The Royals lost to the Giants 2-1 in 11 innings on Tuesday in what was the latest episode of futility for the struggling Royals offense. They have scored 39 runs in 13 games for an average of three runs per game. That is bad.
While there's multiple parties to blame for the low output thus far — Alex Gordon has a .513 OPS batting leadoff, Brandon Moss is at .592 as the team's DH, Paulo Orlando has an unthinkable -14 OPS+ and Raul Mondesi has a whopping OPS+ of 2 — the focus of this piece is Eric Hosmer.
To further exacerbate his dreadful start to the 2017 season, Hosmer came up in two critical late-inning spots against the Giants and failed both times. With the bases loaded amid a 1-1 game in the eighth and two outs, Hosmer grounded out to first base.
Facing lefty Steven Okert, Hosmer offered at a first pitch well outside the strike zone to fall behind 0-1. He laid off a similarly wild second pitch to even the count. He then, however, swung violently at the 1-1 offering that was inside, in an attempt to pull the ball. He instead fouled it off and fell behind 1-2.
At this point Okert has thrown three pitches well out of the zone with the bases loaded and the game on the line, yet he's ahead in the count thanks to Hosmer's impatience.
Sensing Hosmer's obvious overzealous approach, Okert threw Hosmer another breaking ball inside in hopes of a big pull swing. He got it and Hosmer grounded out harmlessly to first.
Thanks to some great bullpen work, the Royals again had a great opportunity to win the game, this time in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. Mike Moustakas blooped a one-out single to center and Lorenzo Cain followed by lacing a single to center, putting runners on first and second with one out. Hosmer, the club's cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate again with a chance to win the game.
This time, facing righty Derek Law, Hosmer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. The Giants scored in the top of the 11th and won the game 2-1.
The fact Hosmer failed to deliver in both situations, on balance, isn't incredibly telling or unusual. Baseball players, even the best ones, fail in crucial spots all the time. It's part of the game. What is interesting and incredibly troubling is how predictable the manner in which Hosmer failed, a ground ball to the right side, was.
It's been well documented at this point, but it's perplexing enough that it warrants repeated mentioning: Hosmer, all 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds of him, is a groundball machine. And in his sixth season, at age 27, it isn't getting better; it's getting worse.
Last year Hosmer was second in all of baseball with an astounding 58.9 percent groundball rate. He hit line drives just 16.5 percent of the time and fly balls just 24.7 percent of the time. His GB/FB ratio was 2.38, up from 2.13 in 2015 which was up from 1.61 in 2014. This year his GB/FB ratio is 4.33 and he 63.4 percent of his batted balls in play have been groundballs. As a result, he's hit into a league-high six groundball double plays so far while batting .200/.259/.260.
It's a problem.
I have no doubt Hosmer will find his groove and climb his way back to respectable numbers. But the groundball issue is real and it has perpetuated itself. It is a byproduct of his swing, which he seems hell-bent on sticking with.
Hosmer has no issue generating power with his swing and he hasn't his entire career. His average home-run distance consistently ranks near the very top of the league. The problem is he's topped just 20 home runs once in his career, hitting a career-high 25 last season. Hosmer's average exit velocity this season is a little more than 90 mph, which is above league average. However, per Baseball Savant, Hosmer's launch angle is just under five degrees; the league average is 13 degrees.
It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's on the ground. At best it's a single, at worst, and much more frequently, it's an out. For someone with Hosmer's power, hitting ground balls should be a very rare occurence. Instead, it's the norm.
This poor start by Hosmer is bad for both parties. He's in a contract year and his agent, the all-powerful Scott Boras floated out the $200 million figure soon after Hosmer won the All-Star game MVP last season. Hosmer was in the midst of a decline that hasn't slowed entering the mid-July contest, but his numbers still looked pretty. He was hitting .324/.382/.547 after a June 10 win over the White Sox. From June 11 to the end of the season Hosmer hit .232/.297/.366 to finish with an OPS of .758 and a wRC+ right at league average of 101.
Hosmer isn't getting $200M even with a career-best season, mainly because his best season (.297/.363/.459 in 15) ranks around the middle of the pack for first basemen. Boras will tout Hosmer's winning pedigree, the ASG MVP, his clutch hitting and heroics in the postseason, but the reality is this: Hosmer to date is a light-hitting first baseman with a penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. He's a slightly lesser version than the Giants Brandon Belt, who received 5 years-$72.8M.
If that's where the market settles on Hosmer, then I'm quite certain the Royals would jump at the chance to bring him back. Hosmer though, through Boras' negotiation skills and the propensity for at least one GM being stupid enough to buy a player's perceived star power rather than assessing his actual overall value, likely gets more. The Royals would be very wise to let him walk and reallocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Because unless Hosmer overhauls his swing and takes the path of Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez and others, he is only going to get worse with age.
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