Alcides Freaking Escobar

In just over two weeks Alcides Escobar has gone from quite possibly the worst hitting everyday player to a legitimate threat every time he steps in the batters box. For the season Escobar is now hitting .255/.289/.322, but in his last 12 games, Escobar is hitting .512/.543/.744. And amazingly, he's actually getting hotter, as in his previous six games he is hitting .545/.583/.864 and that included his first home run of the season in Sunday's game vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.

"I'm feeling real comfortable right now," Escobar said. "I've been working with (hitting coach Kevin) Seitzer, and it's really paying off." (Via Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton)  

The first part of this post will involve some brief guy love toward hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, but the majority of the hubbub will deservedly go toward Escobar. Look, we have all seen the valiant work of Seitzer pay off in the seemingly rejuvenated career of Alex Gordon.

Some of that is in part due to his move to left field, but the majority of it goes to Seitzer for getting Gordon to change his approach at the plate and his swing mechanics. Thus, making Gordon more than simply a power threat, but rather a guy that can hit to all fields--with his power being to pull--and someone who can also draw a walk.

It seems as though Seitzer has applied similar tactics, to some degree, in fixing Escobar's Tony-Pena-Jr.-like approach at the plate. I can't emphasize enough how completely taken back I am with Escobar's sudden transformation from a guy that quite simply could not hit, to Nomar Garciapara in his prime. Seriously, if this keeps up Seitzer should run away with the Hitting Coach of the Year Award, if such an award existed.

Granted 12 games is an extremely small sample size and Escobar's overall numbers are still, .255/.289/.322. And I think it's a little ridiculous to expect anything eerily close to what Escobar has churned out these past couple weeks for the rest of the season. But I don't think it's out of the question for him to find a happy medium between his first 60 games and the past 12.

Escobar doesn't need to hit .300 to be an effective big league player. His defense is so goldgloveingly (yes, I made that up) exceptional that hitting between .250-.260 will be more than enough, especially in baseball's current post-steroid environment. I'm not afraid to go out on a limb and say that he's the best defensive shortstop this franchise has ever seen. To be honest, given the history of this franchise's success with at the position, it really isn't much of a stretch.

The Royals are 5-7 during Escobar's reign of terror on all things resembling pitching. This stretch has placed them into last place in the AL Central after losing in walk-off fashion on Sunday to the Cardinals while their Scandinavian division-mates simultaneously defeated the Padres in walk-off fashion as well.


Side story: I attended the Royals' first game of the four-game series against the Twins earlier this month. The Royals lost and later in the night at a watering hole in Wesport I spout off to some Twins fans who had made the trip down to lovely Kansas City. I pampered them with remarks about how their team's reign in the AL Central was over and that the Royals would take over as the supreme small-market contender. The Twins proceeded to sweep the four game series between the two clubs and are 14-2 since I made those comments. Suffice to say, I feel old lady karma is being a bit of a harsh bitch at this point in time.

I believe my comments will ultimately prove to be true and the Royals and Indians will in fact be battling it out for the AL Central for the next 5-10 years. However, at the moment I look like a bumbling drunken fool to the avid and foulmouthed Twins fans that were conned into a baseball conversation with me on that Thursday evening.

Back to Escobar, it's difficult for me, as I am not a scout, to truly evaluate what he is doing differently that has brought on this sudden surge of swing. But in my non-expert opinion it appears as though he is simply getting his hands through zone more quickly than before. This has allowed a bit of a power boost, as he is now hitting the ball on a line to all fields and has appeared to elevate the ball more frequently.

Now, this all sounds profound and good to me when I think about it and see it written in front of me, however, our boys at Fangraphs challenge my notions. The numbers don't back up my claim that he is hitting more line drives and elevating the ball with more frequency. In fact, he is doing it less.

A quick look at Escobar's splits support the obvious fact that he is hitting for more power and a higher average, but it challenges the notion that he is doing anything drastically different. In the month of June--when Escobar began his streak--16.4% of his balls have been line drives. Comparatively, he hit 21.9% line drive balls in May, a month in which he batted .209/.258/.244. Yes, he actually had a higher on base percentage than slugging percentage in 86 at bats in the month of May. Those kind of number are unheard of, and not in a good way.

For reference, Escobar's average thus far in the month of June is .369--one-hundred and sixty points higher than the previous month. Escobar has hit 60% of his balls on the ground in June compared to 50% in May. Lastly, he has hit 23.6% fly balls in June, while he hit 27.4% fly balls in May.

Please forgive me, as those are a lot of nerdy numbers to digest and I'm hardly a sabermetric magician myself. But, I think those numbers bring up a more interesting discussion when it comes to Escobar's brief, but sudden surge at the plate. Maybe, as is sometimes the case in baseball, he is just getting lucky. That's not to say that his numbers aren't attributed to whatever new adjustments he has made, but simply an extension on the thought that he might have been extremely unlucky in April and May.

The numbers at Fangraphs support the fact that he is not driving the ball or elevating it any more than he was when he was hitting below the Mendoza Line. In fact, he is doing it less than he was during those dreadful months. All of these factors when stacked up next to each other lend credit to the notion that the real Escobar is likely somewhere in between the nadir that paralleled Angel Berroa's fallout of baseball and his current Justin Beiber-like peak. (Seriously, when that kid hits puberty the jig had better be up or I will have lost all faith in mankind.)

When Escobar's hot streak subsides and all evaluations are completed on the subject, one thing will remain and that will be a batting average that sits in a respectable echelon of Major League Baseball. I think it is as safe to say that Escobar wasn't as bad as his .204 average suggested as it is to say that he is not as good as this current hot streak. What lies in between those two extremes is a valuable everyday shortstop who is exceptional with the glove and viable at the plate.

I think all Royals fans would be OK with that, I know I am.

Although it is too early to become infatuated with Escobar's sudden revival at the plate, It is never too early to be excited about the sensational glimpses that the 24-year-old big smiling Venezuelan kid displays. Couple that with an explosive swing from a 21-year-old hot shot at first base and many other talented sub 25-year-olds that have this Royals blogger believing he will have the last laugh in the dispute with his Twins counterparts on June 2, 2011.