Monday, February 21, 2011

Big 12 Weekend Rewind/Separation Week

What did we learn:
  • Texas is not invincible and the Huskers are nails in Cornland.  
    • I posted after the Texas victory at Texas A&M that I thought the Longhorns would be able to get through the conference slate undefeated; having put the tough portion of its schedule in the rearview. I was wrong. Nebraska continued its impressive play at the Devaney Center, improving to 16-1 at home this season. (More on this later) 
    • Texas is statistically the best defensive team in the Big 12, holding opponents to just under 56 ppg. This is how Texas has been winning games, adding credibility to the old adage that defense wins championships. Texas, however, had not faced a team that had equally impressive defensive statistics, (defense as whole in the Big 12 is fairly poor) until Saturday in Lincoln. Nebraska had been holding opponents to just a tick under 60 ppg. and seemingly beat the Longhorns at their own game--and until the final two minutes of regulation--were fairly dominant in doing so. The Huskers slowed down the pace and worked the shot clock on offense, while holding the Longhorns to 36% shooting on defense. 
    • The win by the Huskers securely moved them into the bubble conversation with its second impressive RPI top 50 victory. At 18-8 (6-6) with and RPI of 61 and home contests against Kansas State and Missouri still remaining, Nebraska has a real shot to play its way into the NCAA tournament.
  • Jacob Pullen wasn't kidding about not playing in the NIT. 
    • At least he played that way this past week in wins over rival Kansas and Oklahoma. Pullen dropped 38 points and looked every bit like the preseason All-American he was voted, in a dominating win over #1 Kansas. He then followed it up with 27 points in a victory over the Sooners on Saturday. Those are Pullen's two highest-scoring performances of the season and they couldn't have come at a better time, with Kansas State firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in. 
  • Missouri CAN win on the road! 
    • The Tigers entered Saturday's contest vs. Iowa State in desperate need of a road win, not only for its psyche, but to show the selection committee that it is actually capable of doing so. The Tigers were able to hold on, 76-70, in, what was for the most part, a very competitive game. It wasn't pretty, but the Tigers got it done and can finally stop answering questions about winning on the road. 
  • Baylor, meet bubble. Bubble, meet Baylor. You two are going to get cozy with each other for the next couple weeks.   
    • After watching Baylor play Texas to its most competitive conference game--to that point--I thought the Bears were finally putting things together. Then they pulled a head-scratcher on Saturday and lost at home to Texas Tech. I didn't watch the game, but I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the score go across the ESPN timeline. Baylor gave up 78 points to the Red Raiders on 51% shooting, at home--not good. But the most concerning statistic was that the Bears went 22% from behind the arc on 18 attempts, while dominant big man, Perry Jones, attempted just four field goals and scored only 10 points. That is sheer injustice to the institution of offense (OK, a little dramatic), but when you have one of the most gifted low-post players in the country on your team, there shouldn't be a game where he attempts fewer than 10 field goals, let alone, five.
    • The loss by Baylor, as I alluded to earlier, places them firmly on the bubble and they might be on the outside looking in as it stands right now. You simply can't have the average resume the Bears do and weather a loss at home to a sub-.500 Texas Tech team. Baylor is going to have to go 3-1 in its remaining four games, which include road games vs. #21 Missouri and Oklahoma State and home games vs. #5 Texas and #17 Texas A&M, in order to get back into the good graces of the selection committee--good luck with that.
Big 12 Power Rankings:
  1. Texas
  2. Kansas 
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Missouri 
  5. Kansas State 
  6. Nebraska
  7. Baylor 
  8. Colorado 
  9. Texas Tech 
  10. Oklahoma State 
  11. Oklahoma 
  12. Iowa State 
Big Games of the Week:
  • Baylor @ #21 Missouri: This is a must-win for both teams. More so for Missouri since it is at home, but Baylor desperately needs to recover from its embarrassing home loss to Texas Tech. Both teams face a treacherous three game stretch to finish the season. Missouri must go on the road to face Kansas State and Nebraska and then finishes at home against #2 Kansas. Meanwhile Baylor has #17 Texas A&M and #5 Texas at home and a tough road test against Oklahoma State. A win by Missouri pushes them closer to securing a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament and officially eliminates Baylor from catching them due to a two game lead and the tie-breaker.  Missouri has literally been unbeatable at home this season and I expect that to continue as Baylor's soft zone defense and sloppy offense plays right into the hands of the Tigers frenetic style of play. Tigers win 84-70.  
  • Kansas State @ Nebraska: Can Nebraska come off the emotional high of beating #2 Texas and position themselves nicely for a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament? (Can't believe I just typed that) Or will Kansas State continue to ride the Pullen Express to a third straight victory? This is a very interesting matchup that would put the winner in a much better position to making the NCAA tournament. It would do much more for Nebraska, however, than it would Kansas State, as the Wildcats did themselves a huge favor already by knocking off Kansas and have a very solid RPI of 30. To be honest I haven't an inkling of who I think will win this game. Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Manhattan only a few weeks ago, but the Huskers are a much different team at home. Kansas State has had its troubles on the road and as much it pains me to say this, I think the Huskers are for real, at home at least. Nebraska wins a close one, 58-54. 

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