With the Royals headed into the tank at a rapid pace, I find it necessary to deflect my attention from the play on the field. Lets face it, the Royals are an extremely young team, in fact, the youngest in the majors. Couple that with abysmal starting pitching and, well, you get the product that you are currently viewing.
There will be ups and there will be downs, with the latter occurring more frequently. Anyone who had thoughts of the Royals competing for anything significant this season just wasn't looking closely enough. When you tout Luke Hochevar as your "opening day starter" and throw out Kyle Davies every five starts, unless your other three are Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, and Tim Lincecum--you're probably not going to be very good.
I'm OK with that and most reasonable fans should be, considering what waits in the wings. Dayton Moore has told us for years to "trust the process," and for most of us, that meant we shouldn't realistically expect the Royals to compete until 2012. That has been my train of thought for the past three seasons. Sure, Moore has confused some people with big acquisitions, such as Jose Guillen and Gil Meche--which enhanced the expectation time table--but in reality were nothing more than flare to hold the interest until "the process" came to fruition. (I believe Meche was meant for the future and was ruined by Trey Hillman, but that topic is for a different day.)
We as fans waited for the likes of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy and others to make their way to Kansas City and begin the youth movement. I fully expected this year's product to be bad, given the opening day roster. But I knew what was coming later in the year, so I didn't mind the prospects of watching a 100-loss team, as long as they were infused with young talent by the end of the year. So far, the season that I envisioned has began to take shape, as top prospects like Crow, Hosmer, Duffy, and Moustakas are all on the roster. And I fully expect more to be up before the season is over.
However, I stumbled across a disturbing tweet from Royals beat writer, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, who alluded that the Royals planned to recall Kyle Davies after a rehab start in AA and send Duffy back down to AAA. If this transaction does in fact come to fruition then Dayton Moore is less competent then I give him credit for.
This move would be ignorant on so many different levels that it would be nearly impossible to dissect, but I will attempt to do so nonetheless. For starters--something that Davies is not at the big league level (badaboom)--Davies has the highest ERA of any major league pitcher with at least 120 starts, ever. That's right, no pitcher in the history of baseball has amassed over 120 starts with an ERA as bad as Davies' 5.60 in 140 career starts. You know why? Because nobody with that bad of an ERA is allowed to make that many starts. They are either moved to the bullpen, demoted, or released.
In Davies case, it took an injury to do what Moore so obliviously could not. And after the Royals were given this beautiful gift, they appear likely to throw it away. Not only that, they plan to take away invaluable experience from the club's only promising young pitcher at the moment, in favor of the guy I just outlined. How much more evidence do you need to realize that Kyle Davies is not--and never will be--a major league starter?
Danny Duffy is as much apart of this team's future as Hosmer, Crow, and Moustakas are. Yet, it doesn't appear that he is being treated that way even though, as a starting pitcher, he resides at the team's most critical position. It would make more sense to keep Moustakas down in AAA while Wilson Betemit performs adequately at third base in an attempt to showcase him before the trade deadline. You know why? Because Betemit actually has trade value. Sure, there will be a team that might take a chance on Davies, but they sure as hell won't give up any prospects for him. Thus, he is a non-commodity. I would have no problem if Moustakas was held down for a few more weeks while Betemit hit .300 and continued to boost his trade value. Instead, Moose is playing everyday at third base, while Betemit's rear remains firmly planted on the bench.
IF the Royals are serious about competing in 2012 then they will need Duffy to have as many innings under his belt as possible. He must learn how to get through 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches, or better yet, learn how to get through 4 innings doing the same. His stuff is ready, but his command and mound presence needs work. The only way he will get the proper work needed is if he stays in the majors. Unfortunately, Moore seems content to sacrifice all this in order to get a few more starts out of his 27-year-old Atlanta Braves project that has proven nothing.
Note: On June 27 the Royals announced that they would move to a six-man rotation in order to keep Duffy in rotation, while still bringing Davies up. Not ideal, but I suppose Moore met me and other sane Royals fans halfway.
This move prompted the sad, but accurate tweet from national baseball writer, Joe Sheehan: The #Royals are going to a six-man rotation just to make room for one of the worst SPs in MLB history. The most Royals move ever.
Moore's lovefest with Davies reminds me of that dude in college whose girlfriend is cheating on him and everyone, including him deep down, knows it. And when his friends tell him about it he makes an even bigger ass of himself by insisting that she can change, so he continues to date her--and she continues to cheat.
Moore continues to believe in Davies and he continues to suck.
The biggest concern to me and perhaps the more important matter at hand is the big picture implications that a move like this would have. If Moore is willing to supplant a definite part of the clubs' future rotation for a guy that has no future in any rotation, then I simply cannot take his claims of competing in 2012 serious. It is mind boggling to me how Moore can be so committed to the future, almost to a fault, at one juncture, then completely ignore it soon after.
The move has not yet taken place, but if it does, then I think it signals a serious concern that most educated Royals fans really don't want to face. That is, their GM is contradicting his own youth movement. If you're going to blow up the system then blow it up. Don't say you're going skinny dipping and then leave your boxers on. My digressing analogies are merely trying to illustrate the pull-out move that Moore appears prepared to make.
I'm not saying, turn over the roster and bring up every prospect the club has. I'm simply suggesting that if you're going to deem a prospect major-league ready, then don't send him down after he performs adequately in order to feature a piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit.
It has been well documented how committed Moore is to his Atlanta guys, but it borders on ridiculous when his loyalty interferes with his own plan for the Royals' future.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Alcides Freaking Escobar
In just over two weeks Alcides Escobar has gone from quite possibly the worst hitting everyday player to a legitimate threat every time he steps in the batters box. For the season Escobar is now hitting .255/.289/.322, but in his last 12 games, Escobar is hitting .512/.543/.744. And amazingly, he's actually getting hotter, as in his previous six games he is hitting .545/.583/.864 and that included his first home run of the season in Sunday's game vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
"I'm feeling real comfortable right now," Escobar said. "I've been working with (hitting coach Kevin) Seitzer, and it's really paying off." (Via Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton)
The first part of this post will involve some brief guy love toward hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, but the majority of the hubbub will deservedly go toward Escobar. Look, we have all seen the valiant work of Seitzer pay off in the seemingly rejuvenated career of Alex Gordon.
Some of that is in part due to his move to left field, but the majority of it goes to Seitzer for getting Gordon to change his approach at the plate and his swing mechanics. Thus, making Gordon more than simply a power threat, but rather a guy that can hit to all fields--with his power being to pull--and someone who can also draw a walk.
It seems as though Seitzer has applied similar tactics, to some degree, in fixing Escobar's Tony-Pena-Jr.-like approach at the plate. I can't emphasize enough how completely taken back I am with Escobar's sudden transformation from a guy that quite simply could not hit, to Nomar Garciapara in his prime. Seriously, if this keeps up Seitzer should run away with the Hitting Coach of the Year Award, if such an award existed.
Granted 12 games is an extremely small sample size and Escobar's overall numbers are still, .255/.289/.322. And I think it's a little ridiculous to expect anything eerily close to what Escobar has churned out these past couple weeks for the rest of the season. But I don't think it's out of the question for him to find a happy medium between his first 60 games and the past 12.
Escobar doesn't need to hit .300 to be an effective big league player. His defense is so goldgloveingly (yes, I made that up) exceptional that hitting between .250-.260 will be more than enough, especially in baseball's current post-steroid environment. I'm not afraid to go out on a limb and say that he's the best defensive shortstop this franchise has ever seen. To be honest, given the history of this franchise's success with at the position, it really isn't much of a stretch.
The Royals are 5-7 during Escobar's reign of terror on all things resembling pitching. This stretch has placed them into last place in the AL Central after losing in walk-off fashion on Sunday to the Cardinals while their Scandinavian division-mates simultaneously defeated the Padres in walk-off fashion as well.
Side story: I attended the Royals' first game of the four-game series against the Twins earlier this month. The Royals lost and later in the night at a watering hole in Wesport I spout off to some Twins fans who had made the trip down to lovely Kansas City. I pampered them with remarks about how their team's reign in the AL Central was over and that the Royals would take over as the supreme small-market contender. The Twins proceeded to sweep the four game series between the two clubs and are 14-2 since I made those comments. Suffice to say, I feel old lady karma is being a bit of a harsh bitch at this point in time.
I believe my comments will ultimately prove to be true and the Royals and Indians will in fact be battling it out for the AL Central for the next 5-10 years. However, at the moment I look like a bumbling drunken fool to the avid and foulmouthed Twins fans that were conned into a baseball conversation with me on that Thursday evening.
Back to Escobar, it's difficult for me, as I am not a scout, to truly evaluate what he is doing differently that has brought on this sudden surge of swing. But in my non-expert opinion it appears as though he is simply getting his hands through zone more quickly than before. This has allowed a bit of a power boost, as he is now hitting the ball on a line to all fields and has appeared to elevate the ball more frequently.
Now, this all sounds profound and good to me when I think about it and see it written in front of me, however, our boys at Fangraphs challenge my notions. The numbers don't back up my claim that he is hitting more line drives and elevating the ball with more frequency. In fact, he is doing it less.
A quick look at Escobar's splits support the obvious fact that he is hitting for more power and a higher average, but it challenges the notion that he is doing anything drastically different. In the month of June--when Escobar began his streak--16.4% of his balls have been line drives. Comparatively, he hit 21.9% line drive balls in May, a month in which he batted .209/.258/.244. Yes, he actually had a higher on base percentage than slugging percentage in 86 at bats in the month of May. Those kind of number are unheard of, and not in a good way.
For reference, Escobar's average thus far in the month of June is .369--one-hundred and sixty points higher than the previous month. Escobar has hit 60% of his balls on the ground in June compared to 50% in May. Lastly, he has hit 23.6% fly balls in June, while he hit 27.4% fly balls in May.
Please forgive me, as those are a lot of nerdy numbers to digest and I'm hardly a sabermetric magician myself. But, I think those numbers bring up a more interesting discussion when it comes to Escobar's brief, but sudden surge at the plate. Maybe, as is sometimes the case in baseball, he is just getting lucky. That's not to say that his numbers aren't attributed to whatever new adjustments he has made, but simply an extension on the thought that he might have been extremely unlucky in April and May.
The numbers at Fangraphs support the fact that he is not driving the ball or elevating it any more than he was when he was hitting below the Mendoza Line. In fact, he is doing it less than he was during those dreadful months. All of these factors when stacked up next to each other lend credit to the notion that the real Escobar is likely somewhere in between the nadir that paralleled Angel Berroa's fallout of baseball and his current Justin Beiber-like peak. (Seriously, when that kid hits puberty the jig had better be up or I will have lost all faith in mankind.)
When Escobar's hot streak subsides and all evaluations are completed on the subject, one thing will remain and that will be a batting average that sits in a respectable echelon of Major League Baseball. I think it is as safe to say that Escobar wasn't as bad as his .204 average suggested as it is to say that he is not as good as this current hot streak. What lies in between those two extremes is a valuable everyday shortstop who is exceptional with the glove and viable at the plate.
I think all Royals fans would be OK with that, I know I am.
Although it is too early to become infatuated with Escobar's sudden revival at the plate, It is never too early to be excited about the sensational glimpses that the 24-year-old big smiling Venezuelan kid displays. Couple that with an explosive swing from a 21-year-old hot shot at first base and many other talented sub 25-year-olds that have this Royals blogger believing he will have the last laugh in the dispute with his Twins counterparts on June 2, 2011.
"I'm feeling real comfortable right now," Escobar said. "I've been working with (hitting coach Kevin) Seitzer, and it's really paying off." (Via Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton)
The first part of this post will involve some brief guy love toward hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, but the majority of the hubbub will deservedly go toward Escobar. Look, we have all seen the valiant work of Seitzer pay off in the seemingly rejuvenated career of Alex Gordon.
Some of that is in part due to his move to left field, but the majority of it goes to Seitzer for getting Gordon to change his approach at the plate and his swing mechanics. Thus, making Gordon more than simply a power threat, but rather a guy that can hit to all fields--with his power being to pull--and someone who can also draw a walk.
It seems as though Seitzer has applied similar tactics, to some degree, in fixing Escobar's Tony-Pena-Jr.-like approach at the plate. I can't emphasize enough how completely taken back I am with Escobar's sudden transformation from a guy that quite simply could not hit, to Nomar Garciapara in his prime. Seriously, if this keeps up Seitzer should run away with the Hitting Coach of the Year Award, if such an award existed.
Granted 12 games is an extremely small sample size and Escobar's overall numbers are still, .255/.289/.322. And I think it's a little ridiculous to expect anything eerily close to what Escobar has churned out these past couple weeks for the rest of the season. But I don't think it's out of the question for him to find a happy medium between his first 60 games and the past 12.
Escobar doesn't need to hit .300 to be an effective big league player. His defense is so goldgloveingly (yes, I made that up) exceptional that hitting between .250-.260 will be more than enough, especially in baseball's current post-steroid environment. I'm not afraid to go out on a limb and say that he's the best defensive shortstop this franchise has ever seen. To be honest, given the history of this franchise's success with at the position, it really isn't much of a stretch.
The Royals are 5-7 during Escobar's reign of terror on all things resembling pitching. This stretch has placed them into last place in the AL Central after losing in walk-off fashion on Sunday to the Cardinals while their Scandinavian division-mates simultaneously defeated the Padres in walk-off fashion as well.
Side story: I attended the Royals' first game of the four-game series against the Twins earlier this month. The Royals lost and later in the night at a watering hole in Wesport I spout off to some Twins fans who had made the trip down to lovely Kansas City. I pampered them with remarks about how their team's reign in the AL Central was over and that the Royals would take over as the supreme small-market contender. The Twins proceeded to sweep the four game series between the two clubs and are 14-2 since I made those comments. Suffice to say, I feel old lady karma is being a bit of a harsh bitch at this point in time.
I believe my comments will ultimately prove to be true and the Royals and Indians will in fact be battling it out for the AL Central for the next 5-10 years. However, at the moment I look like a bumbling drunken fool to the avid and foulmouthed Twins fans that were conned into a baseball conversation with me on that Thursday evening.
Back to Escobar, it's difficult for me, as I am not a scout, to truly evaluate what he is doing differently that has brought on this sudden surge of swing. But in my non-expert opinion it appears as though he is simply getting his hands through zone more quickly than before. This has allowed a bit of a power boost, as he is now hitting the ball on a line to all fields and has appeared to elevate the ball more frequently.
Now, this all sounds profound and good to me when I think about it and see it written in front of me, however, our boys at Fangraphs challenge my notions. The numbers don't back up my claim that he is hitting more line drives and elevating the ball with more frequency. In fact, he is doing it less.
A quick look at Escobar's splits support the obvious fact that he is hitting for more power and a higher average, but it challenges the notion that he is doing anything drastically different. In the month of June--when Escobar began his streak--16.4% of his balls have been line drives. Comparatively, he hit 21.9% line drive balls in May, a month in which he batted .209/.258/.244. Yes, he actually had a higher on base percentage than slugging percentage in 86 at bats in the month of May. Those kind of number are unheard of, and not in a good way.
For reference, Escobar's average thus far in the month of June is .369--one-hundred and sixty points higher than the previous month. Escobar has hit 60% of his balls on the ground in June compared to 50% in May. Lastly, he has hit 23.6% fly balls in June, while he hit 27.4% fly balls in May.
Please forgive me, as those are a lot of nerdy numbers to digest and I'm hardly a sabermetric magician myself. But, I think those numbers bring up a more interesting discussion when it comes to Escobar's brief, but sudden surge at the plate. Maybe, as is sometimes the case in baseball, he is just getting lucky. That's not to say that his numbers aren't attributed to whatever new adjustments he has made, but simply an extension on the thought that he might have been extremely unlucky in April and May.
The numbers at Fangraphs support the fact that he is not driving the ball or elevating it any more than he was when he was hitting below the Mendoza Line. In fact, he is doing it less than he was during those dreadful months. All of these factors when stacked up next to each other lend credit to the notion that the real Escobar is likely somewhere in between the nadir that paralleled Angel Berroa's fallout of baseball and his current Justin Beiber-like peak. (Seriously, when that kid hits puberty the jig had better be up or I will have lost all faith in mankind.)
When Escobar's hot streak subsides and all evaluations are completed on the subject, one thing will remain and that will be a batting average that sits in a respectable echelon of Major League Baseball. I think it is as safe to say that Escobar wasn't as bad as his .204 average suggested as it is to say that he is not as good as this current hot streak. What lies in between those two extremes is a valuable everyday shortstop who is exceptional with the glove and viable at the plate.
I think all Royals fans would be OK with that, I know I am.
Although it is too early to become infatuated with Escobar's sudden revival at the plate, It is never too early to be excited about the sensational glimpses that the 24-year-old big smiling Venezuelan kid displays. Couple that with an explosive swing from a 21-year-old hot shot at first base and many other talented sub 25-year-olds that have this Royals blogger believing he will have the last laugh in the dispute with his Twins counterparts on June 2, 2011.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Did someone order moose tacos?
The Royals called up Mike Moustakas from Omaha and optioned Mike Aviles just in time for the weekend road series against the Los Angeles Angels. The move not only demoted Aviles, but will also diminish the playing time of Wilson Betemit, who had been serving as the teams third baseman. It is most likely that Betemit will be dealt sometime before the July 15 trade deadline. With Moustakas taking over as the everyday third baseman the Royals now have a pair stationed in the hot corners who are not yet old enough to rent a car.
Thus, the future is here, at least in the infield.
The early returns from Moustakas have been positive, as he's not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also great plate discipline--drawing a walk in each of his first four games. According to Rany Jazayerli he's the first Royal to do that since, well, ever. With Moustakas hitting in the 6-hole, the Royals actually have a middle of the order that is viable. This is something that has been missing, among other things, with this franchise since the late 90s/early 2000s.
(3-Hosmer, 4-Butler, 5-Francouer, 6-Moustakas)
The average age of that group is a shade under 24. Take away Francouer, who figures to not fit into the team's long term plans, and the average age of the remaining three is 22.6. All three are under contract through 2016. That gives the Royals a minimum of five seasons to build around this core middle of the order. It is yet to be determined whether or not any are capable of hitting 30 home runs, but it is expected that Hosmer and Moustakas will.
I am not convinced that Alex Gordon will be the long term solution as the leadoff hitter, however, in 25 games he has hit .280/.361/.449 with 12 runs scored--more than adequate in that role. I still feel that he is hitting there out of necessity this season and has the type of power that you would like to see a little later in the order. But until an another option presents itself, you could do a lot worse than batting Gordon leadoff.
The arrival of Moustakas and Hosmer this season and their immediate impact signals the start of a very exciting youth movement that all of us Royals fans have been waiting for. However, it also signals the disparity, at this point, in big-league ready talent between position players and pitchers. Sure there is an abundance of pitching prowess in the minor leagues, but none of the arms, besides Duffy and possibly Mike Montgomery are close to ready. And there are tons of young arms already on the major league roster, but none, besides Duffy, are starting pitchers.
This is the most difficult part of building a winner. The Royals bullpen and bats are good enough right now to win the AL Central, but their starting pitching isn't even close. When Luke Hochevar is your opening day starter then the season is over before it begins. No offense to Hochevar, he is by all accounts a good guy who has some good stuff, but he is not and never will be one of the three best starting pitchers on a playoff roster.
Mike Montgomery appears to be the crown jewel of all the arms in the farm system and just so happens to be the most ready of all of them as well. He might be the ace of the staff in the future. But then again, he might not. Arms such as Jake Odorizzi and John Lamb figure to factor into the rotation as well at some point.
With Moustakas and Hosmer arriving and other young budding hitters like Wil Myers on the way-- paired with a revived Gordon and established Butler--the Royals offensive foundation is in place and will only improve. However, starting pitching will be the key and the Royals don't appear to have it.
Most point to the young arms in the farm system that I alluded to earlier. But might I divulge a different channel of thinking? The Royals will need to trade a combination of big league talent and top level prospects to acquire an established ace pitcher. The Rangers did so to get Cliff Lee. The Brewers did so to get C.C. Sabathia. The Royals will have to do so as well. (King Felix anyone?)
I believe Montgomery will be exceptional. But there's better than a chance that he's not Cole Hamels or Tim Lincecum. Very few top pitching prospects are. Acquiring a proven talent is and will be necessary for this Royals team to make it to where it ultimately wants to be.
There is much to be excited about with the arrival of Moose and the tremendous talent that Hosmer and Duffy have already displayed. So lets enjoy the ride for now, but starting next year the pressure will be on Dayton Moore to produce a quality big-league product. He will do so by using his homegrown talent, but he would be wise to use it for multiple purposes.
Thus, the future is here, at least in the infield.
The early returns from Moustakas have been positive, as he's not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also great plate discipline--drawing a walk in each of his first four games. According to Rany Jazayerli he's the first Royal to do that since, well, ever. With Moustakas hitting in the 6-hole, the Royals actually have a middle of the order that is viable. This is something that has been missing, among other things, with this franchise since the late 90s/early 2000s.
(3-Hosmer, 4-Butler, 5-Francouer, 6-Moustakas)
The average age of that group is a shade under 24. Take away Francouer, who figures to not fit into the team's long term plans, and the average age of the remaining three is 22.6. All three are under contract through 2016. That gives the Royals a minimum of five seasons to build around this core middle of the order. It is yet to be determined whether or not any are capable of hitting 30 home runs, but it is expected that Hosmer and Moustakas will.
I am not convinced that Alex Gordon will be the long term solution as the leadoff hitter, however, in 25 games he has hit .280/.361/.449 with 12 runs scored--more than adequate in that role. I still feel that he is hitting there out of necessity this season and has the type of power that you would like to see a little later in the order. But until an another option presents itself, you could do a lot worse than batting Gordon leadoff.
The arrival of Moustakas and Hosmer this season and their immediate impact signals the start of a very exciting youth movement that all of us Royals fans have been waiting for. However, it also signals the disparity, at this point, in big-league ready talent between position players and pitchers. Sure there is an abundance of pitching prowess in the minor leagues, but none of the arms, besides Duffy and possibly Mike Montgomery are close to ready. And there are tons of young arms already on the major league roster, but none, besides Duffy, are starting pitchers.
This is the most difficult part of building a winner. The Royals bullpen and bats are good enough right now to win the AL Central, but their starting pitching isn't even close. When Luke Hochevar is your opening day starter then the season is over before it begins. No offense to Hochevar, he is by all accounts a good guy who has some good stuff, but he is not and never will be one of the three best starting pitchers on a playoff roster.
Mike Montgomery appears to be the crown jewel of all the arms in the farm system and just so happens to be the most ready of all of them as well. He might be the ace of the staff in the future. But then again, he might not. Arms such as Jake Odorizzi and John Lamb figure to factor into the rotation as well at some point.
With Moustakas and Hosmer arriving and other young budding hitters like Wil Myers on the way-- paired with a revived Gordon and established Butler--the Royals offensive foundation is in place and will only improve. However, starting pitching will be the key and the Royals don't appear to have it.
Most point to the young arms in the farm system that I alluded to earlier. But might I divulge a different channel of thinking? The Royals will need to trade a combination of big league talent and top level prospects to acquire an established ace pitcher. The Rangers did so to get Cliff Lee. The Brewers did so to get C.C. Sabathia. The Royals will have to do so as well. (King Felix anyone?)
I believe Montgomery will be exceptional. But there's better than a chance that he's not Cole Hamels or Tim Lincecum. Very few top pitching prospects are. Acquiring a proven talent is and will be necessary for this Royals team to make it to where it ultimately wants to be.
There is much to be excited about with the arrival of Moose and the tremendous talent that Hosmer and Duffy have already displayed. So lets enjoy the ride for now, but starting next year the pressure will be on Dayton Moore to produce a quality big-league product. He will do so by using his homegrown talent, but he would be wise to use it for multiple purposes.
Friday, June 3, 2011
The Time for Dayton is Coming
I spent the last post singing the praises of Eric Hosmer--possibly the cream of the loaded crop of Royals prospects. Hosmer exemplifies the impressive ability that the Dayton Moore administration has shown in scouting and developing "homegrown" talent.
He undoubtedly has once piece of the General Manager puzzle down pat, however there are serious flaws in the other areas of his approach. Making trades and free agent signings both factor into what it takes to be a good general manager. No team has ever been able to win with homegrown talent alone. Because, more times than not, some of the talent doesn't end up panning out at the big league level. Thus, holes are left to be filled on the roster. It is the GM's job to identify these holes and address them in free agency and trades.
Thus far under Moore's watch the Royals have not been in a position for trades and free agency acquisitions to make much of a difference in terms of making the postseason. That is about to change. With all the talent that we know is coming and for that matter, has already come in the Royals farm system, it is important that Moore does well in these two areas. However, if recent history is any indication of future endeavors by Moore, then the results could be vastly underwhelming.
The most glaring examples of Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazarro are an unfriendly reminder of just how bad Moore has done in trades. Both trades were ridiculed when made and rightfully so, but I remained optimistic over the Alberto Callaspo trade that brought O'Sullivan. However, when all you have to show for a productive infielder in Callaspo and arguably the Royals' best player in 2010, David Dejesus is--what look to be--two ineffective starters that don't figure to be in the team's long term plans, then they weren't good moves.
I'm not suggesting that the Royals should have held onto Callaspo and Dejesus, because they obviously didn't fit into the long term plans either. But that doesn't mean you HAVE to trade them. Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli says that the Royals might have traded Dejesus as part of a salary dump in order to get rid of his $6 million salary for 2011. And if that were the case, rather than trading him, they should have declined his option and since he was a Type B player they would have picked up a supplemental first-round draft pick this year.
Based on how deep this year's draft is and how well the Moore administration is at scouting and drafting talent, I think we all would prefer that over a player who produced the worst relief appearance IN MAJOR-LEAGUE HISTORY.
The O'Sullivan and Mazzaro examples are the most recent, but the list goes on with trades such as the Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs trade that had seemingly every baseball pundit shaking their head. Nunez, by the way, leads the league in saves with 19 for the Marlins. Jacobs, last I heard, was terrorizing minor-league pitching by crushing the occasional home run and throwing in lower-lippers that can be seen from outer space.
The reason this is all relevant is to demonstrate the faults of the Dayton Moore regime in making decisions outside of scouting and drafting at a time where he will need to be at his best if the Royals are to seriously contend for a championship. Every baseball expert has the Royals pegged as the team to beat in the AL Central for the coming years due to all of the talent that is expected to arrive. However, as with anything in baseball, nothing is certain.
We know Eric Hosmer is going to produce and we know Danny Duffy looks like a quality starter, but are the bats of Hosmer and Moustakas going to be enough to offset the small sticks of Esbobar and Christian Colon up the middle? And, better yet, is Colon even the answer at second base-- at age 22, in just over 175 AB's in AA, Colon is hitting .239/.308/.318.? Also, who will play catcher and will he be able to handle such a presumably young rotation? Salvador Perez figures to be the answer there, but he doesn't figure to be with the Royals until the 2013 season unless he takes significant strides at AA Northwest Arkansas.
These are all questions that will arise and will have to be addressed and there are likely others that will pop up in the outfield as well. If the Royals are competing for a division title they will have to address these needs in free agency, but they will also have to do so through trades. Part of having a loaded farm system with prospects all over the place, is using them as trade pieces to add established and proven big-league talent. This is something we have not yet seen from Moore, because the Royals aren't competing and there is no need to trade a Mike Montgomery and Wil Myers to grab a bat at second or a frontline rotation guy like Felix Hernandez. (Completely hypothetical and it would take more than that to get King Felix)
But if the Royals are going to be as good as everyone thinks they will be then moves similar to these will have to be made. Which means Moore will have to part with his talent, not Allard Baird's. And more importantly, he'll have to make wise decisions about what certain proven players are worth in terms of minor-league prospects. His track record in swapping major-league players is abysmal from what we've seen, but it will be his ability to trade prospects for proven talent coupled with wise free-agency acquisitions that will ultimately determine the Royals future championship hopes.
I'm not suggesting that the Royals should have held onto Callaspo and Dejesus, because they obviously didn't fit into the long term plans either. But that doesn't mean you HAVE to trade them. Royals blogger Rany Jazayerli says that the Royals might have traded Dejesus as part of a salary dump in order to get rid of his $6 million salary for 2011. And if that were the case, rather than trading him, they should have declined his option and since he was a Type B player they would have picked up a supplemental first-round draft pick this year.
Based on how deep this year's draft is and how well the Moore administration is at scouting and drafting talent, I think we all would prefer that over a player who produced the worst relief appearance IN MAJOR-LEAGUE HISTORY.
The O'Sullivan and Mazzaro examples are the most recent, but the list goes on with trades such as the Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs trade that had seemingly every baseball pundit shaking their head. Nunez, by the way, leads the league in saves with 19 for the Marlins. Jacobs, last I heard, was terrorizing minor-league pitching by crushing the occasional home run and throwing in lower-lippers that can be seen from outer space.
The reason this is all relevant is to demonstrate the faults of the Dayton Moore regime in making decisions outside of scouting and drafting at a time where he will need to be at his best if the Royals are to seriously contend for a championship. Every baseball expert has the Royals pegged as the team to beat in the AL Central for the coming years due to all of the talent that is expected to arrive. However, as with anything in baseball, nothing is certain.
We know Eric Hosmer is going to produce and we know Danny Duffy looks like a quality starter, but are the bats of Hosmer and Moustakas going to be enough to offset the small sticks of Esbobar and Christian Colon up the middle? And, better yet, is Colon even the answer at second base-- at age 22, in just over 175 AB's in AA, Colon is hitting .239/.308/.318.? Also, who will play catcher and will he be able to handle such a presumably young rotation? Salvador Perez figures to be the answer there, but he doesn't figure to be with the Royals until the 2013 season unless he takes significant strides at AA Northwest Arkansas.
These are all questions that will arise and will have to be addressed and there are likely others that will pop up in the outfield as well. If the Royals are competing for a division title they will have to address these needs in free agency, but they will also have to do so through trades. Part of having a loaded farm system with prospects all over the place, is using them as trade pieces to add established and proven big-league talent. This is something we have not yet seen from Moore, because the Royals aren't competing and there is no need to trade a Mike Montgomery and Wil Myers to grab a bat at second or a frontline rotation guy like Felix Hernandez. (Completely hypothetical and it would take more than that to get King Felix)
But if the Royals are going to be as good as everyone thinks they will be then moves similar to these will have to be made. Which means Moore will have to part with his talent, not Allard Baird's. And more importantly, he'll have to make wise decisions about what certain proven players are worth in terms of minor-league prospects. His track record in swapping major-league players is abysmal from what we've seen, but it will be his ability to trade prospects for proven talent coupled with wise free-agency acquisitions that will ultimately determine the Royals future championship hopes.
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
The Wizard of Hos
A goal I have now set for myself is to reach a high enough level as a sports writer to have the privilege of being in attendance when Eric Hosmer delivers his Hall of Fame speech. Thank you for the inspiration, Eric.
Anointing Hosmer a future Hall-of-Famer in just over a hundred major league at bats might be premature, but that's how good the 21-year-old has been in his short stint with the Royals. I'm hardly the first one to have this notion concerning Hosmer. National pundit Joe Sheehan shared similar feelings on Hosmer on his podcast with Royals blogger, Rany Jazayerli. It's not just Hosmer's .291/.327/.515 line that impresses, but it's the timely hitting-- he seems so comfortable with runners in scoring position as evidenced by his 17 RBIs-- as well as the flurry of spectacular defensive plays that will surely challenge Mark Teixeira's gold glove status in the coming years.
In roughly a month I believe Hosmer has established himself as the best player on the Royals. He has immediately upgraded the defense and at the same time has become a staple in the lineup--quickly asserting himself as the clubs' number three hitter. And make no mistake Hosmer becoming the number three hitter is a big deal seeing as though the Dayton Moore Royals have had little to no success with hitters positioned in that spot. Generally you would like your best overall hitter to be in the three hole and it helps if he has some power, as Hosmer does.
Butler hit in the three spot the past couple seasons, while Jose Guillen was horrendously occupying the cleanup position, and did an admirable job in doing so. However, Butler's tendency to hit the ball on the ground coupled with his not so fleet of foot provided double plays at a league high pace. Butler also lacks elite power thus far in his career and you would like to have the kind that Hosmer will can provide in that position. To be fair to Butler he never had a leadoff guy in front of him that came close to adequately working counts or having a high OBP--something that escaped a lot of hitters under Trey Hillman. Although, it's hard to develop as a leadoff hitter when you know there's a good chance you could be hitting second, third, or even sixth depending on the day--David Dejesus anyone?
It's the general belief that the Royals brought up Hosmer before the Super Two deadline because they saw a chance to compete in a weak AL Central this season. The Royals trailed only the Indians who had and still do have the best record in the American League--but they most likely did not anticipate them to keep up their hot start. It is clear the Royals won't compete for anything this season, but bringing up Hosmer was not a mistake by any means. He was putting up video-game numbers in AAA-- actually I'm not even sure I could put up those numbers in a video game--and was obviously ready to be challenged by big league pitching.
Hosmer hasn't disappointed and has been as good as advertised, which is a rare thing for me to say as a Royals fan who is use to seeing hot-shot prospects flounder at the big league level for at least a season. The Royals are no doubt a better ball club with Hosmer on the roster and having him up for 3/4 of this season will make him all the better when they figure to compete for the division next season.
So far the Royals have been rewarded when calling up prospects from the greatest farm system ever. They have seen immediate results from not only Hosmer, but the likes of Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and most recently, Danny Duffy. Hosmer and Duffy represent the beginning of their loaded respective groups. It is expected that AAA teammate and fellow corner mate, Mike Moustakas will join Hosmer and the Royals at some point before the trading deadline. And, although Mike Montgomery has struggled this season in AAA, he is the crown jewel of the young minor league arms and is also expected to be up at some point before the season is over.
It will be a small sample of what awaits the Royals the next several years, but if they yield results anything close to what Hosmer, Crow and Duffy have already provided, then Royals baseball is about to get exciting for the first time in my life--it only took 22 years.
Anointing Hosmer a future Hall-of-Famer in just over a hundred major league at bats might be premature, but that's how good the 21-year-old has been in his short stint with the Royals. I'm hardly the first one to have this notion concerning Hosmer. National pundit Joe Sheehan shared similar feelings on Hosmer on his podcast with Royals blogger, Rany Jazayerli. It's not just Hosmer's .291/.327/.515 line that impresses, but it's the timely hitting-- he seems so comfortable with runners in scoring position as evidenced by his 17 RBIs-- as well as the flurry of spectacular defensive plays that will surely challenge Mark Teixeira's gold glove status in the coming years.
In roughly a month I believe Hosmer has established himself as the best player on the Royals. He has immediately upgraded the defense and at the same time has become a staple in the lineup--quickly asserting himself as the clubs' number three hitter. And make no mistake Hosmer becoming the number three hitter is a big deal seeing as though the Dayton Moore Royals have had little to no success with hitters positioned in that spot. Generally you would like your best overall hitter to be in the three hole and it helps if he has some power, as Hosmer does.
Butler hit in the three spot the past couple seasons, while Jose Guillen was horrendously occupying the cleanup position, and did an admirable job in doing so. However, Butler's tendency to hit the ball on the ground coupled with his not so fleet of foot provided double plays at a league high pace. Butler also lacks elite power thus far in his career and you would like to have the kind that Hosmer will can provide in that position. To be fair to Butler he never had a leadoff guy in front of him that came close to adequately working counts or having a high OBP--something that escaped a lot of hitters under Trey Hillman. Although, it's hard to develop as a leadoff hitter when you know there's a good chance you could be hitting second, third, or even sixth depending on the day--David Dejesus anyone?
It's the general belief that the Royals brought up Hosmer before the Super Two deadline because they saw a chance to compete in a weak AL Central this season. The Royals trailed only the Indians who had and still do have the best record in the American League--but they most likely did not anticipate them to keep up their hot start. It is clear the Royals won't compete for anything this season, but bringing up Hosmer was not a mistake by any means. He was putting up video-game numbers in AAA-- actually I'm not even sure I could put up those numbers in a video game--and was obviously ready to be challenged by big league pitching.
Hosmer hasn't disappointed and has been as good as advertised, which is a rare thing for me to say as a Royals fan who is use to seeing hot-shot prospects flounder at the big league level for at least a season. The Royals are no doubt a better ball club with Hosmer on the roster and having him up for 3/4 of this season will make him all the better when they figure to compete for the division next season.
So far the Royals have been rewarded when calling up prospects from the greatest farm system ever. They have seen immediate results from not only Hosmer, but the likes of Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and most recently, Danny Duffy. Hosmer and Duffy represent the beginning of their loaded respective groups. It is expected that AAA teammate and fellow corner mate, Mike Moustakas will join Hosmer and the Royals at some point before the trading deadline. And, although Mike Montgomery has struggled this season in AAA, he is the crown jewel of the young minor league arms and is also expected to be up at some point before the season is over.
It will be a small sample of what awaits the Royals the next several years, but if they yield results anything close to what Hosmer, Crow and Duffy have already provided, then Royals baseball is about to get exciting for the first time in my life--it only took 22 years.
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