The Kansas City Royals acquired a much-needed asset in frontline starting pitcher Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday. It's a boon to the Royals' chances to repeat at American League champions and win their first World Series since 1985.
However, in the modern landscape of Major League Baseball, the more prudent question in deals such as these seems to be, who did you give up? In this particular deal, the Royals gave up a trio of left-handed pitchers in 24-year old John Lamb, 22-year old Brandon Finnegan and 22-year old Cody Reed. Lamb, as of now, is the key piece to the deal as he's posted dazzling numbers in AAA in what has been a rejuvenating year for him as a prospect after a UCL tear and the subsequent Tommy John surgery that followed railroaded his status as a top-flight prospect. He's the most ready of the three to slot into a big-league rotation. Finnegan will forever go down in Royals lore for his incredible postseason performance, most notably his 2 1/3 innings of relief in the Wild Card game against the A's. However, it's murky whether or not he projects as a valuable starting pitcher, as he has yet to be used as anything other than a reliever in the pros. Reed is considered the player with the most upside here. He was promoted to AA-Northwest Arkansas after a stellar couple months in High-A Wilmington. Though, it's well documented that Wilmington is a pitcher's haven and many Royals prospects — some good, some bad — have had ogles of success there.
It's a decent haul for the Reds and it's my opinion that both teams make out well here.
I find myself amazed nowadays though how so much of the conversation surrounding these deals is rife with trepidation from analysts and fans about giving up "too much" in the way of prospects. As is the case in many walks of life, which sports is just as proved to, there's been an overcorrection in the way we value prospects.
As recent as fifteen years ago it was commonplace for front offices to make trades for established players without regard for the prospects in which it was giving up. Just shipping away loads of potentially valuable future pieces for a rental. Sabermetricians and forward thinking baseball folks rightfully criticized these moves at the time, but they were mostly on an island, as very few fans placed high value on their team's farm system. There's more data than ever now and front offices are much smarter in the way they operate, thus the mainstream media is much smarter in the way they evaluate and in turn the fans are much more educated in the way they react.
This is why I was inundated by friends and overwhelmed while perusing social media at the amount of Royals fans who were terrified they gave away too much for Cueto. One friend listed the possibility that Lamb, Finnegan and Reed could "all be pretty good pitchers." The Reds wouldn't have made the trade if they didn't think that was a possibility as well.
Seemingly every trade nowadays has to be won or lost, which is why the knee-jerk reaction from fans seems to accompany every trade involving prospects. Prospects have become such a delicacy that people often forget how frequently they flop. You can't build a team solely off of prospects, because prospects, especially pitching prospects, will break your heart. Break. Your. Heart. The Royals have as much experience as any in this department. So their seeming departure from coveting them as potential building blocks to stockpiling and using them as trade pieces to acquire top-level talent to add to a championship-caliber team has been refreshing.
The bottom line is this: The Royals acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball and did so without surrendering any of their perceived top three prospects. They addressed what is, really, their only weakness to this point of the season in the starting rotation. They did not need Cueto to make the playoffs, or really even to win the AL Central, which they now lead by eight games (largest lead since 1980). But they did need him to bolster their chances to win a championship.
Anyone regretting the "The Trade" back in 2013 that netted James Shields and Wade Davis — two key pieces on a team that brought KC its first playoff appearance since 1985 and within one game (one base) of a World Series title? And if Cueto helps pitch the Royals to a title this year no one will or should care what becomes of Lamb, Finnegan and Reed.
Flags fly forever. And Dayton Moore struck while the iron was piping hot. For that, he should be lauded.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Friday, March 27, 2015
Sweet 16 Observations
The first four games of the Sweet 16 got underway Thursday night. All the higher seeds advanced, but there was certainly some drama involved. It sets up two very desirable Elite Eight match ups Saturday night. But first, lets see how we arrived there.
Notre Dame (3) vs. Wichita State (7): Notre Dame set the tone in the opening five minutes. The Irish ran their offense to near perfection and jumped out to a double-digit lead against the Shockers. Wichita State, to the surprise of no one, did not go away and cut the Notre Dame lead to 33-30 at halftime. The Shockers then grabbed the lead at 38-37 five minutes into the second half. Then, boom. Notre Dame put on an offensive display that was a pleasure to witness. They got buckets in every which way; splashing open threes, layups off backdoor cuts, alley-oops, seriously, whatever way they wanted it to a clip of 75 percent in the second half. They dismantled a Wichita State defense that ranks 16th in KenPom's AdjD (adjusted defensive efficiency) on their way to a 20-point lead, ultimately winning 81-70. Notre Dame reminds me so much of the 2012 Missouri team — the similarities are everywhere. They aren't big, they only go seven deep and they often play a four-guard lineup that asks 6-foot-5 senior guard Kim English, err Pat Connaughton, to guard the four. Yet, they play beautiful, team-oriented offensive basketball that is so difficult to slow down. Their passing and movement off the ball creates so many good looks and they're all good shooters who knock down the majority of those open looks. Mizzou ranked No. 1 in AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) in 2012, slightly better than Notre Dame, who sits at No. 3 in the country, but the teams are mirror images of each other. The difference is Notre Dame survived its first-round scare vs. 14-seed Northeastern. Mizzou, well, moving right along...This is the only team in the Midwest Region, and maybe the country, who has a shot to take down Kentucky. More on that later.
Wisconsin (1) vs. North Carolina (4): Outside of Kentucky, North Carolina is as talented as any other team in the country. Consistency has always been the issue with this squad. I don't know exactly why, but for some reason the pieces just never seemed to properly fit. On Thursday, however, the Tar Heels played splendid for 30-plus minutes and had Wisconsin on the ropes for much of the contest, but the game flipped just under the seven-minute mark. North Carolina led 60-56, then, in a somewhat shocking development, the pace picked up to the Tar Heels' favor, yet it was Wisconsin who was ultimately the beneficiary. The Badgers sprung a quick 9-0 run in a minute-thirty to take a five-point lead and never relinquished it en route to a 79-72 win and sneaky cover (-6.5!). Wisconsin has maybe my favorite non-Kentucky player in the tournament in 6-foot-9 junior Sam Dekker. The dude became a legend in the offseason when he balled out at LeBron's camp. And though he showed flashes of brilliance this season, he rarely put together complete games. He put together a complete game in this one, scoring a season-high 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go along with 10 boards. He got to the rim at will against a really good defender in Carolina's JP Tokoto. I picked Arizona to get to the Final Four, but if Dekker plays like he did tonight, Wisconsin is headed there for the second year in a row.
Kentucky (1) vs. West Virginia (5): There's really not much to say about this game other than, "are you happy West Virginia?" You just fed a well-rested giant two Red Bulls with your smack talk before the game. You can't beat Kentucky unless you believe you can, obviously. But don't go on Twitter and straight up predict you're going to win the game. This Wildcats team is historically awesome and it's the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16, they were going to be ready to play. But there's no need to add fuel to the fire, because then, well, then you get beat 79-38 and leave thinking it could have been worse. Daxter Miles Jr., who fired the pre-game shots, was scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting in 19 minutes. Bro, come on. When Kentucky is laser-focused and noticeably playing with a chip on their shoulder, there is not a team in the country capable of beating them. Honestly, there's not a team in the country capable of challenging them. How you beat Kentucky is by staying quiet beforehand, knock down shots on offense (preferably threes) and make them knock down threes against you. If you do that and get the game under five minutes with a lead or within striking distance, anything can happen. The pressure is all on them and they are human, I think. There's a handful of teams who played Kentucky well. The two who nearly had them beat were Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who both fell in overtime — two for A&M. Those were the first two games of the SEC slate and the Wildcats were feeling themselves after cake-walking through the non-conference slate. They got surprised by both opponents and barely survived against a pair of mediocre teams. That's essentially the recipe: sneak up on them, hit lots of outside shots, force them to take lots of outside shots and pray they cave under the weight of insane expectations in the closing minutes. Good luck (Taken voice).
Arizona (2) vs. Xavier (6): Xavier's birthright is the Sweet 16. Seriously, these guys are always in the freaking Sweet 16. Usually it's due to a big upset in the other first-round game opposite of them. But, credit to them, the Musketeers came out and gave an Arizona team, who had steamrolled seemingly everyone the past month, everything it wanted and then some. I'm not exactly sure how the Wildcats managed to win this one actually. Xavier's 1-3-1 zone perplexed Arizona throughout the night and stymied its offensive attack up until the final four minutes of the game basically. Xavier executed its game plan to perfection and glorious 6-foot-10 big fella Matt Stainbrook, Rec-Specs and all, controlled the paint for the better part of the contest against the best rim-protecting team outside of Kentucky. Xavier's outside shooting is what was ultimately its undoing, as the Musketeers went 3 of 17 from the perimeter. Had they managed to knock down a few more shots along the way as Chris Mack was x'ing and o'ing the crap out of his former mentor Sean Miller's boys, they would've had a much more threatening lead in the closing minutes. As it were, the lead never swelled past four points under 10 minutes and TJ McConnell woke up and took over the game for Arizona. The Wildcats really didn't play all that well and still managed to get through to the Elite Eight. It's what this tournament is all about: survive and advance. Eventually though, you run into a team where you can't play a below-average game and still make it to the next round. Saturday against Wisconsin is when that begins. I can't wait.
Friday Night at the Sweet 16
Gonzaga (2) vs. UCLA (11): Gonzaga flexed its muscle on the interior throughout the night. UCLA's lone hope in this ball game was Bryce Alford having another preposterously good shooting night from the perimeter — he was 3 of 11 from the field and 2 of 6 from three. Prezemik Karnowski, the Zags' 6-11 big man from Poland had 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting and grabbed four offensive rebounds to spearhead a dominant effort in that category. In its 74-62 victory, the only precarious position Gonzaga faced was the opening minutes of the second half when UCLA cut its lead to 35-34. The Zags called timeout and then went on a 12-0 run the next five minutes. UCLA was never again within single digits. The Bruins, as they did last year, were the beneficiary of an extremely fortuitous opening-weekend draw and a bit of good luck. After winning on maybe the whackiest play ever — a goaltend on an desperation 3-ponter — in the opening round against SMU, they faced 14-seed UAB, who upset Iowa State, to get to the Sweet 16. To its credit, UCLA took advantage, but the Bruins ran into a legitimate championship contender in Gonzaga and this game felt like a formality.
Louisville (4) vs. NC State (8): This was the Montrezl Harrel and Terry Rozier show. Louisville's dynamic inside-out duo flexed their collective NBA-level brass and took over this contest in the second half. Surprisingly, it was Anton Gill who sparked the Cards' decisive run. Louisville trailed 54-53 with six minutes left and Gill made a jumper and a three on back-to-back possessions to give the Cards a lead they would not relinquish. Rozier scored eight of his 17 points in the closing four minutes and Harrell had a game-high 24 points. NC State once again played a game amid a tournament run that had you wondering how in the hell they lost 13 games in the regular season. No matter how routinely mediocre the Wolfpack are November-February under Mark Gottfried, it appears they'll always have March, which I imagine most programs would take.
Duke (1) vs. Utah (5): Utah had a fantastic game plan and despite a few questionable foul calls, including one that forced Delon Wright to sit for a crucial juncture, it played Duke about as well as could be hoped for. Justise Winslow, who is skyrocketing up draft boards this tournament, took over the game in the second half, particularly the middle portion, which allowed Duke to extend its lead to double digits. Utah made a decent late push, but ultimately, in the most amazing or heartbreaking (depending on which side you had) Vegas finish ever, the Blue Devils covered a -5.5 spread after the officials went back to review a foul call after time had expired (it was totally a foul). Players were walking off the court and set to change hands and bettors who had the favorite likely exploded as the refs determined a foul had occurred with a second left. Tyus Jones stepped to the line and hit one of two free throws and those who took the points spontaneously combusted, sources say.
Oklahoma (3) vs. Michigan State (7): Farewell, Big 12. The consensus best conference in the country did not have a single team advance to the Elite Eight and went just 5-7 despite having seven teams in the tourney. The Big 12 love fest permeated throughout the national media all season, which was unfounded given their success in the non-conference and their wildly entertaining conference games. However, I was never much of a believer in the league. Don't get me wrong, I thought they had the most depth, but I surmised that there were no great or even really good teams in the league. My reasoning was simply rooted in the fact that Kansas, who had its biggest combination of talent deficiency and experience that I can remember under Bill Self, navigated through the league for an outright title. Iowa State, who I felt was the second-best team in the conference, is incredibly adept offensively but equally inept defensively, which isn't a great recipe come tourney time. While many viewers were transfixed by the ultra-competitive nature of the games, touting league strength, I felt like it was simply a byproduct of a lot of parity with a league bereft of any elite teams. Back in mid-February when I had the opportunity to have lunch with Reid Forgrave, a fantastic college basketball writer for Fox Sports who was of the many touting the Big 12 as the unquestionable top conference, I stated my claim for the ACC being better and posed to him this question: When the bracket is released in March, which Big 12 team do you have going to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight? Reid paused, perhaps having never considered this far-away scenario, before agreeing that there wasn't a Final Four team in the conference. Anyway, I could spend at least 1,000 more words on this topic and the Big 12's overrated hoops history in general given Mizzou's recent affiliation, but alas.
All said, Oklahoma was much better than maybe I gave them credit for. They didn't win the regular-season title or tourney title, but I think they might have been the best team in the league. I expected Michigan State, who I picked to come out of the East Region, to roll by the Sooners. For much of this game, it felt like Oklahoma would do that very thing to Sparty. Then, Travis Trice absolutely took over. He scored a game-high 24 points and made clutch play after clutch play, including a pair of game-sealing free throws, to advance Tom Izzo and MSU to yet another Elite Eight. Basically it boils down to this, Lon Kruger, and most other college basketball coaches who dare step to Sparty in March: TOM IZZO IS IN AND YOU'RE FUCKING OUT.
Notre Dame (3) vs. Wichita State (7): Notre Dame set the tone in the opening five minutes. The Irish ran their offense to near perfection and jumped out to a double-digit lead against the Shockers. Wichita State, to the surprise of no one, did not go away and cut the Notre Dame lead to 33-30 at halftime. The Shockers then grabbed the lead at 38-37 five minutes into the second half. Then, boom. Notre Dame put on an offensive display that was a pleasure to witness. They got buckets in every which way; splashing open threes, layups off backdoor cuts, alley-oops, seriously, whatever way they wanted it to a clip of 75 percent in the second half. They dismantled a Wichita State defense that ranks 16th in KenPom's AdjD (adjusted defensive efficiency) on their way to a 20-point lead, ultimately winning 81-70. Notre Dame reminds me so much of the 2012 Missouri team — the similarities are everywhere. They aren't big, they only go seven deep and they often play a four-guard lineup that asks 6-foot-5 senior guard Kim English, err Pat Connaughton, to guard the four. Yet, they play beautiful, team-oriented offensive basketball that is so difficult to slow down. Their passing and movement off the ball creates so many good looks and they're all good shooters who knock down the majority of those open looks. Mizzou ranked No. 1 in AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) in 2012, slightly better than Notre Dame, who sits at No. 3 in the country, but the teams are mirror images of each other. The difference is Notre Dame survived its first-round scare vs. 14-seed Northeastern. Mizzou, well, moving right along...This is the only team in the Midwest Region, and maybe the country, who has a shot to take down Kentucky. More on that later.
Wisconsin (1) vs. North Carolina (4): Outside of Kentucky, North Carolina is as talented as any other team in the country. Consistency has always been the issue with this squad. I don't know exactly why, but for some reason the pieces just never seemed to properly fit. On Thursday, however, the Tar Heels played splendid for 30-plus minutes and had Wisconsin on the ropes for much of the contest, but the game flipped just under the seven-minute mark. North Carolina led 60-56, then, in a somewhat shocking development, the pace picked up to the Tar Heels' favor, yet it was Wisconsin who was ultimately the beneficiary. The Badgers sprung a quick 9-0 run in a minute-thirty to take a five-point lead and never relinquished it en route to a 79-72 win and sneaky cover (-6.5!). Wisconsin has maybe my favorite non-Kentucky player in the tournament in 6-foot-9 junior Sam Dekker. The dude became a legend in the offseason when he balled out at LeBron's camp. And though he showed flashes of brilliance this season, he rarely put together complete games. He put together a complete game in this one, scoring a season-high 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go along with 10 boards. He got to the rim at will against a really good defender in Carolina's JP Tokoto. I picked Arizona to get to the Final Four, but if Dekker plays like he did tonight, Wisconsin is headed there for the second year in a row.
Kentucky (1) vs. West Virginia (5): There's really not much to say about this game other than, "are you happy West Virginia?" You just fed a well-rested giant two Red Bulls with your smack talk before the game. You can't beat Kentucky unless you believe you can, obviously. But don't go on Twitter and straight up predict you're going to win the game. This Wildcats team is historically awesome and it's the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16, they were going to be ready to play. But there's no need to add fuel to the fire, because then, well, then you get beat 79-38 and leave thinking it could have been worse. Daxter Miles Jr., who fired the pre-game shots, was scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting in 19 minutes. Bro, come on. When Kentucky is laser-focused and noticeably playing with a chip on their shoulder, there is not a team in the country capable of beating them. Honestly, there's not a team in the country capable of challenging them. How you beat Kentucky is by staying quiet beforehand, knock down shots on offense (preferably threes) and make them knock down threes against you. If you do that and get the game under five minutes with a lead or within striking distance, anything can happen. The pressure is all on them and they are human, I think. There's a handful of teams who played Kentucky well. The two who nearly had them beat were Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who both fell in overtime — two for A&M. Those were the first two games of the SEC slate and the Wildcats were feeling themselves after cake-walking through the non-conference slate. They got surprised by both opponents and barely survived against a pair of mediocre teams. That's essentially the recipe: sneak up on them, hit lots of outside shots, force them to take lots of outside shots and pray they cave under the weight of insane expectations in the closing minutes. Good luck (Taken voice).
Arizona (2) vs. Xavier (6): Xavier's birthright is the Sweet 16. Seriously, these guys are always in the freaking Sweet 16. Usually it's due to a big upset in the other first-round game opposite of them. But, credit to them, the Musketeers came out and gave an Arizona team, who had steamrolled seemingly everyone the past month, everything it wanted and then some. I'm not exactly sure how the Wildcats managed to win this one actually. Xavier's 1-3-1 zone perplexed Arizona throughout the night and stymied its offensive attack up until the final four minutes of the game basically. Xavier executed its game plan to perfection and glorious 6-foot-10 big fella Matt Stainbrook, Rec-Specs and all, controlled the paint for the better part of the contest against the best rim-protecting team outside of Kentucky. Xavier's outside shooting is what was ultimately its undoing, as the Musketeers went 3 of 17 from the perimeter. Had they managed to knock down a few more shots along the way as Chris Mack was x'ing and o'ing the crap out of his former mentor Sean Miller's boys, they would've had a much more threatening lead in the closing minutes. As it were, the lead never swelled past four points under 10 minutes and TJ McConnell woke up and took over the game for Arizona. The Wildcats really didn't play all that well and still managed to get through to the Elite Eight. It's what this tournament is all about: survive and advance. Eventually though, you run into a team where you can't play a below-average game and still make it to the next round. Saturday against Wisconsin is when that begins. I can't wait.
Friday Night at the Sweet 16
Gonzaga (2) vs. UCLA (11): Gonzaga flexed its muscle on the interior throughout the night. UCLA's lone hope in this ball game was Bryce Alford having another preposterously good shooting night from the perimeter — he was 3 of 11 from the field and 2 of 6 from three. Prezemik Karnowski, the Zags' 6-11 big man from Poland had 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting and grabbed four offensive rebounds to spearhead a dominant effort in that category. In its 74-62 victory, the only precarious position Gonzaga faced was the opening minutes of the second half when UCLA cut its lead to 35-34. The Zags called timeout and then went on a 12-0 run the next five minutes. UCLA was never again within single digits. The Bruins, as they did last year, were the beneficiary of an extremely fortuitous opening-weekend draw and a bit of good luck. After winning on maybe the whackiest play ever — a goaltend on an desperation 3-ponter — in the opening round against SMU, they faced 14-seed UAB, who upset Iowa State, to get to the Sweet 16. To its credit, UCLA took advantage, but the Bruins ran into a legitimate championship contender in Gonzaga and this game felt like a formality.
Louisville (4) vs. NC State (8): This was the Montrezl Harrel and Terry Rozier show. Louisville's dynamic inside-out duo flexed their collective NBA-level brass and took over this contest in the second half. Surprisingly, it was Anton Gill who sparked the Cards' decisive run. Louisville trailed 54-53 with six minutes left and Gill made a jumper and a three on back-to-back possessions to give the Cards a lead they would not relinquish. Rozier scored eight of his 17 points in the closing four minutes and Harrell had a game-high 24 points. NC State once again played a game amid a tournament run that had you wondering how in the hell they lost 13 games in the regular season. No matter how routinely mediocre the Wolfpack are November-February under Mark Gottfried, it appears they'll always have March, which I imagine most programs would take.
Duke (1) vs. Utah (5): Utah had a fantastic game plan and despite a few questionable foul calls, including one that forced Delon Wright to sit for a crucial juncture, it played Duke about as well as could be hoped for. Justise Winslow, who is skyrocketing up draft boards this tournament, took over the game in the second half, particularly the middle portion, which allowed Duke to extend its lead to double digits. Utah made a decent late push, but ultimately, in the most amazing or heartbreaking (depending on which side you had) Vegas finish ever, the Blue Devils covered a -5.5 spread after the officials went back to review a foul call after time had expired (it was totally a foul). Players were walking off the court and set to change hands and bettors who had the favorite likely exploded as the refs determined a foul had occurred with a second left. Tyus Jones stepped to the line and hit one of two free throws and those who took the points spontaneously combusted, sources say.
Oklahoma (3) vs. Michigan State (7): Farewell, Big 12. The consensus best conference in the country did not have a single team advance to the Elite Eight and went just 5-7 despite having seven teams in the tourney. The Big 12 love fest permeated throughout the national media all season, which was unfounded given their success in the non-conference and their wildly entertaining conference games. However, I was never much of a believer in the league. Don't get me wrong, I thought they had the most depth, but I surmised that there were no great or even really good teams in the league. My reasoning was simply rooted in the fact that Kansas, who had its biggest combination of talent deficiency and experience that I can remember under Bill Self, navigated through the league for an outright title. Iowa State, who I felt was the second-best team in the conference, is incredibly adept offensively but equally inept defensively, which isn't a great recipe come tourney time. While many viewers were transfixed by the ultra-competitive nature of the games, touting league strength, I felt like it was simply a byproduct of a lot of parity with a league bereft of any elite teams. Back in mid-February when I had the opportunity to have lunch with Reid Forgrave, a fantastic college basketball writer for Fox Sports who was of the many touting the Big 12 as the unquestionable top conference, I stated my claim for the ACC being better and posed to him this question: When the bracket is released in March, which Big 12 team do you have going to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight? Reid paused, perhaps having never considered this far-away scenario, before agreeing that there wasn't a Final Four team in the conference. Anyway, I could spend at least 1,000 more words on this topic and the Big 12's overrated hoops history in general given Mizzou's recent affiliation, but alas.
All said, Oklahoma was much better than maybe I gave them credit for. They didn't win the regular-season title or tourney title, but I think they might have been the best team in the league. I expected Michigan State, who I picked to come out of the East Region, to roll by the Sooners. For much of this game, it felt like Oklahoma would do that very thing to Sparty. Then, Travis Trice absolutely took over. He scored a game-high 24 points and made clutch play after clutch play, including a pair of game-sealing free throws, to advance Tom Izzo and MSU to yet another Elite Eight. Basically it boils down to this, Lon Kruger, and most other college basketball coaches who dare step to Sparty in March: TOM IZZO IS IN AND YOU'RE FUCKING OUT.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)