After Wednesday's narrow defeat at Dallas the Houston Rockets are a full game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The 88-86 loss to the Mavericks was the latest disappointment in a season that's been full of them. The Rockets (38-40) trail the Utah Jazz (39-39) by a game in the standings with four left to play.
They have more than a puncher's chance to sneak in to the final slot, with their final four games against cellar dwellers in the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings, while the Jazz and Mavericks square off against each other in the penultimate game of the season. The Jazz also host the Clippers and have a road test at Denver.
All of that, however, is backdrop, while larger questiond about this Rockets' season loom, including: what happened? This is virtually the same team that went 56-26 last season and reached the conference finals. To go from that to this — a dysfunctional group of misfit toys on the brink of missing the postseason in a year where the Western Conference is as mediocre as its been in a decade — is perplexing.
On the surface, James Harden has followed up the best season of his career with an equally impressive 2015-16 campaign. The numbers (28.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 6.3 rpg.) are actually up from last year and his 25.05 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is just a tick off his 26.76 pace last year. However, if you've watched the Rockets this season, you know that's not close to true. Harden's played great the second half of the season, but it was what he did the first few weeks of the season that set the tone for this year. He was in the news during the offseason for activities not related to basketball, namely, his involvement with the least-desirable Kardashian. And he showed up to camp overweight. Say what you will about his private life (though dating a Kardashian is a documented terrible idea for any athlete), but when the team's star player shows up to camp out of shape and overweight, that's never a good sign.
The Rockets, unsurprisingly, stumbled out of the gates and got off to an 4-7 start. Kevin McHale took the fall for the poor start and was fired; never mind the fact Harden was atrocious during the lackluster start to the season while he tried to play his way into shape J.B. Bickerstaff took over, to the delight of Harden, who undoubtedly played a large role in McHale's firing, and the team has more or less been the same in the 67 games that have followed.
I'm not going to use this space to try and delve into what has ailed the Rockets this year. It's really been a combination of things. Dwight Howard is no longer a premier big man in a league that has slowly gravitated away from the low-post game. His defensive prowess is mitigated when team's go to the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that includes stretch 5's, dragging him out to an uncomfortable space on the perimeter. Plus, he's not nearly the same rebounder he used to be and is almost unplayable down the stretch due to is abysmal free-throw shooting. He and Harden found glimpses of synergy last season and it resulted in some wonderful pick-and-roll combinations, which helped fuel the playoff run. But neither has been on the same page this season. Josh Smith hasn't provided the same ineffable boost this season. Terrence Jones, who at times looked like he was coming into his own as a quality power forward last season, has been a disaster this year and has seen his minutes decrease in favor of Clint Capela. Sadly, one of the main positives of the year has been the pleasant surprise of Michael Beasley on the offensive end — though he still hasn't fully grasped the evolving analytics of how stupid taking 20-foot twos are, but I digress.
None of that of course matters much. What matters is this team has been a lost cause, for this season anyway, since late January and the inability of GM Daryl Morey to realize this has set the franchise back. It was quite obvious whatever magic the team had captured last year was not going to suddenly manifest itself in 2015-16, so with Howard's impending free agency, it would've been prudent to blow it up at the trade deadline.
It's true, the Rockets wouldn't have gotten a great haul for Howard, but moving him went beyond acquiring assets. Fair or unfair, there's very little to gain for a team like the Rockets from sneaking into the eight spot of the playoffs and much to lose from finishing ninth or 10th. This is not a young team trying to mold itself into a title contender, taking baby steps along the way. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Outside of Harden, whose 26, it's an aging and declining roster that can point to who else as a young building block? Capela?
This "playoff hunt" masks the fact the Rockets face an unstable and uncertain future. Harden, under contract through 2019, has to be the star to build around. And despite how unappealing that sounds, given what's occurred this season, he is still unquestionably one of the ten best players in the league and you have to have at least one of "those guys" if you aspire to win a title. The problem, however, is the short list of players who appear to want to play with him. Morey has a proven track record of swinging for the fences in free agency. It's unclear though who he'd be able to bring in to pair alongside Harden.
Thus, the focus might have to be the draft.
Trading Howard and perhaps Ariza at the deadline would've served twofold. It brought back assets and provided a chance to see what the team looks like with Harden as the absolute focal point with perhaps some young players around him. If it didn't work out, it also quietly served as a silent tanking mechanism that would've allowed the team to sneak up the draft board to add a much-needed young building block. The Pelicans, who admittedly got off to a much worse start than the Rockets, identified the season as a lost cause at the appropriate time and have rested, err, been blessed with injuries to key cogs like Anthony Davis the final couple months of the season allowing them to vault up the draft lottery.
Morey and the Rockets would've been wise to employ the same tactic. But instead they fooled themselves into believing this core would recapture last season's form and make it into the playoffs with a real shot to make a run. That's not a strategy, it's hope. And you don't win championships based off hope. Morey, an accomplished GM with a keen eye for analytics, should know this better than anyone.
His inaction at the deadline undermined his own long-term goals for this franchise and it complicated the rebuilding efforts going forward. The Rockets will pick in the bottom part of the lottery at best where they're unlikely to find a difference maker — though Tyler Ullis is an interesting option at point guard. It's a far cry from where they were at this point last season and the fall has no doubt been swift.
Morey and Harden carry the most responsibility, thus bear the most blame. The ramifications from this year will extend well beyond next year and both are culpable in what has proven to be a disastrous season.
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