This past Saturday I made the long trek from Iowa to Athens, Ga. to watch No. 25 Missouri take on the seventh-ranked Georgia Bulldogs.
I had made the arrangements for the trip well before the season began. And heading into the season I was quite certain I had booked a weekend in mid-October that would be tons of fun with friends and family that would include plenty of southern eye candy, but would bring some anguish in terms of the actual football game. Then Mizzou began the season 5-0 and destroyed every opponent in their path, including Indiana and Vanderbilt on the road — both in which they opened up as Vegas underdogs.
Then the unthinkable happened for this life-long Mizzou fan. The Tigers went into Athens and their beautiful while altogether terrifying Sanford Stadium and thoroughly outplayed the Dawgs, winning 41-26 going away. It vaulted Mizzou (6-0, 2-0) to No. 14 in the AP poll, its highest ranking since 2010. And this little fantastic stat emerged out of the weekend: Two teams have beaten every opponent by at least 15 points — Oregon and Mizzou. Wild. Of course, in typical Mizzou fashion, QB James Franklin injured his shoulder on a questionable hit as he was getting rid of the ball and is expected to miss three to five weeks.
Look, if you follow this program as closely as I do you knew the talent was there. I was quite sure the Tigers were going to take the SEC by storm in their first season last year and was at the conference debut against Georgia in which they took a 17-9 lead into the fourth quarter before Jarvis Jones and the Georgia defense happened. Worse than the misleading 41-20 final score was the damage done to quarterback James Franklin and the offensive line late in that game. Jarvis Jones ruined Franklin on a couple hits in the fourth quarter and three starters up front went down with injuries and while none of us knew at the time, that was the end of the season. Franklin payed in just five more games and didn't look good in those games and backup freshman Corbin Berkstresser was a disaster behind a makeshift offensive line. It was a shame, really, because there was so much talent at the wide receiver position.
This season, all that talent remains for the most part, and Henry Josey returned from his devastating knee injury to complement a well above-average threesome in the backfield with senior Marcus Murphy and sophomore Russel Hansbrough. Dorial Green-Beckham is a flat out stud and is living up to his No. 1 recruit in the nation billing and he's arguably been the third best receiver on the team behind senior LaDamian Washington, who has seven touchdowns and senior Marcus Lucas. Oh, and the offensive line is healthy. Stud sophomore lineman Evan Boehm has shifted to center and snaps are no longer hitting the feet or going over the head of the QB like they were seemingly once every series last year.
I knew the offense would be very good this year. There was too much talent for it not to be. The defense, however, was my main concern and I thought it would be the difference between this team winning seven games and say, nine.
The defense isn't Alabama, or even this week's opponent Florida, but as I was telling my Dad over the phone and pretty much any Mizzou fan in Athens that would listen, it's a big-play defense.
They get tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks — ask Aaron Murray — thanks to a group of stellar defensive ends led by senior Michael Sam, who has six sacks and scored on a 21-yard fumble recovery to put Mizzou up 28-10 against Georgia. That constant duress they put on the QB has led to the wealth of turnovers the defense has created this season. The defense has 13 interceptions and two fumble recoveries and is +9 as a team.
It all equates to a 6-0 start. Being a Mizzou fan and knowing better, my first instinct is to wonder when it will all come to a screeching halt. But I've thought better of it after that Georgia trip. That game, no matter the injury troubles the Dawgs had at some key skill positions, was a statement by Mizzou. I don't know how much longer they can remain unbeaten, but the Tigers have made the fall a lot of fun so far.
No matter what happens in the next two games, which will no doubt determine whether this squad is capable of playing in the SEC Championship game or just a good team who will play in an above-average bowl game, I'm going to enjoy the ride.
The Tigers are legitimately a good football team, who will undergo a wild next three weeks with three straight home games against Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee. Go 3-0 in that stretch and they're a lock for the SEC East title. Go 2-1, it's intriguing still. Go 1-2, it's what everyone outside of Columbia, Mo. is expecting, and you're still 7-2. Go 0-3, well, that will suck.
But it all starts on Saturday at 11:20 a.m. Florida comes in with its putrid offense and formidable defense. Mizzou is starting a backup, first-year freshman quarterback in Maty Mauk to try and lead its high-powered offense, which has put up 45 points a game. Mauk is the all-time high school leader in passing yards and has the peripherals that are eerily similar to Mizzou legend Chase Daniel. Still, he's a complete unknown coming into this contest and it amps up the drama of the game even more.
The Tigers are a 3-point underdog, which continues the trend of the last two weeks. Only this time they are at home in what is sure to be a raucous crowd. (Full disclosure: It's very, very dissappointing this isn't a night game, because Mizzou fans tend to be a little lackluster in the a.m. but turn into freaking rock stars by night. That is obviously due to the massive amounts of alcohol we're able to consume prior to kickoff. See: The Oklahoma game in 2010 when College Gameday came to town. I'd put that crowd up against any home crowd in the country. It was electric. Again, night games equal more alcohol intake, which leads to lots of rowdy Mizzou fans. They are a very good thing. Beware South Carolina — especially if Mizzou pulls off this win and enters the 6 p.m. kickoff Oct. 25 7-0 and the SEC East is on the line.)
My heart tells me Mauk will show out in his debut and the defense will take care of a brutal Gator offense and the Tigers win going away. But my mind and better college football judgment tells me this will be a close contest. It will take some time for Mauk to settle in against the freakishly talented Florida defense and the Mizzou defense will need to make-up for that. I think it will be a relatively low-scoring contest — Florida (4-2) is 0-2 when it doesn't score 20 points and both of those contests came on the road (Miami and LSU). I think that trend continues and that's why I'm picking Mizzou to remain undefeated for at least one more glorious week: Mizzou 23, Florida 17.
I'll be at Homecoming against South Carolina and hope to even remember a few things to write about afterward.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
The Curious Case of Billy Butler
To preface this post, Billy Butler is great. I think he's a talented hitter and means a great deal to the city and the clubhouse of young players. This season was probably the nadir of his prime and considering his age (27) it was confusing. So, with that out of the way, I think it's time to have a serious discussion about what Butler is as a baseball player and what he means to the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals just had their best season (86-76) in my lifetime (24 years) and had a positive run differential (+47) for just the second time in 20 years — not counting the strike-shortened 1994 season — but predictably missed the playoffs by six games. The reason for this was their ineptitude on offense.
While the Royals pitching was unexpectedly phenomenal — allowing the fewest runs (601) in the American League, thanks in large part to perhaps the league's best defense depending on which defensive analytics you choose to believe in — the offense was far from good. It was the reason this team missed the playoffs and I'm not sure anyone saw this amount of futility coming: 648 runs, 11th in the AL; 112 home runs, last in AL; .315 on-base percentage, ninth in AL (OK, most people saw that coming); .379 slugging, 12th. But hey, they were fifth in the league with a .260 batting average!
To be blunt, Butler had much to do with this team's offensive struggles this season. I know that's tough for some people to read, accept, understand due to blinded fanhood and/or an obsession with all sabermetric-inspired thinkers' favorite statistic of OBP, but it's the truth. I'll qualify that assertion with what should be an obvious caveat: Butler is a good hitter who had a down year and if every other player in the lineup had his numbers the Royals would've won 100 games this year.
Butler's slash line this season was .289/.374/.412. Not bad right? The problem with those numbers is he's a DH. A very, very slow DH at that. That's pretty much a dream line for a leadoff hitter and a good line for a No. 2 hitter, who has plus speed. Butler, however, has zero speed, so the value of him getting on base is not the same as, say, Mike Trout's value of getting on base. There's a reason he only accumulated a 1.4 WAR this season, per Fangraphs, despite having the ninth-highest OBP in the league. The only similar WAR's among players in the top 20 of OBP are Daniel Nava (1.8), who's value is brought down by his wretched defense in the Red Sox outfield, and Prince Fielder (2.2), who is also poor defensively at first base and is entering a declining phase of his career at age 29. Both, however, were still more valuable than Butler this season despite OBP's — Nava (.385) Fielder (.362) — that resembled his.
One of many counter arguments to Butler's relatively low value this season and in general throughout his career is that he is a DH, so is value is limited to just offense. To that point, the reason Butler is a DH, is because he is a below average defensive player at first base. And Eric Hosmer, even though the defensive metrics aren't exactly a fan of him, is a significant upgrade at the position. And Butler, who was an outfielder in high school and for part of his time in the minors, has no business patrolling the spacious confines at Kauffman Stadium. Like, it's not even worth considering putting him out there even if Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, David Lough and Jarrod Dyson were suddenly stricken with measles all in the same day. Who's fault is that? Billy Butler's. He has decreased his own value as a ball player by having only one real tool — and it's a very good tool at that — but it's all he has going for him.
Butler's one tool is hitting.
That's why he is a DH. And he has been one of the better DH's in baseball, although this season his value dipped in that group. But that's what you expect when you're a small market team and you're paying him $7.5 million a year with a $10 million option at the end of next season. On another team, like say Boston, his season would have been perfectly OK. But on the Royals, with this ball park and this lineup, he's paid to hit for power and he failed miserably this season in doing so, accumulating a .412 slugging percentage and just 15 home runs and 27 doubles. You would like to think some of that is bad luck, but he had a .326 BABIP this season which is well above league average and predictable for a good hitter like Butler who will have less infield hits in his career than Miley Cyrus rehab stints. His .341 BABPIP in 2012, which was his best as a pro, hitting .313/.373/.510, was somewhat lucky and a number in between this past year and 2012 is probably a good expectancy for him going forward.
This brings me to the most concerning part of Butler's season. He hit into a lot of ground-ball double plays. Like, a lot. 28 to be exact, which was the most in the league. The reasoning for this staggering number was his off-the-charts ground ball rate this season. Butler hit the ball on the ground 53.1 percent of the time this season — his previous high was 48.8 percent in 2008 when everyone hated him even though most non-idiots could tell he was a promising young hitter. When you're Alcides Escobar or Jarrod Dyson a ground ball rate like that is almost ideal, but when you're one of the slowest players in baseball, that's a nightmare. Butler's line drive percentage also dipped from 23.9% in 2012 to 20.5% this season. Those are both worrisome trends that need to be curbed next season. Butler also posted the lowest fly-ball percentage of his career at 26.4 percent. This, I'm actually OK with. I think we can agree that Butler's 29 home runs in 2012 were an anomaly. The exception, not the rule. His previous high before that was 21. The reason I'm OK with the lower fly ball rate is: 1) It's only 2.4% lower than it was during his breakout 2012 year, 2) Fly balls have a tendency to be caught more than not, and especially so at Kauffman, 3) Butler doesn't have great power, but he has the ability to drive the ball into gaps, so the more line drives and fewer fly balls for him the better.
It's a big reason why he had such a great 2012 campaign, because while more balls were flying over the fence, perhaps due to some luck, others were finding gaps and rolling to the warning track while he ended up at second. This begs the question, how much impact did not having Kevin Seitzer and his gap-hitting approach around this season have on Butler and nearly every other Royals hitter besides Eric Hosmer have on this season?
Butler is a good baseball player to be sure, but he's 27 and should be peaking at this point of his career, not declining. One bad season, while unfortunate, does happen to good baseball players. But it's imperative that he improve on his line-drive rate and extra-base prowess next season, while also decreasing his hideous ground-ball rate. If Butler can approach his 2012 season, the Royals are a much, much better team because of it. (OK, really like 1 win better, but having Butler rounding the bases under no duress or standing on second 20 times more has some hidden impact that WAR doesn't necessarily account for.)
He wasn't the problem in the Royals putrid offensive season, but considering his role and value to the team, the onus falls appropriately on him being a better player.
The Royals just had their best season (86-76) in my lifetime (24 years) and had a positive run differential (+47) for just the second time in 20 years — not counting the strike-shortened 1994 season — but predictably missed the playoffs by six games. The reason for this was their ineptitude on offense.
While the Royals pitching was unexpectedly phenomenal — allowing the fewest runs (601) in the American League, thanks in large part to perhaps the league's best defense depending on which defensive analytics you choose to believe in — the offense was far from good. It was the reason this team missed the playoffs and I'm not sure anyone saw this amount of futility coming: 648 runs, 11th in the AL; 112 home runs, last in AL; .315 on-base percentage, ninth in AL (OK, most people saw that coming); .379 slugging, 12th. But hey, they were fifth in the league with a .260 batting average!
To be blunt, Butler had much to do with this team's offensive struggles this season. I know that's tough for some people to read, accept, understand due to blinded fanhood and/or an obsession with all sabermetric-inspired thinkers' favorite statistic of OBP, but it's the truth. I'll qualify that assertion with what should be an obvious caveat: Butler is a good hitter who had a down year and if every other player in the lineup had his numbers the Royals would've won 100 games this year.
Butler's slash line this season was .289/.374/.412. Not bad right? The problem with those numbers is he's a DH. A very, very slow DH at that. That's pretty much a dream line for a leadoff hitter and a good line for a No. 2 hitter, who has plus speed. Butler, however, has zero speed, so the value of him getting on base is not the same as, say, Mike Trout's value of getting on base. There's a reason he only accumulated a 1.4 WAR this season, per Fangraphs, despite having the ninth-highest OBP in the league. The only similar WAR's among players in the top 20 of OBP are Daniel Nava (1.8), who's value is brought down by his wretched defense in the Red Sox outfield, and Prince Fielder (2.2), who is also poor defensively at first base and is entering a declining phase of his career at age 29. Both, however, were still more valuable than Butler this season despite OBP's — Nava (.385) Fielder (.362) — that resembled his.
One of many counter arguments to Butler's relatively low value this season and in general throughout his career is that he is a DH, so is value is limited to just offense. To that point, the reason Butler is a DH, is because he is a below average defensive player at first base. And Eric Hosmer, even though the defensive metrics aren't exactly a fan of him, is a significant upgrade at the position. And Butler, who was an outfielder in high school and for part of his time in the minors, has no business patrolling the spacious confines at Kauffman Stadium. Like, it's not even worth considering putting him out there even if Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, David Lough and Jarrod Dyson were suddenly stricken with measles all in the same day. Who's fault is that? Billy Butler's. He has decreased his own value as a ball player by having only one real tool — and it's a very good tool at that — but it's all he has going for him.
Butler's one tool is hitting.
That's why he is a DH. And he has been one of the better DH's in baseball, although this season his value dipped in that group. But that's what you expect when you're a small market team and you're paying him $7.5 million a year with a $10 million option at the end of next season. On another team, like say Boston, his season would have been perfectly OK. But on the Royals, with this ball park and this lineup, he's paid to hit for power and he failed miserably this season in doing so, accumulating a .412 slugging percentage and just 15 home runs and 27 doubles. You would like to think some of that is bad luck, but he had a .326 BABIP this season which is well above league average and predictable for a good hitter like Butler who will have less infield hits in his career than Miley Cyrus rehab stints. His .341 BABPIP in 2012, which was his best as a pro, hitting .313/.373/.510, was somewhat lucky and a number in between this past year and 2012 is probably a good expectancy for him going forward.
This brings me to the most concerning part of Butler's season. He hit into a lot of ground-ball double plays. Like, a lot. 28 to be exact, which was the most in the league. The reasoning for this staggering number was his off-the-charts ground ball rate this season. Butler hit the ball on the ground 53.1 percent of the time this season — his previous high was 48.8 percent in 2008 when everyone hated him even though most non-idiots could tell he was a promising young hitter. When you're Alcides Escobar or Jarrod Dyson a ground ball rate like that is almost ideal, but when you're one of the slowest players in baseball, that's a nightmare. Butler's line drive percentage also dipped from 23.9% in 2012 to 20.5% this season. Those are both worrisome trends that need to be curbed next season. Butler also posted the lowest fly-ball percentage of his career at 26.4 percent. This, I'm actually OK with. I think we can agree that Butler's 29 home runs in 2012 were an anomaly. The exception, not the rule. His previous high before that was 21. The reason I'm OK with the lower fly ball rate is: 1) It's only 2.4% lower than it was during his breakout 2012 year, 2) Fly balls have a tendency to be caught more than not, and especially so at Kauffman, 3) Butler doesn't have great power, but he has the ability to drive the ball into gaps, so the more line drives and fewer fly balls for him the better.
It's a big reason why he had such a great 2012 campaign, because while more balls were flying over the fence, perhaps due to some luck, others were finding gaps and rolling to the warning track while he ended up at second. This begs the question, how much impact did not having Kevin Seitzer and his gap-hitting approach around this season have on Butler and nearly every other Royals hitter besides Eric Hosmer have on this season?
Butler is a good baseball player to be sure, but he's 27 and should be peaking at this point of his career, not declining. One bad season, while unfortunate, does happen to good baseball players. But it's imperative that he improve on his line-drive rate and extra-base prowess next season, while also decreasing his hideous ground-ball rate. If Butler can approach his 2012 season, the Royals are a much, much better team because of it. (OK, really like 1 win better, but having Butler rounding the bases under no duress or standing on second 20 times more has some hidden impact that WAR doesn't necessarily account for.)
He wasn't the problem in the Royals putrid offensive season, but considering his role and value to the team, the onus falls appropriately on him being a better player.
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