 million deal then I would have taken it.
Beyond those four, the other names that have been mentioned are Brian Bannister and Scott Podsednik. I don’t see there being too much interest from either side of the Posdenik trade market. Now if the Royals are blown away with a team’s offer that suddenly has a need for a speedy fourth outfielder than they would probably deal Posednik. But in all likelihood that team is looking for Dejesus and Podsednik would be a last-stitch effort. And from the Royals point of view, Podsednik is only here another year and is a temporary fill-in in the left field until next year when, in all likelihood, Alex Gordon will be given his chance.
It is my belief that only one-half of the Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies duo will be around next year. Both have had their struggles and with the abundance of solid young arms in the minors right now, there simply won't be a need to keep both. If it were up to me I would keep Bannister over Davies, just due to the fact that I think Bannister will grind it out for you and has a place as a 5th starter on a good team. Which seems to be the consensus of the rest of the league who has shown some interest in Bannister and virtually none in Davies. But he is what he is as Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli says so profoundly.
Let’s face it: with his upper-80s fastball, there’s simply a limit to how good Bannister can be in the superior league. He’s the quintessential National League pitcher; against inferior hitters, without having to face the DH, and in a big ballpark – hello, NL West! – he could be a revelation. Plus, he’s an excellent hitter for a pitcher. At least, this is the pitch the Royals should be making.
If the offers are out there for Bannister then the Royals should listen. But I'm not sure I like the possibility of being left with Davies out of that duo. If the Royals can get value out of Bannister, however, then they should definitely take it.
I think there is real value in creating a winning environment with the big league club, which is part of the reason why I think you hold on to Dejesus and Soria. You want there to be some experienced success in the clubhouse when Hosmer, Moustakas, Montgomery and others get to the big leagues. Now don’t get me wrong. Trotting out Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Rick Ankiel does you absolutely no good and I would much rather see Kila and Mitch Maier take their lumps for maybe a couple less wins as a team. But keeping guys like David Dejesus and Soria sends a message to other guys like Billy Butler and Zach Greinke of “We’re building for the future still but we think that future is soon enough to hold on to a couple valuable veterans.”
The Royals aren’t in a division race or even in the playoff hunt, but there is still much significance left in the season and it starts with Dayton Moore and the trade deadline.