Despite what the title of this post may suggest, this is not the one millionth mocking of Kansas City Royals General Manager Dayton Moore's favorite idiom amid nearly a decade long stretch of futility.
Rather, it stems from a fundamental difference in thinking between two different groups in modern-day baseball. You have the advanced analytics group, which ranges from uber-Sabermetric types to the more casual baseball fan who understands the value of these statistics. I fall in this group and I'm somewhere in between those two endpoints. Then you have the other group. The group that is inherently against this Sabermetric movement and believes statistics like RBI, saves, ERA and batting average were around from the sport's conception, thus they are the holy grail and shall not be minimized!
So when the Royals finish a three-game series in ugly fashion the way they did Sunday against the Twins, there's quite the divide between those two sides. Although, when it comes to Royals fandom, sometimes the first group folks are just as irrational after said losses because of a preseason belief the Royals have a deeply flawed roster not capable of making the postseason.
I don't necessarily begrudge these types of fans, because it's a large part of what makes baseball great. Passion. Living and dying with each game.
I used to be one of these fans, and believe me, I still get enraged while watching the Royals amid a bad stretch. I cursed plenty when they were swept by the lowly Twins to fall to 4-7. But at the end of the series, I also realize that one game, or one series for that matter — despite what baseball traditionalists will tell you — does not have much of a measurable impact on a season.
So Sunday after the game I simply pointed out on Twitter that while the series was frustrating and the Royals played abhorrent baseball, they still have 151 games left. That's a lot of games, obviously. It's a lot of opportunities to suck and also a lot of opportunities to be awesome. Which is why it usually evens itself out by the end of the season.
So the only thing I'm mildly concerned about with the Royals at this point is the offense. Last season the Royals scored 648 runs while allowing an American-League best 601 runs. They won 86 games with that +47 run differential and missed the playoffs by six games.
I predicted the Royals to win 90 games this season based on this year's roster. In order to do that, I think the Royals need to score 700 runs while allowing 625 runs. That would give them a +75 run differential and I've expected a standard deviation, or chance for error due to good or bad luck in one-run games, of +/- 4 games. Meaning, if things break completely right — ala the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, the Royals would have a chance to win 94 games. If they broke terribly wrong, which is sadly more likely, they could have a far better season than they did in 2013, but still finish with the same number of wins (86).
So, all this is to say: the weekend sweep to the Twins is merely a blip on the radar. It's something for local sports radio shows to drum up and boost the ratings by discussing if this team is already a disappointment and what's wrong with players like Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler. Both of which are worrisome at this point — but it all comes back to the main point: It's been 11 games in a 162-games season. That's less than 7 percent of the season. Is getting swept by the Twins good? No, but the Royals play the Twins 16 more times. If they go 12-4 against them in those games, they'll have gone 12-7 against them for the season. As a Royals fan, if you were told that at the beginning of the season, would you take that? Absolutely. So a three-game sweep in early April is somewhat irrelevant from that standpoint. It doesn't matter when and how those seven losses occur as much as it doesn't matter when or how those 12 wins occur. All that matters is their occurrence.
Ultimately, if the Royals win 90 games this season, it will be a great year. That doesn't guarantee they make the playoffs, which would be disappointing, but it would still be a great year.
But if the Royals win 90 games, that means they'll lose 72 games. 72 games. So that means as a fan you'll think it's the end of the world 72 times over the course of the next five months. So you can brace yourself for that 65 more times, or you can understand the end game and keep a few more hairs on your head and years on your life.
I choose the latter.
