The 2016 MLB postseason is underway and for the first time since 2013, the Royals are not apart of it. Lame, right?
There's a myriad of reasons as to why that's the case, injuries chief among them. However, the Royals simply weren't good in almost all the areas they were the year before. The offense took a step back, scoring 49 less runs. The run prevention was also much worse, allowing 71 more runs. The bullpen was worse, the defense was much worse and the starting pitching, minus the emergence of Danny Duffy, was also worse.
So, after an 81-81 season and a roster full of players who will be free agents in 2017, the Royals enter the offseason with plenty of questions. Further complicating matters, GM Dayton Moore said in his end-of-season press conference that the team would likely be looking to cut payroll from the record $137-million mark it was at this season.
Given the state of the franchise, I don't see how they can reasonably expect to compete for a championship, which is the stated goal, while also cutting payroll. A rough estimate of arbitration figures among the current roster puts the Royals at $152 million. The Royals can trim $7.6 million from that by non-tendering Dillon Gee ($3.6M), Tim Collins ($1.5M), Daniel Nava ($1.5M) and Tony Cruz ($1.0M).
It's hard to imagine the team doesn't pick up the $10 million club option on Wade Davis or the $6.5 million club option on Alcides Escobar. So factoring in the non-tenders, the Royals' payroll would be around $144 million, assuming no moves at all. No moves at all would be bad. The Royals need starting pitching and likely another bat or two, as alluded to above.
This is where Moore and the front office can get bold and creative. The No. 1 priority this offseason should be signing Duffy to a multi-year extension. After that, it should be trading Davis.
It's hard to project the market for Davis, but there is always demand for top-flight relievers (Brian Sabean on line one) and if the price is anywhere near what was paid for Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at the trade deadline this season, the Royals would be wise to make the move.
Davis has been a huge part of this franchise the past few seasons and is unquestionably one of the biggest reasons the team won back-to-back AL pennants and a World Series. But relievers, no matter how good, almost always have an expiration date. Moore's best attribute thus far as a GM has been his ability to build a bullpen with mostly cheap labor. Which is what made the signing of Joakim Soria (3 years-$24M) so perplexing. The less money a small-market team like the Royals spend on a bullpen the better. It allows them to allocate more resources to starting pitching and positional players, which have a greater impact on success.
Davis is great. But, despite putting up good numbers again in 2016 (1.87 ERA) his peripherals have declined. His strikeout rate has dropped steadily from his ridiculous 13.63 K/9 mark in 2014 all the way to 9.76 K/9 this year. He also walked 3.32 batters per nine, which is a considerable increase from the past two seasons. Never a good recipe. His value isn't at its peak, but it remains high. And the Royals' bullpen remained effective when Davis went down with an injury this season — oh yeah, he also hasn't been a model of health of late either. One way to cut payroll and allow spending on other needs while also potentially boosting the farm system for big-league success beyond 2017, is trading Davis.
The second move I would like to see Moore make is even more unlikely, but even more necessary. The Royals should decline the $6.5 million team option on Escobar.
Escobar has been a staple of the Royals' revival the past 5-6 seasons, shoring up the middle with fantastic defense since he came over in the Zack Grienke trade in 2011. He, however, is currently one of the worst hitters in baseball. Despite hitting a career-high seven home runs this season thanks to an end-of-the year surge, he posted a .642 OPS. His defense, while still above average, has also taken a noticeable step back and the metrics back that up. His baserunning, the one redeeming offensive quality he possesses, was also pedestrian this past year. Such is the reality of an aging middle infielder.
The Royals are clearly high on Raul Mondesi Jr., even if his play hasn't dictated the amount of admiration he appears to garner within the organization. He spent the second half of the season playing second base and while his defense looked good, he was completely overmatched at the plate. Had Mondesi impressed more, this might not even be a conversation. But since he struggled so mightily, it's unlikely the Royals would feel comfortable handing the shortstop job to the 21-year old in what is a critical season for the franchise.
I believe that is exactly what they should do though. Word has come out of the front office that they view Mondesi as their Francisco Lindor. It's hard to see him being that good, but there's definitely some merit to it given his reputation with the glove, switch-hitting ability and surprising power. My plea to the Royals would be this: If you believe in Mondesi to that extent, enough to push him through each level so rapidly, despite the production never necessarily matching the reputation, then why not persist with that strategy? Escobar was essentially a replacement-level shortstop this season. He is 30 years old and has no upside left in him. Can't Mondesi be at least that, with the potential to surprise and be much more?
I think the $6.5 million the Royals save is worth the risk and frees up even more money for other needs on the team if necessary. It also allows Cheslor Cuthbert, who had a solid rookie season filling in for Mike Moustakas at third base, to slide over to second base.
The main concern with both of these moves, especially with this organization, is how it will effect team chemistry. Escobar is certainly a beloved member of this core group, as is Davis. Parting with both in what is presumably the final year all these players will be together could ruffle some feathers in the club house. You know what cures those hurt feelings, though? Winning.
That, above all, has to be the priority. A couple unpopular moves are often required to win championships or to sustain success. And while it would be great if the same core group could continue on winning 90-plus games a year en route to titles, that's not reality.
Standing pat is not an option. Hopefully Moore and his brain trust recognize this.
