The Royals Lineup Game

As the Kansas City Royals returned to action this past weekend against the Twins after a peculiar two-games-in-five-days start to the season, I'd like to delve into the age-old game of critiquing Ned Yost's lineup. Pardon me, that's World Series Champion Manager Ned Yost.

It's true, criticizing anything about the Royals these days seems a bit like malpractice, given the overwhelming success the organization has had the past two seasons. However, that doesn't mean they are beyond reproach. Yost especially.

The seasoned manager has done some things I've really liked over the past couple years and I think he's really grown into the role. He's adapted, especially in the postseason, the way he goes about his decision-making process in many regards. Though history will forget his numerous errors and recognize him as the guy who helped transform baseball's doormat into a model franchise of sorts. But the entire Royals fan base had him fired midway through the 2014 Wild Card game and, perhaps, for justifiable reasons.

Yost has never been particularly adept at the skill of in-game managing, but he's always been revered for his ability to mold together a club house and it's hard to argue his style hasn't been beneficial to this team. But, that's neither here nor there.

I'm here to assess his 2016 linuep. Which, for now, is as follows:

1) Alcides Escobar 
2) Mike Moustakas 
3) Lorenzo Cain 
4) Eric Hosmer 
5) Kendrys Morales 
6) Alex Gordon 
7) Sal Perez
8) Omar Infante 
9) Raymond Fuentes 

This is the second year in a row that Yost has convinced himself Escobar is a different hitter at the top of the order. And that belief is rooted in Escobar's postseason success at the leadoff spot, which is real, as he hit .329/.347/.514 in last year's playoffs, including a .478/.481/.652 line against Toronto which earned him ALCS MVP.  But it's also an extremely small sample size. Without getting off track too much and dissecting the imposible theory of whether certain players are more "clutch" than others, it's certainly not disputable that Escobar has been a much better hitter in the postesason than in the regular season where he is a career .300 OBP guy.

That sort of thing can be hidden in 15-20 games if a player gets hot. It can't be in a 162-game season. Escobar is 29. He is who he is at this point in his career. Over the course of a full season, the Royals are a better team if he is receiving less plate appearances than say, Alex Gordon, a career .350 OBP guy who is coming off a career-high .377 OBP season last year, yet is once again slotted in the six hole. The Royals are a better team if Gordon is receiving the 30 or so plate appearance he loses from being so far down in the lineup.

Moustakas, slotted once again in the two hole to begin the season, is also an ill-advised decision. Though it was more head-scratching last season, given the fact Moustakas was nearly a lost cause at the plate as a big leaguer, with his best season coming as a rookie in 2011 when he hit .263/.309/.367. To his credit, Moustakas, almost remarkably, completely retooled his swing and his approach at the plate to destroy the shift to the tune of .356/.420/.522 the first month of the season. He cooled off in ensuing months and eventually was relegated back to the six hole in the lineup, but he went on to post, by far, the best season of his career with a .284/.348/.470 line.

Moustakas turning into a revelation at the plate was a huge reason why the Royals were so good last season. And there are certainly more egregious choices than slotting him second in the lineup. However, it's fair to expect him to be a tick off his 2015 campaign, especially in the on-base department, given how drastic an improvement it was from his career averages where he remains a .300 OPB hitter.

The Royals' most optimal lineup, to me, looks something like this (career averages included):

1) Gordon .268/.348/.434
2) Cain .286/.336./.417
3) Hosmer .280/.337/.427
4) Morales .274/.330/.465
5) Moustakas .247/.303/.401
6) Perez .278/.306/.431
7) Colon/Infante .303/.365/.381 ... .272/.309/.388
8) Fuentes/Dyson .255/.320/.343
9) Escobar .262/.298/.344


It's minor changes, of course. And even if it operated at optimal form, it's worth maybe two wins on the season. But two wins is two wins. Despite the success the past three years, the Royals' lineup had been below average until last season. Cain has turned into a fascinating player — always a defensive gem who has suddenly found himself at the plate and turned into one of the game's best players. He is, for now, the Royals best player and hitter and should be slotted accordingly in the two hole. Gordon, one of the few anomalies on a team who strikes out so rarely, has a propensity to whiff far more often than his teammates while also drawing more walks, making him an ideal leadoff guy for this club.

Power is appropriately placed in the middle of the order while an interesting mixture rounds out the bottom third of the order with good OBP (FREE COLON) and speed resides.

This is all a moot point, however. The Royals, and Ned Yost specifically, believe they have a magic formula with Escobar leading off. And though it makes zero sense analytically, it has been conducive to success in where it matters most: in the postseason. But you have to get to the postseason in order to deploy the strategy and a better lineup construction would aid that.

As was the case last season, I fully expect the necessary changes to be made in June or July. So for now, enjoy the free-swinging spectacle to start off Royals games.