And so am I.
I made a promise to myself when I was about 10 years old. I was engulfed in full-fledged Mizzou fandom and, honestly, that meant a lot of heartbreak. Hoping for the football team to make a bowl game and only lose by less than 30 to Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado (yes, Colorado used to be really good) I told myself that if this program ever started getting good, if we ever started to compete for conference titles and January bowl games or even, gasp, a national title, I would be there in person.
And if I failed to keep this promise, somehow 10-year old me would time travel to 20-something me and kick me in the balls repeatedly while screaming, "what the fuck is the matter with you!? We waited so long, so motherfucking long! I don't care what bills you have and how low your income is, fuck I don't even know what income is, just get your ass to that game."
So, hundreds of dollars later I find myself a few days from a weekend I don't think I'll soon forget. The Missouri Tigers are one game away from completely the most improbable and special season in the programs's history. They'll face Auburn, who is also having a ridiculous season, in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta with an outside shot at a berth in the national title game on the line.
I didn't see this coming. Mizzou entered the SEC puffing its chest and talking about how we would do just fine in our new home away from the Big 12. I was one of those people. I understood how the southern schools perceived our program. A gimmicky, soft, slow, middling midwestern program that tried to disguise all that with some fancy uniforms. Hell, a lot of the southern Big 12 fans felt that way. But I knew, the program was much more than that. I had watched it grow from my latter years in high school to my early years in college that saw quarterbacks Brad Smith and Chase Daniel and receivers Jeremy Maclin and Danario Alexander and NFL defenders Ziggy Hood, Sean Weatherspoon, William Moore. Eight straight seasons of eight or more wins. Improved recruiting. NFL talent all over. This was a different Mizzou program. It was deep, talented and was going to take the unsuspecting and egotyiscal SEC by storm.
Then injuries happened. Georgia at home happened. Gary Pinkel/James Franklin beef happened. Some insanely athletic and spectacular plays by Sheldon Richardson were sprinkled in. And boom, 5-7 happened. Mizzou missed a bowl game for the first time in nine years. And it had to come in our first year in the big bad SEC.
The entire fall and next eight months served as comedy hour for the rest of the conference and most of the national media talk. It sucked and it sucked mostly because I knew it wasn't true. Most fans and everyone inside the Mizzou football program knew it wasn't true. Fortunately, the latter took it far, far more personally than the rest of us.
After the 5-0 start, which included a thrashing of Vanderbilt on the road to open SEC play, Mizzou headed to Athens, Georgia to take on the Bulldogs and had looked mighty impressive. I had booked tickets before the season because I thought it would be a nice opportunity to visit a new college football venue and see my cousin who lives in nearby Atlanta. Plus, alcohol, college game day and stuff. I had no real belief I would be attending a game with my team undefeated and having a real shot to pull the shocker on the road.
And before the game, a fan I chatted with had a friend who was well-connected inside the Mizzou program in some capacity. And although you take these "inside stories" with a grain of salt, I found it interesting to here an hour before kickoff that the Mizzou players weren't talking about trying to spring an upset on the road, but rather, they were talking about trying to win a national championship. I, admittedly, laughed at that notion. I mean look, going 5-0 was nice and all and they had looked good doing it, but a national championship run? No shot.
Then, Mizzou went in and handled Georgia in the first half in a way I didn't think I would ever see the Tigers do. They led 28-10 at halftime, and it felt like it could have been by more. Of course, Georgia came back, but Mizzou won going away, 41-26. Suddenly, the "inside info" before the game had a little more substance to it.
Maybe this team was for real? Five wins and one heartbreaking slip up that we won't talk about later, Mizzou is 11-1 and has a great shot to win the SEC. And although they need help — an Ohio State or Florida State loss — they are very much in the national title discussion at No. 5 in the BCS Standings.
I was at the Texas A&M game. When Henry Josey — a guy who suffered one of the worst knee injuries you will ever see — broke lose past the Aggies defensive front into the open field on his way to a 58-yard game-winning touchdown run with the capacity crowd at Memorial Stadium exploding in celebration I couldn't help but basque in the moment. Every fucking second that occurred in those final three minutes I thoroughly enjoyed and took in with pure elation next to my older brother. There have been some great moments in the past six or seven years in my Mizzou fandom, but that one took the cake. It felt like the icing on said cake. It was vindicating to watch my school, my team steal the spotlight from the traditional powers of the SEC East if only for just that night, in a profound sort of way. Announcing our presence with authority.
When I was 10 years old I couldn't imagine anything topping that moment last Saturday. Now, at the age of 24, with Mizzou playing for and SEC Title. I fully expect that moment to be topped exactly one week later. And if it doesn't. If Mizzou is defeated by Auburn and shutout out of a BCS game or a chance at a national title, you bet your ass I will be upset. Inconsolable? Probably. But that's a credit to Gary Pinkel and his staff and what they've built at the University of Missouri in the last 13 years — beginning exactly one year after I wished of better times at the age of 10.
The bar has been set high. And right now, right this minute, Mizzou is among the country's elite programs. And I could not be more proud.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Mizzou making moves
This past Saturday I made the long trek from Iowa to Athens, Ga. to watch No. 25 Missouri take on the seventh-ranked Georgia Bulldogs.
I had made the arrangements for the trip well before the season began. And heading into the season I was quite certain I had booked a weekend in mid-October that would be tons of fun with friends and family that would include plenty of southern eye candy, but would bring some anguish in terms of the actual football game. Then Mizzou began the season 5-0 and destroyed every opponent in their path, including Indiana and Vanderbilt on the road — both in which they opened up as Vegas underdogs.
Then the unthinkable happened for this life-long Mizzou fan. The Tigers went into Athens and their beautiful while altogether terrifying Sanford Stadium and thoroughly outplayed the Dawgs, winning 41-26 going away. It vaulted Mizzou (6-0, 2-0) to No. 14 in the AP poll, its highest ranking since 2010. And this little fantastic stat emerged out of the weekend: Two teams have beaten every opponent by at least 15 points — Oregon and Mizzou. Wild. Of course, in typical Mizzou fashion, QB James Franklin injured his shoulder on a questionable hit as he was getting rid of the ball and is expected to miss three to five weeks.
Look, if you follow this program as closely as I do you knew the talent was there. I was quite sure the Tigers were going to take the SEC by storm in their first season last year and was at the conference debut against Georgia in which they took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter before Jarvis Jones and the Georgia defense happened. Worse than the misleading 41-20 final score was the damage done to quarterback James Franklin and the offensive line late in that game. Jarvis Jones ruined Franklin on a couple hits in the fourth quarter and three starters up front went down with injuries and while none of us knew at the time, that was the end of the season. Franklin payed in just five more games and didn't look good in those games and backup freshman Corbin Berkstresser was a disaster behind a makeshift offensive line. It was a shame, really, because there was so much talent at the wide receiver position.
This season, all that talent remains for the most part, and Henry Josey returned from his devastating knee injury to complement a well above-average threesome in the backfield with senior Marcus Murphy and sophomore Russel Hansbrough. Dorial Green-Beckham is a flat out stud and is living up to his No. 1 recruit in the nation billing and he's arguably been the third best receiver on the team behind senior LaDamian Washington, who has seven touchdowns and senior Marcus Lucas. Oh, and the offensive line is healthy. Stud sophomore lineman Evan Boehm has shifted to center and snaps are no longer hitting the feet or going over the head of the QB like they were seemingly once every series last year.
I knew the offense would be very good this year. There was too much talent for it not to be. The defense, however, was my main concern and I thought it would be the difference between this team winning seven games and say, nine.
The defense isn't Alabama, or even this week's opponent Florida, but as I was telling my Dad over the phone and pretty much any Mizzou fan in Athens that would listen, it's a big-play defense.
They get tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks — ask Aaron Murray — thanks to a group of stellar defensive ends led by senior Michael Sam, who has six sacks and scored on a 21-yard fumble recovery to put Mizzou up 28-10 against Georgia. That constant duress they put on the QB has led to the wealth of turnovers the defense has created this season. The defense has 13 interceptions and two fumble recoveries and is +9 as a team.
It all equates to a 6-0 start. Being a Mizzou fan and knowing better, my first instinct is to wonder when it will all come to a screeching halt. But I've thought better of it after that Georgia trip. That game, no matter the injury troubles the Dawgs had at some key skill positions, was a statement by Mizzou. I don't know how much longer they can remain unbeaten, but the Tigers have made the fall a lot of fun so far.
No matter what happens in the next two games, which will no doubt determine whether this squad is capable of playing in the SEC Championship game or just a good team who will play in an above-average bowl game, I'm going to enjoy the ride.
The Tigers are legitimately a good football team, who will undergo a wild next three weeks with three straight home games against Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. Go 3-0 in that stretch and they're a lock for the SEC East title. Go 2-1, it's intriguing still. Go 1-2, it's what everyone outside of Columbia, Mo. is expecting, and you're still 7-2. Go 0-3, well, that will suck.
But it all starts on Saturday at 11:20 a.m. Florida comes in with its putrid offense and formidable defense. Mizzou is starting a backup, first-year freshman quarterback in Maty Mauk to try and lead its high-powered offense, which has put up 45 points a game. Mauk is the all-time high school leader in passing yards and has the peripherals that are eerily similar to Mizzou legend Chase Daniel. Still, he's a complete unknown coming into this contest and it amps up the drama of the game even more.
The Tigers are a 3-point underdog, which continues the trend of the last two weeks. Only this time they are at home in what is sure to be a raucous crowd. (Full disclosure: It's very, very dissappointing this isn't a night game, because Mizzou fans tend to be a little lackluster in the a.m. but turn into freaking rock stars by night. That is obviously due to the massive amounts of alcohol we're able to consume prior to kickoff. See: The Oklahoma game in 2010 when College Gameday came to town. I'd put that crowd up against any home crowd in the country. It was electric. Again, night games equal more alcohol intake, which leads to lots of rowdy Mizzou fans. They are a very good thing. Beware South Carolina — especially if Mizzou pulls off this win and enters the 6 p.m. kickoff Oct. 25 7-0 and the SEC East is on the line.)
My heart tells me Mauk will show out in his debut and the defense will take care of a brutal Gator offense and the Tigers win going away. But my mind and better college football judgment tells me this will be a close contest. It will take some time for Mauk to settle in against the freakishly talented Florida defense and the Mizzou defense will need to make-up for that. I think it will be a relatively low-scoring contest — Florida (4-2) is 0-2 when it doesn't score 20 points and both of those contests came on the road (Miami and LSU). I think that trend continues and that's why I'm picking Mizzou to remain undefeated for at least one more glorious week: Mizzou 23, Florida 17.
I'll be at Homecoming against South Carolina and hope to even remember a few things to write about afterward.
I had made the arrangements for the trip well before the season began. And heading into the season I was quite certain I had booked a weekend in mid-October that would be tons of fun with friends and family that would include plenty of southern eye candy, but would bring some anguish in terms of the actual football game. Then Mizzou began the season 5-0 and destroyed every opponent in their path, including Indiana and Vanderbilt on the road — both in which they opened up as Vegas underdogs.
Then the unthinkable happened for this life-long Mizzou fan. The Tigers went into Athens and their beautiful while altogether terrifying Sanford Stadium and thoroughly outplayed the Dawgs, winning 41-26 going away. It vaulted Mizzou (6-0, 2-0) to No. 14 in the AP poll, its highest ranking since 2010. And this little fantastic stat emerged out of the weekend: Two teams have beaten every opponent by at least 15 points — Oregon and Mizzou. Wild. Of course, in typical Mizzou fashion, QB James Franklin injured his shoulder on a questionable hit as he was getting rid of the ball and is expected to miss three to five weeks.
Look, if you follow this program as closely as I do you knew the talent was there. I was quite sure the Tigers were going to take the SEC by storm in their first season last year and was at the conference debut against Georgia in which they took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter before Jarvis Jones and the Georgia defense happened. Worse than the misleading 41-20 final score was the damage done to quarterback James Franklin and the offensive line late in that game. Jarvis Jones ruined Franklin on a couple hits in the fourth quarter and three starters up front went down with injuries and while none of us knew at the time, that was the end of the season. Franklin payed in just five more games and didn't look good in those games and backup freshman Corbin Berkstresser was a disaster behind a makeshift offensive line. It was a shame, really, because there was so much talent at the wide receiver position.
This season, all that talent remains for the most part, and Henry Josey returned from his devastating knee injury to complement a well above-average threesome in the backfield with senior Marcus Murphy and sophomore Russel Hansbrough. Dorial Green-Beckham is a flat out stud and is living up to his No. 1 recruit in the nation billing and he's arguably been the third best receiver on the team behind senior LaDamian Washington, who has seven touchdowns and senior Marcus Lucas. Oh, and the offensive line is healthy. Stud sophomore lineman Evan Boehm has shifted to center and snaps are no longer hitting the feet or going over the head of the QB like they were seemingly once every series last year.
I knew the offense would be very good this year. There was too much talent for it not to be. The defense, however, was my main concern and I thought it would be the difference between this team winning seven games and say, nine.
The defense isn't Alabama, or even this week's opponent Florida, but as I was telling my Dad over the phone and pretty much any Mizzou fan in Athens that would listen, it's a big-play defense.
They get tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks — ask Aaron Murray — thanks to a group of stellar defensive ends led by senior Michael Sam, who has six sacks and scored on a 21-yard fumble recovery to put Mizzou up 28-10 against Georgia. That constant duress they put on the QB has led to the wealth of turnovers the defense has created this season. The defense has 13 interceptions and two fumble recoveries and is +9 as a team.
It all equates to a 6-0 start. Being a Mizzou fan and knowing better, my first instinct is to wonder when it will all come to a screeching halt. But I've thought better of it after that Georgia trip. That game, no matter the injury troubles the Dawgs had at some key skill positions, was a statement by Mizzou. I don't know how much longer they can remain unbeaten, but the Tigers have made the fall a lot of fun so far.
No matter what happens in the next two games, which will no doubt determine whether this squad is capable of playing in the SEC Championship game or just a good team who will play in an above-average bowl game, I'm going to enjoy the ride.
The Tigers are legitimately a good football team, who will undergo a wild next three weeks with three straight home games against Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. Go 3-0 in that stretch and they're a lock for the SEC East title. Go 2-1, it's intriguing still. Go 1-2, it's what everyone outside of Columbia, Mo. is expecting, and you're still 7-2. Go 0-3, well, that will suck.
But it all starts on Saturday at 11:20 a.m. Florida comes in with its putrid offense and formidable defense. Mizzou is starting a backup, first-year freshman quarterback in Maty Mauk to try and lead its high-powered offense, which has put up 45 points a game. Mauk is the all-time high school leader in passing yards and has the peripherals that are eerily similar to Mizzou legend Chase Daniel. Still, he's a complete unknown coming into this contest and it amps up the drama of the game even more.
The Tigers are a 3-point underdog, which continues the trend of the last two weeks. Only this time they are at home in what is sure to be a raucous crowd. (Full disclosure: It's very, very dissappointing this isn't a night game, because Mizzou fans tend to be a little lackluster in the a.m. but turn into freaking rock stars by night. That is obviously due to the massive amounts of alcohol we're able to consume prior to kickoff. See: The Oklahoma game in 2010 when College Gameday came to town. I'd put that crowd up against any home crowd in the country. It was electric. Again, night games equal more alcohol intake, which leads to lots of rowdy Mizzou fans. They are a very good thing. Beware South Carolina — especially if Mizzou pulls off this win and enters the 6 p.m. kickoff Oct. 25 7-0 and the SEC East is on the line.)
My heart tells me Mauk will show out in his debut and the defense will take care of a brutal Gator offense and the Tigers win going away. But my mind and better college football judgment tells me this will be a close contest. It will take some time for Mauk to settle in against the freakishly talented Florida defense and the Mizzou defense will need to make-up for that. I think it will be a relatively low-scoring contest — Florida (4-2) is 0-2 when it doesn't score 20 points and both of those contests came on the road (Miami and LSU). I think that trend continues and that's why I'm picking Mizzou to remain undefeated for at least one more glorious week: Mizzou 23, Florida 17.
I'll be at Homecoming against South Carolina and hope to even remember a few things to write about afterward.
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The Curious Case of Billy Butler
To preface this post, Billy Butler is great. I think he's a talented hitter and means a great deal to the city and the clubhouse of young players. This season was probably the nadir of his prime and considering his age (27) it was confusing. So, with that out of the way, I think it's time to have a serious discussion about what Butler is as a baseball player and what he means to the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals just had their best season (86-76) in my lifetime (24 years) and had a positive run differential (+47) for just the second time in 20 years — not counting the strike-shortened 1994 season — but predictably missed the playoffs by six games. The reason for this was their ineptitude on offense.
While the Royals pitching was unexpectedly phenomenal — allowing the fewest runs (601) in the American League, thanks in large part to perhaps the league's best defense depending on which defensive analytics you choose to believe in — the offense was far from good. It was the reason this team missed the playoffs and I'm not sure anyone saw this amount of futility coming: 648 runs, 11th in the AL; 112 home runs, last in AL; .315 on-base percentage, ninth in AL (OK, most people saw that coming); .379 slugging, 12th. But hey, they were fifth in the league with a .260 batting average!
To be blunt, Butler had much to do with this team's offensive struggles this season. I know that's tough for some people to read, accept, understand due to blinded fanhood and/or an obsession with all sabermetric-inspired thinkers' favorite statistic of OBP, but it's the truth. I'll qualify that assertion with what should be an obvious caveat: Butler is a good hitter who had a down year and if every other player in the lineup had his numbers the Royals would've won 100 games this year.
Butler's slash line this season was .289/.374/.412. Not bad right? The problem with those numbers is he's a DH. A very, very slow DH at that. That's pretty much a dream line for a leadoff hitter and a good line for a No. 2 hitter, who has plus speed. Butler, however, has zero speed, so the value of him getting on base is not the same as, say, Mike Trout's value of getting on base. There's a reason he only accumulated a 1.4 WAR this season, per Fangraphs, despite having the ninth-highest OBP in the league. The only similar WAR's among players in the top 20 of OBP are Daniel Nava (1.8), who's value is brought down by his wretched defense in the Red Sox outfield, and Prince Fielder (2.2), who is also poor defensively at first base and is entering a declining phase of his career at age 29. Both, however, were still more valuable than Butler this season despite OBP's — Nava (.385) Fielder (.362) — that resembled his.
One of many counter arguments to Butler's relatively low value this season and in general throughout his career is that he is a DH, so is value is limited to just offense. To that point, the reason Butler is a DH, is because he is a below average defensive player at first base. And Eric Hosmer, even though the defensive metrics aren't exactly a fan of him, is a significant upgrade at the position. And Butler, who was an outfielder in high school and for part of his time in the minors, has no business patrolling the spacious confines at Kauffman Stadium. Like, it's not even worth considering putting him out there even if Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, David Lough and Jarrod Dyson were suddenly stricken with measles all in the same day. Who's fault is that? Billy Butler's. He has decreased his own value as a ball player by having only one real tool — and it's a very good tool at that — but it's all he has going for him.
Butler's one tool is hitting.
That's why he is a DH. And he has been one of the better DH's in baseball, although this season his value dipped in that group. But that's what you expect when you're a small market team and you're paying him $7.5 million a year with a $10 million option at the end of next season. On another team, like say Boston, his season would have been perfectly OK. But on the Royals, with this ball park and this lineup, he's paid to hit for power and he failed miserably this season in doing so, accumulating a .412 slugging percentage and just 15 home runs and 27 doubles. You would like to think some of that is bad luck, but he had a .326 BABIP this season which is well above league average and predictable for a good hitter like Butler who will have less infield hits in his career than Miley Cyrus rehab stints. His .341 BABPIP in 2012, which was his best as a pro, hitting .313/.373/.510, was somewhat lucky and a number in between this past year and 2012 is probably a good expectancy for him going forward.
This brings me to the most concerning part of Butler's season. He hit into a lot of ground-ball double plays. Like, a lot. 28 to be exact, which was the most in the league. The reasoning for this staggering number was his off-the-charts ground ball rate this season. Butler hit the ball on the ground 53.1 percent of the time this season — his previous high was 48.8 percent in 2008 when everyone hated him even though most non-idiots could tell he was a promising young hitter. When you're Alcides Escobar or Jarrod Dyson a ground ball rate like that is almost ideal, but when you're one of the slowest players in baseball, that's a nightmare. Butler's line drive percentage also dipped from 23.9% in 2012 to 20.5% this season. Those are both worrisome trends that need to be curbed next season. Butler also posted the lowest fly-ball percentage of his career at 26.4 percent. This, I'm actually OK with. I think we can agree that Butler's 29 home runs in 2012 were an anomaly. The exception, not the rule. His previous high before that was 21. The reason I'm OK with the lower fly ball rate is: 1) It's only 2.4% lower than it was during his breakout 2012 year, 2) Fly balls have a tendency to be caught more than not, and especially so at Kauffman, 3) Butler doesn't have great power, but he has the ability to drive the ball into gaps, so the more line drives and fewer fly balls for him the better.
It's a big reason why he had such a great 2012 campaign, because while more balls were flying over the fence, perhaps due to some luck, others were finding gaps and rolling to the warning track while he ended up at second. This begs the question, how much impact did not having Kevin Seitzer and his gap-hitting approach around this season have on Butler and nearly every other Royals hitter besides Eric Hosmer have on this season?
Butler is a good baseball player to be sure, but he's 27 and should be peaking at this point of his career, not declining. One bad season, while unfortunate, does happen to good baseball players. But it's imperative that he improve on his line-drive rate and extra-base prowess next season, while also decreasing his hideous ground-ball rate. If Butler can approach his 2012 season, the Royals are a much, much better team because of it. (OK, really like 1 win better, but having Butler rounding the bases under no duress or standing on second 20 times more has some hidden impact that WAR doesn't necessarily account for.)
He wasn't the problem in the Royals putrid offensive season, but considering his role and value to the team, the onus falls appropriately on him being a better player.
The Royals just had their best season (86-76) in my lifetime (24 years) and had a positive run differential (+47) for just the second time in 20 years — not counting the strike-shortened 1994 season — but predictably missed the playoffs by six games. The reason for this was their ineptitude on offense.
While the Royals pitching was unexpectedly phenomenal — allowing the fewest runs (601) in the American League, thanks in large part to perhaps the league's best defense depending on which defensive analytics you choose to believe in — the offense was far from good. It was the reason this team missed the playoffs and I'm not sure anyone saw this amount of futility coming: 648 runs, 11th in the AL; 112 home runs, last in AL; .315 on-base percentage, ninth in AL (OK, most people saw that coming); .379 slugging, 12th. But hey, they were fifth in the league with a .260 batting average!
To be blunt, Butler had much to do with this team's offensive struggles this season. I know that's tough for some people to read, accept, understand due to blinded fanhood and/or an obsession with all sabermetric-inspired thinkers' favorite statistic of OBP, but it's the truth. I'll qualify that assertion with what should be an obvious caveat: Butler is a good hitter who had a down year and if every other player in the lineup had his numbers the Royals would've won 100 games this year.
Butler's slash line this season was .289/.374/.412. Not bad right? The problem with those numbers is he's a DH. A very, very slow DH at that. That's pretty much a dream line for a leadoff hitter and a good line for a No. 2 hitter, who has plus speed. Butler, however, has zero speed, so the value of him getting on base is not the same as, say, Mike Trout's value of getting on base. There's a reason he only accumulated a 1.4 WAR this season, per Fangraphs, despite having the ninth-highest OBP in the league. The only similar WAR's among players in the top 20 of OBP are Daniel Nava (1.8), who's value is brought down by his wretched defense in the Red Sox outfield, and Prince Fielder (2.2), who is also poor defensively at first base and is entering a declining phase of his career at age 29. Both, however, were still more valuable than Butler this season despite OBP's — Nava (.385) Fielder (.362) — that resembled his.
One of many counter arguments to Butler's relatively low value this season and in general throughout his career is that he is a DH, so is value is limited to just offense. To that point, the reason Butler is a DH, is because he is a below average defensive player at first base. And Eric Hosmer, even though the defensive metrics aren't exactly a fan of him, is a significant upgrade at the position. And Butler, who was an outfielder in high school and for part of his time in the minors, has no business patrolling the spacious confines at Kauffman Stadium. Like, it's not even worth considering putting him out there even if Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, David Lough and Jarrod Dyson were suddenly stricken with measles all in the same day. Who's fault is that? Billy Butler's. He has decreased his own value as a ball player by having only one real tool — and it's a very good tool at that — but it's all he has going for him.
Butler's one tool is hitting.
That's why he is a DH. And he has been one of the better DH's in baseball, although this season his value dipped in that group. But that's what you expect when you're a small market team and you're paying him $7.5 million a year with a $10 million option at the end of next season. On another team, like say Boston, his season would have been perfectly OK. But on the Royals, with this ball park and this lineup, he's paid to hit for power and he failed miserably this season in doing so, accumulating a .412 slugging percentage and just 15 home runs and 27 doubles. You would like to think some of that is bad luck, but he had a .326 BABIP this season which is well above league average and predictable for a good hitter like Butler who will have less infield hits in his career than Miley Cyrus rehab stints. His .341 BABPIP in 2012, which was his best as a pro, hitting .313/.373/.510, was somewhat lucky and a number in between this past year and 2012 is probably a good expectancy for him going forward.
This brings me to the most concerning part of Butler's season. He hit into a lot of ground-ball double plays. Like, a lot. 28 to be exact, which was the most in the league. The reasoning for this staggering number was his off-the-charts ground ball rate this season. Butler hit the ball on the ground 53.1 percent of the time this season — his previous high was 48.8 percent in 2008 when everyone hated him even though most non-idiots could tell he was a promising young hitter. When you're Alcides Escobar or Jarrod Dyson a ground ball rate like that is almost ideal, but when you're one of the slowest players in baseball, that's a nightmare. Butler's line drive percentage also dipped from 23.9% in 2012 to 20.5% this season. Those are both worrisome trends that need to be curbed next season. Butler also posted the lowest fly-ball percentage of his career at 26.4 percent. This, I'm actually OK with. I think we can agree that Butler's 29 home runs in 2012 were an anomaly. The exception, not the rule. His previous high before that was 21. The reason I'm OK with the lower fly ball rate is: 1) It's only 2.4% lower than it was during his breakout 2012 year, 2) Fly balls have a tendency to be caught more than not, and especially so at Kauffman, 3) Butler doesn't have great power, but he has the ability to drive the ball into gaps, so the more line drives and fewer fly balls for him the better.
It's a big reason why he had such a great 2012 campaign, because while more balls were flying over the fence, perhaps due to some luck, others were finding gaps and rolling to the warning track while he ended up at second. This begs the question, how much impact did not having Kevin Seitzer and his gap-hitting approach around this season have on Butler and nearly every other Royals hitter besides Eric Hosmer have on this season?
Butler is a good baseball player to be sure, but he's 27 and should be peaking at this point of his career, not declining. One bad season, while unfortunate, does happen to good baseball players. But it's imperative that he improve on his line-drive rate and extra-base prowess next season, while also decreasing his hideous ground-ball rate. If Butler can approach his 2012 season, the Royals are a much, much better team because of it. (OK, really like 1 win better, but having Butler rounding the bases under no duress or standing on second 20 times more has some hidden impact that WAR doesn't necessarily account for.)
He wasn't the problem in the Royals putrid offensive season, but considering his role and value to the team, the onus falls appropriately on him being a better player.
Friday, September 27, 2013
This is Fun
Lets get this out of the way: The 2013 Kansas City Royals are in all likelihood not going to make the playoffs. They are 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card slot with seven games to go. And their division rival, the Cleveland Indians, look extremely poised to nab the final spot.
Now that that's out of the way.
Wow, this is a lot of fun. The Royals had crushed the spirits of me and whole host of fans in my generation when they began an astounding 4-19 stretch in May that lasted until mid June and flipped a 17-10 start into a 21-29 nightmare very quickly. They inched their way to 43-43 after a win over the Yankees to open a four-game series with just six games left before the All-Star break. And they proceeded to lose all six. Three straight to the Yankees and three more to the Indians to limp into the break 43-49, collectively shattering any last bit of optimism fans had on a once promising season.
Me and my good buddy Jack, who talk Royals and baseball almost every single day, had nothing to say to each other for the first time. Just utter frustration and bitter disappointment that we'd grown accustom to in rooting for this franchise, but for some reason it hurt worse this time around, because this group of young players was supposed to be different.
All of that is to say, I didn't see this second half of the season coming. It's been glorious. And Justin Maxwell — the lone acquisition GM Dayton Moore made at the trading deadline — put an incredible bow on it Sunday afternoon in front of the most glorious sight this beleaguered fan's eyes have ever witnessed.
0-0 game. Bottom of the 10th inning. Bases loaded. Two outs. 3-2 count. BOOM.
A grand slam that was so thundering off the bat of Maxwell that he didn't even take the time to admire it or watch it land before turning away to the dugout and celebrating with his teammates and fans who were watching it go some 450 feet in the background. It was September 22 and the Royals just won their 82nd game — ensuring the first winning season in 10 years and just the third in my lifetime — and Kauffman Stadium was filled to the brim with fans in blue in a frenzy.
I text my buddy Jack, my brother Brad and my buddy Justin and they all were in the process of texting me some form of "I can't believe it!" or "Ohhhhhh myyyyyy goddddd!!!" and better "This is so much fun!"
That last one is the text that rings so pure in my heart when it comes to this team, this franchise. When you support a losing franchise, like a historically awful franchise ever since you entered this world, today doesn't happen often. I mean, it never happens.
It was almost too much to grasp. This whole time the Royals have been on an incredible second-half surge in which they're 39-24, the chase for a Wild Card berth has always been at the forefront. It was improbable and it was going to take a lot of collapsing by some teams who quite frankly appeared too good to collapse. The Rays did, and then found themselves of late and are likely in the playoffs. The Orioles didn't collapse, but they didn't play great in the second half, allowing for less competition. The Rangers did in a big, big way, as perhaps best witnessed with the Royals walk-off that dropped them to 5-16 in the month of September. Unfortunately, the Indians didn't. And they're playing as well as the Royals and have a much easier schedule which they've destroyed.
But, with the frantic nature of scoreboard watching and following the Royals try and make a push, I never considered the momentous moment that inevitably awaited when they hit 82 wins. And for some reason, Maxwell's bomb in front of a packed house on the final home game of the regular season to push the team to it's first winning season sunk in all at once. I sat there and took it in and thought, "wow, this sport is even more amazing when your team is good."
Forgive me for trying to tie sex into baseball, but this analogy seems the most fitting, but bare with me here: Baseball is like sex. The first time you have sex it's a great experience, sort of, because you're discovering something amazing for the first time in your life. And you think to yourself, "I can't believe I've been missing out on this for my entire life!" Maybe the first time you had sex it was with someone you really loved, but it's more likely that you didn't, like me, so the first time you have sex with someone you really care for. Someone you truly love, it's the best feeling you will ever experience. And assuming you're in a relationship with them, engaged and married, it continues.
I fell in love with the Royals after the first game I went to at Kauffman Stadium — that I remember — when I was 10 years old. It was a bad experience for the next 14 years. The
Sunday, August 18, 2013
On the Royals and Opportunity
It's Aug. 16 and as I sit here and type this, the Royals are 63-57 and just took the first game of a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers as Danny Duffy out-dueled Justin Verlander.
That's a weird sentence to type.
The last month has been weird to process.
Forget the fact the Royals were 43-49 at the All-Star break and I, as well as most fans, wanted and expected the team to be sellers. General Manager Dayton Moore blasphemously said the team was still a contender and they could come out of the break and win 15 out of 20 and be right back in the race. He was rightfully mocked. 15 out of 20 isn't easily done by any team, and the Royals have never accomplished that feat under Moore's seven-year watch. So of course, they didn't achieve that outlandish feat.
They won 16 of 20.
They flipped the switch from six under .500 to six over .500 (59-53) in a matter of three weeks. And they found themselves right in the thick of the wild card race. Unfortunately, they only made up a half game on the Tigers, who were equally hot in that stretch. Nevertheless, baseball suddenly became relevant for Royals fans in August.
I predicted this team to win 84 games before the season. A winning season, but not enough to make their first postseason appearance since 1985 — the year they won the whole freaking thing. Based off of Baseball Prospectus' win-loss projections, that is exactly the win total the Royals are on pace for. That certainly won't get them to the playoffs. A win total of 90 would be enough to throw their hat in the ring. Baltimore and Texas won 93 games last season and tied for the final two wild card spots and that's about where current wild card occupants Tampa Bay (69-51) and Oakland (69-52) are headed toward. In order to reach 93 wins the Royals, who sit at 64-57 after sweeping the second half of a doubleheader against the Tigers, would need to finish the season 29-12. That is roughly .700 baseball, which is difficult, but not improbable. And slightly less ambitious than the Royals have been playing to get to this position. And as I alluded to earlier, I'm here to talk about opportunity, however slim it might be.
Update: The Royals lost the final two games of the series to the Tigers and are now 64-59, thus needing to go 29-10 to get to 93 wins. This post is seeming more dire by the moment isn't it? Alas, positivity! Onward!
Before I delve into the remainder of the schedule — which is more than favorable — lets discuss some statistics.
The Royals currently have the eighth best run differential among American League teams at +25. The teams ahead of them are the Rangers (+58) and the Orioles (+44) and the Indians (+30). What does this mean? Perhaps nothing, as run differential isn't a hard and fast rule for who makes the playoffs. But in most cases, it certainly does. Take last season for example — every team who made the playoffs in the AL had a run differential of better than +56 with the exception of the Orioles. The O's were perhaps one of the biggest anomalies in playoff history, as their record was a shiny 93-69, but they had a run differential of just +7. And the team they finished three games ahead of for a playoff spot, the Rays, had a +120 which was the second best in the league. The reason for Baltimore's peculiar ascent into the playoffs ahead of their AL East counterpart was a ridiculous winning percentage in one-run games. The Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games last season and that .763 winning percentage is the third best all time in one run games.
The Royals aren't tracking anywhere near that level of randomness, but they are 24-19 in one-run games so far this season. And it's no mistake they, like the Orioles a year ago, have a fantastic bullpen to go along with their luck. The bullpen is spearheaded by closer Greg Holland who is on pace for one of the greatest season's by a reliever ever. Holland has converted 34 save opportunities and 27 in a row after saving both ends of the doubleheader against Detroit on Friday. In 49 innings he has a microscopic 1.47 earned-run average and has a ridiculous 77 strikeouts against just 13 walks. That equates to 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Closers, and in that case relievers in general, aren't overly valuable. That's why they're so easily replaceable and dispensable. Holland, however, has been worth almost 2 wins above replacement (1.8 WAR) this season and if he keeps his current pace he will easily eclipse that. Orioles closer Jim Johnson had a 2.4 WAR last season and his season, while spectacular, is a far cry from Holland's current pace. (Johnson has also imploded of late for the Orioles, blowing three consecutive saves, and is just a 0.4 WAR pitcher this season. And Baltimore, who "just knew how to win close games last season" is 14-21 in one-run games this season with virtually the same exact roster.)
Anyway, if theres a comparison to be made for the Royals it's to last year's Orioles. And while 93 wins is ambitious, with a good pitching staff, backed by the best defense in baseball and great bullpen bookended by the best closer in baseball coupled with a favorable schedule — opportunity is abound.
Now, about that schedule.
The Tigers: The Royals are in the midst of perhaps their most important series in my lifetime. Which by the way is sad, but I digress. It's not likely they'll be able to catch the Tigers, who I think are the best team in baseball, but for whatever reason the Royals seem to match up well with them. Even if they drop the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals will still hold a 7-6 advantage in the season series. (Update: They did just that. But it's 7-6 for the year, so suck it Detroit.) They will see the Tigers six more times with a three-game home series Sept. 6-8 and a three-game series in Detroit the following weekend. There is opportunity to gain direct ground on the division leader.
The Indians: I've never been sold on the Tribe as a serious playoff contender or as a bigger threat to the Tigers than the Royals. But I love what they did with their lineup — adding lots of guys who do a hell of a job at getting on base — and their approach challenges the core pre-conceived notion in baseball: You can't win without good pitching. The Indians do not have good pitching. Their staff ranks 12th in the AL in ERA. But their offense is the fourth best in the AL. And while the Tigers own the Indians — 13-3 in the season series — the Royals have struggled with the Tribe and have a losing record of 5-8 against them. Without question, the biggest stretch of the season comes Sept. 6-18 when they play six against the Tigers and six against the Indians. If the Royals can go 8-4 or 9-3 in that stretch — and just so we're clear, they'll need to do just that — the final 10 games of the season will be very interesting.
The Royals play three in Cleveland Sept. 9-11 and three at Kauffman Sept. 16-18.
The Rest of the Schedule: If you take away the 12 games against the two division foes, the Royals have just four (!) games of the 27 remaining against teams above .500. A makeup home contest against the Rays Aug. 26 and three home games against the Rangers following the important 12 game stretch beginning Sept. 20. The Rangers and Rays, of course, are currently ahead of the Royals in the wild card race, so those games loom large depending on how things shake out in their respective divisions. The Rangers are currently a 1/2 game up on the Athletics in the West and the Rays trail the Red Sox by one game in the East.
For the record, I think the Athletics will win the West and the Rays will leapfrog the Red Sox in the East, but they're big games nonetheless.
The Royals have 10 games left against the Twins and White Sox, who they've gone a combined 19-9 against, including a four-game road series against the White Sox to end the season. After the series with the Tigers, the Royals have a 17-game stretch against below .500 teams with the exception of the one-game makeup against the Rays. They need to scorch through that slate if they're to have a decent opportunity in the final month of the season. That stretch, if dealt with properly, will lead into the biggest stretch of the season against the Tigers and Indians. If the Royals can win 12 or 13 of those 17 — more would be ideal — they'll set themselves within the 77-63 or 76-64 range. That narrows the daunting task of 27-10 to finish the season suddenly to winning something like 15 of 22 to finish 92-70.
A potential and significant hinderance to the Royals making this run is the absence of Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas. Cain is out with a strained oblique, and as Bob Dutton of the KC Star writes, his return might be farther away than expected. This is particularly discouraging news, because despite what the peripherals tell you about Cain: .261/.324/.362, he has been the Royals most valuable player this season. He's been worth 3.4 WAR according to Baseball Reference — the highest on the team slightly ahead of surging Eric Hosmer (2.8), despite playing in just 96 games this season. The bulk of his value comes from his unbelievable defense in center field, where he is a 2.6 dWAR player and has saved 22 runs ALL BY HIMSELF this season according to The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric for a defense that has saved far and away the most runs of any team with 72. Cain's absence in centerfield is a huge detriment to the Royals. And while his bat isn't great, his OBP of .324 is theoretically being replaced by either second baseman Chris Getz' .299 OBP, newly acquired Emilio Bonifacio's .263 OBP or fourth outfielder Jarrod Dyson's .317 OBP. A downgrade in every sense. If Cain is shelved for the next couple weeks, it's obviously a continued big blow, but if the timetable of his return is the second week of September, as hinted in Dutton's article, it's a crucial return with the 12-game Detroit/Cleveland stretch ahead. Moustakas played against the Tigers on Saturday and while he appeared gingerly on the bases, he went 2 for 3 in the six hole. He is unquestionably an upgrade from Jamey Carroll, Bonifacio and de facto Getz. His second-half surge has been dully noted by this skeptic and he is needed the rest of the way for this team to have any kind of chance to put up more than three runs a game in the coming weeks.
As it is now, after predictably dropping the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals are 64-59 with a +25 run differential and six games out of the second wild card.
It's a formidable challenge ahead and the prospects of snagging a postseason berth are slim, but not impossible. And while it's somewhat depressing — check that, extremely depressing — it's a certainty the Royals will be playing meaningful baseball in September for the first time in my lifetime. And that's something to get excited about.
Opportunity — it's a beautiful thing.
That's a weird sentence to type.
The last month has been weird to process.
Forget the fact the Royals were 43-49 at the All-Star break and I, as well as most fans, wanted and expected the team to be sellers. General Manager Dayton Moore blasphemously said the team was still a contender and they could come out of the break and win 15 out of 20 and be right back in the race. He was rightfully mocked. 15 out of 20 isn't easily done by any team, and the Royals have never accomplished that feat under Moore's seven-year watch. So of course, they didn't achieve that outlandish feat.
They won 16 of 20.
They flipped the switch from six under .500 to six over .500 (59-53) in a matter of three weeks. And they found themselves right in the thick of the wild card race. Unfortunately, they only made up a half game on the Tigers, who were equally hot in that stretch. Nevertheless, baseball suddenly became relevant for Royals fans in August.
I predicted this team to win 84 games before the season. A winning season, but not enough to make their first postseason appearance since 1985 — the year they won the whole freaking thing. Based off of Baseball Prospectus' win-loss projections, that is exactly the win total the Royals are on pace for. That certainly won't get them to the playoffs. A win total of 90 would be enough to throw their hat in the ring. Baltimore and Texas won 93 games last season and tied for the final two wild card spots and that's about where current wild card occupants Tampa Bay (69-51) and Oakland (69-52) are headed toward. In order to reach 93 wins the Royals, who sit at 64-57 after sweeping the second half of a doubleheader against the Tigers, would need to finish the season 29-12. That is roughly .700 baseball, which is difficult, but not improbable. And slightly less ambitious than the Royals have been playing to get to this position. And as I alluded to earlier, I'm here to talk about opportunity, however slim it might be.
Update: The Royals lost the final two games of the series to the Tigers and are now 64-59, thus needing to go 29-10 to get to 93 wins. This post is seeming more dire by the moment isn't it? Alas, positivity! Onward!
Before I delve into the remainder of the schedule — which is more than favorable — lets discuss some statistics.
The Royals currently have the eighth best run differential among American League teams at +25. The teams ahead of them are the Rangers (+58) and the Orioles (+44) and the Indians (+30). What does this mean? Perhaps nothing, as run differential isn't a hard and fast rule for who makes the playoffs. But in most cases, it certainly does. Take last season for example — every team who made the playoffs in the AL had a run differential of better than +56 with the exception of the Orioles. The O's were perhaps one of the biggest anomalies in playoff history, as their record was a shiny 93-69, but they had a run differential of just +7. And the team they finished three games ahead of for a playoff spot, the Rays, had a +120 which was the second best in the league. The reason for Baltimore's peculiar ascent into the playoffs ahead of their AL East counterpart was a ridiculous winning percentage in one-run games. The Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games last season and that .763 winning percentage is the third best all time in one run games.
The Royals aren't tracking anywhere near that level of randomness, but they are 24-19 in one-run games so far this season. And it's no mistake they, like the Orioles a year ago, have a fantastic bullpen to go along with their luck. The bullpen is spearheaded by closer Greg Holland who is on pace for one of the greatest season's by a reliever ever. Holland has converted 34 save opportunities and 27 in a row after saving both ends of the doubleheader against Detroit on Friday. In 49 innings he has a microscopic 1.47 earned-run average and has a ridiculous 77 strikeouts against just 13 walks. That equates to 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Closers, and in that case relievers in general, aren't overly valuable. That's why they're so easily replaceable and dispensable. Holland, however, has been worth almost 2 wins above replacement (1.8 WAR) this season and if he keeps his current pace he will easily eclipse that. Orioles closer Jim Johnson had a 2.4 WAR last season and his season, while spectacular, is a far cry from Holland's current pace. (Johnson has also imploded of late for the Orioles, blowing three consecutive saves, and is just a 0.4 WAR pitcher this season. And Baltimore, who "just knew how to win close games last season" is 14-21 in one-run games this season with virtually the same exact roster.)
Anyway, if theres a comparison to be made for the Royals it's to last year's Orioles. And while 93 wins is ambitious, with a good pitching staff, backed by the best defense in baseball and great bullpen bookended by the best closer in baseball coupled with a favorable schedule — opportunity is abound.
Now, about that schedule.
The Tigers: The Royals are in the midst of perhaps their most important series in my lifetime. Which by the way is sad, but I digress. It's not likely they'll be able to catch the Tigers, who I think are the best team in baseball, but for whatever reason the Royals seem to match up well with them. Even if they drop the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals will still hold a 7-6 advantage in the season series. (Update: They did just that. But it's 7-6 for the year, so suck it Detroit.) They will see the Tigers six more times with a three-game home series Sept. 6-8 and a three-game series in Detroit the following weekend. There is opportunity to gain direct ground on the division leader.
The Indians: I've never been sold on the Tribe as a serious playoff contender or as a bigger threat to the Tigers than the Royals. But I love what they did with their lineup — adding lots of guys who do a hell of a job at getting on base — and their approach challenges the core pre-conceived notion in baseball: You can't win without good pitching. The Indians do not have good pitching. Their staff ranks 12th in the AL in ERA. But their offense is the fourth best in the AL. And while the Tigers own the Indians — 13-3 in the season series — the Royals have struggled with the Tribe and have a losing record of 5-8 against them. Without question, the biggest stretch of the season comes Sept. 6-18 when they play six against the Tigers and six against the Indians. If the Royals can go 8-4 or 9-3 in that stretch — and just so we're clear, they'll need to do just that — the final 10 games of the season will be very interesting.
The Royals play three in Cleveland Sept. 9-11 and three at Kauffman Sept. 16-18.
The Rest of the Schedule: If you take away the 12 games against the two division foes, the Royals have just four (!) games of the 27 remaining against teams above .500. A makeup home contest against the Rays Aug. 26 and three home games against the Rangers following the important 12 game stretch beginning Sept. 20. The Rangers and Rays, of course, are currently ahead of the Royals in the wild card race, so those games loom large depending on how things shake out in their respective divisions. The Rangers are currently a 1/2 game up on the Athletics in the West and the Rays trail the Red Sox by one game in the East.
For the record, I think the Athletics will win the West and the Rays will leapfrog the Red Sox in the East, but they're big games nonetheless.
The Royals have 10 games left against the Twins and White Sox, who they've gone a combined 19-9 against, including a four-game road series against the White Sox to end the season. After the series with the Tigers, the Royals have a 17-game stretch against below .500 teams with the exception of the one-game makeup against the Rays. They need to scorch through that slate if they're to have a decent opportunity in the final month of the season. That stretch, if dealt with properly, will lead into the biggest stretch of the season against the Tigers and Indians. If the Royals can win 12 or 13 of those 17 — more would be ideal — they'll set themselves within the 77-63 or 76-64 range. That narrows the daunting task of 27-10 to finish the season suddenly to winning something like 15 of 22 to finish 92-70.
A potential and significant hinderance to the Royals making this run is the absence of Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas. Cain is out with a strained oblique, and as Bob Dutton of the KC Star writes, his return might be farther away than expected. This is particularly discouraging news, because despite what the peripherals tell you about Cain: .261/.324/.362, he has been the Royals most valuable player this season. He's been worth 3.4 WAR according to Baseball Reference — the highest on the team slightly ahead of surging Eric Hosmer (2.8), despite playing in just 96 games this season. The bulk of his value comes from his unbelievable defense in center field, where he is a 2.6 dWAR player and has saved 22 runs ALL BY HIMSELF this season according to The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric for a defense that has saved far and away the most runs of any team with 72. Cain's absence in centerfield is a huge detriment to the Royals. And while his bat isn't great, his OBP of .324 is theoretically being replaced by either second baseman Chris Getz' .299 OBP, newly acquired Emilio Bonifacio's .263 OBP or fourth outfielder Jarrod Dyson's .317 OBP. A downgrade in every sense. If Cain is shelved for the next couple weeks, it's obviously a continued big blow, but if the timetable of his return is the second week of September, as hinted in Dutton's article, it's a crucial return with the 12-game Detroit/Cleveland stretch ahead. Moustakas played against the Tigers on Saturday and while he appeared gingerly on the bases, he went 2 for 3 in the six hole. He is unquestionably an upgrade from Jamey Carroll, Bonifacio and de facto Getz. His second-half surge has been dully noted by this skeptic and he is needed the rest of the way for this team to have any kind of chance to put up more than three runs a game in the coming weeks.
As it is now, after predictably dropping the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals are 64-59 with a +25 run differential and six games out of the second wild card.
It's a formidable challenge ahead and the prospects of snagging a postseason berth are slim, but not impossible. And while it's somewhat depressing — check that, extremely depressing — it's a certainty the Royals will be playing meaningful baseball in September for the first time in my lifetime. And that's something to get excited about.
Opportunity — it's a beautiful thing.
Friday, August 16, 2013
Greinke the Skeptic
The Greinke trade has been analyzed by the experts and broken down by the sabermetric geeks and the consensus is, well, there is no consensus. Some say the Royals got a great haul, like Buster Olney, but others feel they gave away their best pitcher in the last decade to add little to an already loaded farm system; Keith Law. I'm aligning myself with the former, but on a more moderate platform, like Rany Jazayerli. The Royals added a lot, but the fact that they had to make the trade is a complete failure on the behalf of Dayton Moore and the franchise. Zack Greinke didn't care if he played in the big market (New York, Boston, etc), he just wanted to pitch for playoff team, which is something Royals failed to accomplish during his time with the club.
But didn't Greinke know that the Royals have the best minor league system in baseball? Hadn't he heard of the massive numbers the Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers were putting up? Didn't someone tell him about the wealth of lefty arms that could complement him in the starting rotation in Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, and Danny Duffy?
Unfortunately for the Royals, Greinke had heard this before during former GM Allard Baird's days, however, this time he wasn't buying it. He had seen the fair share of can't-miss prospects that were suppose to surround him like Alex Gordon, come up to the majors and, well, miss. He no longer believed in or "trusted the process" that he was told to trust the seven years he was there. And who can blame him? If anything his comments toward the end of the 2010 season that doubted the future success of the franchise, brought him closer to Royals' fans.
I've never been as excited about the Royals' future as am I currently, but I'm still pessimistic about the Royals going to the playoffs for the first time in my lifetime, aren't you? As a Royals fan I've been told year after year to "trust the process," and for some crazy reason I'm still listening. Greinke, however, is not anymore.
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