A Royally Bad Start

Why the Royals 7-14 start is worse than you might think

On Wednesday the Royals fell 5-2 to the White Sox to complete a miserable road trip in which they lost seven straight games to the Rangers and White Sox. They are 7-14 and come back home to Kansas City this weekend to close out the month with a three-game series against the Twins.

Now while it should be noted that 7-14 stretches happen over the course of a 162-game season, even to playoff teams, the circumstances surrounding this stretch and what it means in the grand scheme of things exacerbate the slow start.

You see, the Royals don't have 141 games to turn this thing around. They have impending free agents up and down their lineup, a few of whom would be very valuable trade commodities for a team that has a less-than-stellar farm system and will be rebuilding beginning next season.

Thus, the Royals essentially have until the end of June, maybe the second week of July when the All-Star Game occurs, to turn things around and prove they are a contender. Using that metric, they have 67 games left to assert themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.

The most concerning thing, however, is the manner in which the Royals have reached the 7-14 mark. It's not a string of bad luck and close losses. They have a -33 run differential and have a major-league worst 54 runs in 21 games. The Royals, in their current makeup, I'm quite certain are not this bad. I believe it to be a bad month, one in which the offense has been inconceivably bad for a variety of reasons.

Unfortunately, the "it's early" logic doesn't apply to a team like the Royals once the calendar turns to May. The Royals do not have the benefit of a full schedule. With the rest of the American League, particularly the Central's performance also under consideration, the Royals likely need to go something like 40-27 over the next 67 games to avoid a necessary fire sale at the deadline. That would put them at 47-41, with, you would expect, a positive run differential and on the fringes of a playoff spot.

But the worst-case scenario might also be the more likely one. And that's the Royals playing about six or seven games above .500 over the next 67 to have a record of 44-44 or thereabouts. Depending on where that would put the Royals relative to the rest of the AL contenders will obviously be a major factor in how Dayton Moore decides to move forward.

Moore's track record suggests he'll allow this group to make a run at the postseason and even add pieces to shore up weak spots to aid them, because he has the utmost belief in his players. The caveat to that, however, is that he had little choice in 2013 and 2014. He had essentially gone all in ahead of the 2013 season by executing the Wil Myers-James Shields (now Wade Davis) trade. The Royals core was still young and all under contract for three or four more years. It made little sense to sell at the deadline.

In 2014, Moore was in year eight of being in charge and faced a make-or-break season. The Royals limped out of the All-Star break with four consecutive losses to fall to 48-50. Many called for them to blow it up and start over, because this group couldn't get it done. The Process had failed. The one problem with that logic was that blowing it up meant Moore would be in essence handing in his resignation letter to David Glass. He had no choice but to let the team try and work through their struggles and hope they could make a push to the first postseason since 1985. As we know, they got hot and did just that. And they stayed hot all the way to the World Series.

This isn't 2013 or 2014 though. The Royals have big-name free agents at the end of the season in Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Essentially the core of the World Series teams. What will Moore do if the Royals are six games out and hovering around .500 as the deadline nears?

That is the nightmare scenario for this organization, because the worse thing that can happen this season is the Royals falling woefully short of making the postseason having not got any return on their expiring assets. It could set the franchise back at least a couple years.

The far more prudent decision in that circumstance would be for Moore to recognize the slim chances and sell off what valuable assets he can in order to restock the farm system and accelerate the rebuild. But Moore has never faced this particular situation, so how he handles it is anyone's guess.

The Royals, of course, could make things easy on Moore and go on a 43-24 tear or do the opposite and go 30-37 over the next 67. Those are the ideal scenarios.

The 7-14 start, however, complicates things immensely and sets things up for a dicey couple of months for the franchise and its future.

Nowhere to run

The Royals' 1-0 loss to the Red Sox on Saturday, dropping Zach Greinke's record to 1-6 with a 3.39 ERA, got me thinking. Now there are numerous things to think about after starting off a four game series by scoring 16 runs and winning the first two and then scoring a combined 1 run in the next two and taking two L's. But the most concerning to me is the well-publicized and well-documented lack of run support that Greinke is receiving. And trust me its on its way to historically bad in the baseball universe.

In 11 starts this year Greinke has given up 26 ER and the Royals are 2-9 in his starts. Greinke is average almost 7 innings per start, (6.27) that means that on average Greinke is leaving the game after seven innings having given up two ER and the Royals have a .180 winning % in those starts.

The Royals are averaging 2.97 runs per-Greinke start, by far the worst on the Royals (Luke Hochevar with a 5 ERA is receiving 5.81 runs per start) This stat figures how many runs the Royals have scored for Greinke in games that he's started, not how many runs the Royals have scored with Greinke in the game...which believe it or not is much worse. The Royals have twice been shutout when Greinke has been pitching, but four times have not scored a run while Greinke was still in the game.

The Royals have scored 33 runs in 11 Greinke starts as the 2.97 run support that I eluded to before shows. However the Royals have only scored 20 total runs, thats right 20 runs while Greinke was in the game, which was found to be 7 innings, that breaks down to being 1.8 runs. Now to be fair to the offense, sort of, the bullpen blew four of the leads that Greinke held after exiting the game. Which surprisingly enough means had the bullpen been steady (crazy, right?) then the Royals would be 6-5 in Greinke's starts. Which is above .500, but considering what Greinke has done is still quite awful.

Now some may say that the reason for the Royals 2nd-in-the league BA, that we are constantly reminded of, seems to go away in Greinke starts is due to the opposing team's Ace is also on the mound. And for now that's possibly the only reasonable explanation, but I'm not buying it. Sure, it's easier to hit off Barry Zito, than it is Tim Lincecum, but that doesn't mean you can't occasionally get three runs and chase The Freak after 6, which the 1.8 runs suggest the Royals are not anywhere close to achieving.

So, I'll take the skeptic approach and suggest that it has to do with the Royals approach at the plate whenever Greinke is toeing the rubber. Forget a numbers standpoint, the Royals just look like a different team batting. Their approach is sloppy, not working counts, allowing the starter to go on average 6.1 innings a game, which is only that low due to Rockies starter, Aaron Cook getting chased after 4.1 IP and 4 ER. Conveniently Greinke decided to have his worst start of the year and was chased after 3.1 IP and gave up 7 ER.

Perhaps their approach is so relaxed due to what they know they have in Greinke? They know that every time Greinke goes out there it's going to be a low scoring game, where a few big hits will win the game. So the hitters come to the plate with that mentality. The mentality of "I can go 1-5 today and work 10 total pitches, as long as that one hit is a three-run dinger." We've all seen how this approach has worked out. Instead they should be coming to the plate with the mentality of working the count, drawing a walk, or trying to make contact. You know, the approach that every Big League hitter should have.

It's nearly a third of the way through the season, and the Royals have established themselves as pretenders, which I think all Royals fans expected. So trade talk will loom with Jose Guillen and maybe a few other Royals. But the Royals biggest concern right now should be giving their Cy Young a little run-support before the 2007 Greinke makes an ugly return. Do I think that will happen? No. But it wouldn't hurt to ensure that it won't by taking a better approach at the plate and an overall different approach as a team whenever #23 is on the hill.

It could go a long way in 2012 when the Royals are ready to make a run at a World Series..or is it 2014 now, Dayton?

Billy Butler

There haven't been too many bright spots on a Royals team this year, that many, (including myself) were duped into thinking had a chance to compete for the division, or at least flirt with .500. But, sadly, that hasn't been the case with the Royals yet again, so we as fans, are forced to try and look at the few things that are right on this team.

The obvious bright spot being Grienke, who leads the league in ERA at a clip of 2.08. And if it weren't for the abysmal offense, and at often times horrid bullpen, he would be leading the league in wins as well.

But I would like to take a closer look at an up-and-coming star on this Royals team, Billy Butler. I for one was always an "Alex Gordon guy" when the two were coming up in the minors together, and always looked at Butler as an overweight DH that can't play the field and can't hit more than 10 home runs in a season. And although it is too soon to officially label Gordon a bust, it is safe to say that Butler is the better bet to be a solid player in this league.

After last season and the start of this season I began to give up on Butler as a potential 30 home run guy, and wasn't encouraged by his .285 career average either. So I decided to extrapolate the numbers over Butler's 3 years in the big leagues. And so far in 98 games, Butler has hit a career high 31 doubles with 60 games to go (he hit 22 in 124 games last season) Now when I see this statistic, it tells me a couple things: 1. Butler has developing power that as I've witnessed isn't quite big league power but good enough to hit the gaps. 2. Butler isn't Carlos Gomez, so he's not legging out these doubles, which means they're well hit balls to the wall.

The next statistic to look at when a guy is showing potential to hit for home run power, is walks. Butler in 99 games has drawn 31 BB. Not fantastic but a big improvement from the 33 that he had all last season. When the number of BB starts to increase in a young hitter, it means he is learning plate discipline and that will ultimately lead to more home runs, just ask Albert Pujols. Butler's OPS has also gone up significantly at .806, as well as a spike in his strike outs, 64, but he is still wavering around a .300 average. Butler may only have 47 rbi's, but it's not exactly his fault that no one is on base in front of him when he's raking all these doubles.

Now I'm not saying that an increase in strikeouts is a good thing, but it does, when compiled with the aforementioned statistics show a sign in a hitter having potential for increasing home run power. Now to get to my main stat line, home runs, Butler has 11. Not earth shattering, not even all that impressive, string-bean Short stop Alexei Ramirez has 11 as well. But that ties the total that Butler came up with last year, and I look for him to be able to approach 20 this year, but more than likely finish somewhere in the mid-teens.

ESPN the Magazine, at the beginning of last season in their, "Fantasy Baseball" issue, labeled Butler a "fantasy stud." They predicted him to hit over .300 drive in over 100 and hit 30 home runs. They were slightly off, but more so, slightly early with their predictions. I don't believe Butler will ever possess those numbers in his career, but he definitely has the potential to put up numbers close to that in the coming years.

So what I look for in Butler next season, aside from another abysmal performance in the field, is a 25-30 home run type year, along with a wealth of doubles, but less so than he's going to put up this year, because some of those balls are going to start getting out of the park. I also expect an increase in walks and strikeouts once again for Butler, all while actually achieving above a .300 average.

The Royals are all about the future, unfortunately, and for Butler as a big league hitter, the future is bright.

Introduction to Blog

I love KC sports (though sometimes I wonder why), so this blog will be dedicated to the Royals, Chiefs and the occasional Missouri Tigers football and basketball postings. I got the idea to start this blog from my current favorite blog on the internet: http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/ 

He tells it to you straight, good or bad, when it comes to the Royals and that's what you can expect from me. 

First things first, I'm very passionate about the aforementioned teams, but I'm an intelligent fan and a journalist in the process, so I'm not gonna sugarcoat an issue I have with any of those teams. I'll give it to you straight, because that's what I believe in and the whole reason I started this blog. 

My thoughts won't always be factual or warranted, but that's the beauty of having a blog, they don't have to be!  I'm still learning at this writing thing and hope someday it will go along with my vast knowledge of sports in order to become a good sports writer. 

I'm looking to start posting the "good stuff" as soon as possible and will obviously start out with what's current, and sadly that's the Royals. I will, however, try and start out on a positive note to begin my Royals' postings, by talking about my take on Billy Butler's progression this season and what kind of player I project him out to be in the future. 

That's all for now, looking forward to get this thing started!