Mizzou is 19-9 overall and 7-8 in the Southeastern Conference. The 19-9 isn't necessarily the concerning element, the 7-8, however, is. I think the SEC is a tad underrated as a conference when you look beyond the out-of-date RPI measure and examine advanced analytics employed by Kenpom.com and others. That said, it is at best an average league. So struggling to keep your head above water is no doubt an indictment on you as a basketball team.
Frank Haith's squad has several weaknesses, but a couple glaring deficiencies that completely hinder the team's capability. The front court is as weak as I can remember in 20 or so years of watching Mizzou basketball. And the team's defensive efficiency is absolutely dreadful. It's nearly impossible to be a good team while being poor in these two areas, so it speaks to the kind of talent that exists in the backcourt for the Tigers to actually have a viable shot at make the NCAA Tournament. That backcourt is a three-headed monster in junior Jabari Brown (20.1 ppg.), junior Jordan Clarkson (18.6 ppg.) and senior Earnest Ross (14.3 ppg.). The trio is responsible for 72 percent of the team's scoring.
So the flip side is, how can this team be on the verge of missing the tourney with THAT backcourt?
1) The Frontcourt Is Really Bad: Missouri fans got a taste of something that has seldom been seen in a black and gold uniform the past 20 years — a legitimate low-post presence. He came in the form of UCONN transfer Alex Oriahki. He was real and he was spectacular. He can thank Phil Pressey for his current NBA roster spot, in the D-League albeit, but a spot nonetheless. A known commodity on the defensive end and as a rebounder his first three years in college, Oriahki's offensive game took a drastic uptick in a Missouri uniform largely because of how amazingly adept Phil Pressey is at setting his teammates up with beautiful scoring opportunities. But anyway, I'm getting off track. The Oriahki tangent is to say, one year after we saw what a real low-post presence looked like, we now can without a doubt identify what one does not look like. Maybe this lineup following Ricardo Ratliffe (the most efficient scorer in college basketball in 2012) and Oriahki is unfair, but they are so many light years away from those two individuals in production as an ENTIRE UNIT, that it is comical.
- Sophomore Ryan Rosburg catches a lot of flak for his play. And look, he's not great, but it's not exactly his fault he's largely been the best front court player on this team. Rosburg would be a decent glue guy that could come off the bench and give you 15 minutes of 6 points, 5 rebounds, 4 fouls and a few hustle plays that make you think, "hey, this white boy has some spunk!" But that's on a good team. Mizzou is not a "good team." It is an OK team, thus Rosburg has been over-exposed as a starter who plays 23 minutes a game.
- Freshman Johnathan Williams III, in a normal year, would be the most disappointing big man. Fortunately for him, he's only the third or fourth most disappointing big man on this team. Williams came in as a heralded four-star recruit and he flashes signs of potential that back up his ranking. But for the most part, he's been an ineffective offensive player who shies away from attacking the basket, struggles finishing through contact at the rim too often for a big and has trouble staying on the court due to mostly silly fouls. He's averaging 6.1 points and 6.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. For a team who absolutely needed some front-court scoring, he has fallen woefully short of the mark.
- Senior Tony Criswell is the second-most disappointing player on this team. The UAB transfer displayed some intriguing skills in limited minutes last season. He flashed a mid-range game, rebounding prowess and overall understanding of the game that is quite valuable at this level. All of that, seriously, all of it, disappeared this season. He's averaging less points (4.7), rebounds (3.2) and more damning, minutes (15) than he did a year ago. On this team, it's incredible he isn't starting, but more incredible that he's contributing at a lesser rate when he does get playing time. So, so disappointing and a huge reason this team has waffled since entering conference play.
- Junior Keanu Post, unfairly or not, is the most disappointing player on this year's team. Post came in as a highly-touted JUCO big man whose services were coveted by programs such as defending national champion Louisville. At nearly 7-feet tall, considering the scouting reports and accolades, he was believed to be an immediate-impact player for this team. Post has been so, so far away from what could be considered an impact player it's depressing. At times, he hasn't even looked like a Division-I player. Post is averaging 6.7 minutes for this team. 6.7 minutes. For this team. He is averaging .8 points and 1.3 rebounds. Again, he's 7-feet tall and has exactly one year of eligibility left. People were underwhelmed by Ratliffe's first season at Mizzou. Post's opening season makes Ratliffe's junior year look like Kevin Love at UCLA, or Minnesota — seriously, that guy is awesome.
*Freshman Torren Jones, nicknamed "Torrenado" which I fully endorse, has been a bit of a surprising bright spot for this unit. He is extremely athletic, sculpted like a statue and brings all kinds of energy off the bench. He lacks a polished offensive game, but that can certainly come in the next couple years with work. But the measurables and intangibles are certainly there, which is nice.
Haith deserves criticism for this front court, although the Criswell situation still baffles me. He constructed the roster and it has failed this team in a big way. But even with this abomination of a front court, Mizzou could still be a tourney lock in sole possession of third place in the SEC positioning itself for a decent seed in March Madness if item No. 2 was not so bad. And that is where Haith is most at fault.
2) The Defense Is Worse: According to Kenpom.com, Missouri's offense is 21st in the country, as measured by AdjO (Adjusted offensive efficiency). Two years ago, in Haith's first season at Mizzou, the team ranked No. 1 in this statistic. You might remember, it went 30-4, won the Big 12 Conference tournament championship and then that was the end of the season. Nothing else happened. Seriously. OK, the Tigers lost to 15-seed Norfolk St. in what was one of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets of all time, but who really cares about that? Point being, Mizzou's offense has varied from stellar to very good under Haith.
Its defense, however, has been a far cry from that.
Its defense, however, has been a far cry from that.
In 2012, Mizzou ranked 148th in AdjD (Adjusted defensive efficiency) and that showed up all season including the finale to Norfolk State. They could literally outscore anyone, but they could also be outscored by almost anyone, including Norfolk State, apparently.
It's two years later and a Haith Mizzou team has yet to rank outside of the top-25 in AdjO and has yet to rank in the top 75 of AdjD. This year's Tigers rank a dreadful 148th in AdjD. You don't have to be spectacular on the defensive end to be a good team, but you have to be much, much better than 148th. This team would be approximately four games better if it ranked in the top 50 of AdjD. How much different does 23-5, 11-4 look? That's a team fighting for a top-five seed in the tournament, not fighting to be in the tournament itself. This is the most concerning trend of Haith's era at Mizzou.
Make the tourney or not this season, he deserves two more years in my book or anyone who is rational. Five years is standard and pretty much the minimum at programs not named Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, UCLA, Indiana and Duke.
I have no doubt Haith will be able to put together solid offensive teams who, for the most part, value possessions on the offensive end and are efficient scoring the basketball. His ability to get his guys to play defense is what concerns me and should concern any Mizzou basketball fan. Defense in basketball, especially college basketball, embodies the biggest cliches in sports. It truly is about heart and passion. There's a reason teams like Syracuse and Florida are consistently good, even when they don't have the loaded rosters. They play defense. If Haith is to ever reach the success that Mizzou fans will demand and clamor for, his teams will have to play much, much better defense. And honestly, that will likely determine whether or not he has a job in two years.
As for this year's prospects, they don't look great to put it mildly. Mississippi State and Texas A&M at home then Tennessee on the road. Mizzou will need to, at the bare minimum, go 2-1 and win a game in the SEC tournament to make the field. It will more likely need to finish 3-0 and win a game in the SEC tournament or go 2-1 and make it to the conference tournament championship game. I don't think this team is capable of winning four or five straight, so I'm betting on a 3-2 finish, which will leave Mizzou on the outside looking in.
If they make the tournament, Haith deserves credit. If they don't make the tournament, Haith deserves criticism, but in no way does it put him on the "hot seat."
It's ironic, really. This year and beyond at Mizzou, Haith's biggest defense will need to be his defense.
No comments:
Post a Comment