In 11 starts this year Greinke has given up 26 ER and the Royals are 2-9 in his starts. Greinke is average almost 7 innings per start, (6.27) that means that on average Greinke is leaving the game after seven innings having given up two ER and the Royals have a .180 winning % in those starts.
The Royals are averaging 2.97 runs per-Greinke start, by far the worst on the Royals (Luke Hochevar with a 5 ERA is receiving 5.81 runs per start) This stat figures how many runs the Royals have scored for Greinke in games that he's started, not how many runs the Royals have scored with Greinke in the game...which believe it or not is much worse. The Royals have twice been shutout when Greinke has been pitching, but four times have not scored a run while Greinke was still in the game.
The Royals have scored 33 runs in 11 Greinke starts as the 2.97 run support that I eluded to before shows. However the Royals have only scored 20 total runs, thats right 20 runs while Greinke was in the game, which was found to be 7 innings, that breaks down to being 1.8 runs. Now to be fair to the offense, sort of, the bullpen blew four of the leads that Greinke held after exiting the game. Which surprisingly enough means had the bullpen been steady (crazy, right?) then the Royals would be 6-5 in Greinke's starts. Which is above .500, but considering what Greinke has done is still quite awful.
Now some may say that the reason for the Royals 2nd-in-the league BA, that we are constantly reminded of, seems to go away in Greinke starts is due to the opposing team's Ace is also on the mound. And for now that's possibly the only reasonable explanation, but I'm not buying it. Sure, it's easier to hit off Barry Zito, than it is Tim Lincecum, but that doesn't mean you can't occasionally get three runs and chase The Freak after 6, which the 1.8 runs suggest the Royals are not anywhere close to achieving.
So, I'll take the skeptic approach and suggest that it has to do with the Royals approach at the plate whenever Greinke is toeing the rubber. Forget a numbers standpoint, the Royals just look like a different team batting. Their approach is sloppy, not working counts, allowing the starter to go on average 6.1 innings a game, which is only that low due to Rockies starter, Aaron Cook getting chased after 4.1 IP and 4 ER. Conveniently Greinke decided to have his worst start of the year and was chased after 3.1 IP and gave up 7 ER.
Perhaps their approach is so relaxed due to what they know they have in Greinke? They know that every time Greinke goes out there it's going to be a low scoring game, where a few big hits will win the game. So the hitters come to the plate with that mentality. The mentality of "I can go 1-5 today and work 10 total pitches, as long as that one hit is a three-run dinger." We've all seen how this approach has worked out. Instead they should be coming to the plate with the mentality of working the count, drawing a walk, or trying to make contact. You know, the approach that every Big League hitter should have.
It's nearly a third of the way through the season, and the Royals have established themselves as pretenders, which I think all Royals fans expected. So trade talk will loom with Jose Guillen and maybe a few other Royals. But the Royals biggest concern right now should be giving their Cy Young a little run-support before the 2007 Greinke makes an ugly return. Do I think that will happen? No. But it wouldn't hurt to ensure that it won't by taking a better approach at the plate and an overall different approach as a team whenever #23 is on the hill.
It could go a long way in 2012 when the Royals are ready to make a run at a World Series..or is it 2014 now, Dayton?
