Friday, June 3, 2011

The Time for Dayton is Coming

I spent the last post singing the praises of Eric Hosmer--possibly the cream of the loaded crop of Royals prospects. Hosmer exemplifies the impressive ability that the Dayton Moore administration has shown in scouting and developing "homegrown" talent.

He undoubtedly has once piece of the General Manager puzzle down pat, however there are serious flaws in the other areas of his approach. Making trades and free agent signings both factor into what it takes to be a good general manager. No team has ever been able to win with homegrown talent alone. Because, more times than not, some of the talent doesn't end up panning out at the big league level. Thus, holes are left to be filled on the roster. It is the GM's job to identify these holes and address them in free agency and trades. 

Thus far under Moore's watch the Royals have not been in a position for trades and free agency acquisitions to make much of a difference in terms of making the postseason. That is about to change. With all the talent that we know is coming and for that matter, has already come in the Royals farm system, it is important that Moore does well in these two areas. However, if recent history is any indication of future endeavors by Moore, then the results could be vastly underwhelming.  

The most glaring examples of Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazarro are an unfriendly reminder of just how bad Moore has done in trades. Both trades were ridiculed when made and rightfully so, but I remained optimistic over the Alberto Callaspo trade that brought O'Sullivan. However, when all you have to show for a productive infielder in Callaspo and arguably the Royals' best player in 2010, David Dejesus is--what look to be--two ineffective starters that don't figure to be in the team's long term plans, then they weren't good moves.

I'm not suggesting that the Royals should have held onto Callaspo and Dejesus, because they obviously didn't fit into the long term plans either. But that doesn't mean you HAVE to trade them. Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli says that the Royals might have traded Dejesus as part of a salary dump in order to get rid of his $6 million salary for 2011. And if that were the case, rather than trading him, they should have declined his option and since he was a Type B player they would have picked up a supplemental first-round draft pick this year.

Based on how deep this year's draft is and how well the Moore administration is at scouting and drafting talent, I think we all would prefer that over a player who produced the worst relief appearance IN MAJOR-LEAGUE HISTORY.

The O'Sullivan and Mazzaro examples are the most recent, but the list goes on with trades such as the Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs trade that had seemingly every baseball pundit shaking their head. Nunez, by the way, leads the league in saves with 19 for the Marlins. Jacobs, last I heard, was terrorizing minor-league pitching by crushing the occasional home run and throwing in lower-lippers that can be seen from outer space.

The reason this is all relevant is to demonstrate the faults of the Dayton Moore regime in making decisions outside of scouting and drafting at a time where he will need to be at his best if the Royals are to seriously contend for a championship. Every baseball expert has the Royals pegged as the team to beat in the AL Central for the coming years due to all of the talent that is expected to arrive. However, as with anything in baseball, nothing is certain.

We know Eric Hosmer is going to produce and we know Danny Duffy looks like a quality starter, but are the bats of Hosmer and Moustakas going to be enough to offset the small sticks of Esbobar and Christian Colon up the middle? And, better yet, is Colon even the answer at second base-- at age 22, in just over 175 AB's in AA, Colon is hitting .239/.308/.318.? Also, who will play catcher and will he be able to handle such a presumably young rotation? Salvador Perez figures to be the answer there, but he doesn't figure to be with the Royals until the 2013 season unless he takes significant strides at AA Northwest Arkansas.

These are all questions that will arise and will have to be addressed and there are likely others that will pop up in the outfield as well. If the Royals are competing for a division title they will have to address these needs in free agency, but they will also have to do so through trades. Part of having a loaded farm system with prospects all over the place, is using them as trade pieces to add established and proven big-league talent. This is something we have not yet seen from Moore, because the Royals aren't competing and there is no need to trade a Mike Montgomery and Wil Myers to grab a bat at second or a frontline rotation guy like Felix Hernandez. (Completely hypothetical and it would take more than that to get King Felix)

But if the Royals are going to be as good as everyone thinks they will be then moves similar to these will have to be made. Which means Moore will have to part with his talent, not Allard Baird's. And more importantly, he'll have to make wise decisions about what certain proven players are worth in terms of minor-league prospects. His track record in swapping major-league players is abysmal from what we've seen, but it will be his ability to trade prospects for proven talent coupled with wise free-agency acquisitions that will ultimately determine the Royals future championship hopes.

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