Why the Royals 7-14 start is worse than you might think
On Wednesday the Royals fell 5-2 to the White Sox to complete a miserable road trip in which they lost seven straight games to the Rangers and White Sox. They are 7-14 and come back home to Kansas City this weekend to close out the month with a three-game series against the Twins.
Now while it should be noted that 7-14 stretches happen over the course of a 162-game season, even to playoff teams, the circumstances surrounding this stretch and what it means in the grand scheme of things exacerbate the slow start.
You see, the Royals don't have 141 games to turn this thing around. They have impending free agents up and down their lineup, a few of whom would be very valuable trade commodities for a team that has a less-than-stellar farm system and will be rebuilding beginning next season.
Thus, the Royals essentially have until the end of June, maybe the second week of July when the All-Star Game occurs, to turn things around and prove they are a contender. Using that metric, they have 67 games left to assert themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.
The most concerning thing, however, is the manner in which the Royals have reached the 7-14 mark. It's not a string of bad luck and close losses. They have a -33 run differential and have a major-league worst 54 runs in 21 games. The Royals, in their current makeup, I'm quite certain are not this bad. I believe it to be a bad month, one in which the offense has been inconceivably bad for a variety of reasons.
Unfortunately, the "it's early" logic doesn't apply to a team like the Royals once the calendar turns to May. The Royals do not have the benefit of a full schedule. With the rest of the American League, particularly the Central's performance also under consideration, the Royals likely need to go something like 40-27 over the next 67 games to avoid a necessary fire sale at the deadline. That would put them at 47-41, with, you would expect, a positive run differential and on the fringes of a playoff spot.
But the worst-case scenario might also be the more likely one. And that's the Royals playing about six or seven games above .500 over the next 67 to have a record of 44-44 or thereabouts. Depending on where that would put the Royals relative to the rest of the AL contenders will obviously be a major factor in how Dayton Moore decides to move forward.
Moore's track record suggests he'll allow this group to make a run at the postseason and even add pieces to shore up weak spots to aid them, because he has the utmost belief in his players. The caveat to that, however, is that he had little choice in 2013 and 2014. He had essentially gone all in ahead of the 2013 season by executing the Wil Myers-James Shields (now Wade Davis) trade. The Royals core was still young and all under contract for three or four more years. It made little sense to sell at the deadline.
In 2014, Moore was in year eight of being in charge and faced a make-or-break season. The Royals limped out of the All-Star break with four consecutive losses to fall to 48-50. Many called for them to blow it up and start over, because this group couldn't get it done. The Process had failed. The one problem with that logic was that blowing it up meant Moore would be in essence handing in his resignation letter to David Glass. He had no choice but to let the team try and work through their struggles and hope they could make a push to the first postseason since 1985. As we know, they got hot and did just that. And they stayed hot all the way to the World Series.
This isn't 2013 or 2014 though. The Royals have big-name free agents at the end of the season in Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Essentially the core of the World Series teams. What will Moore do if the Royals are six games out and hovering around .500 as the deadline nears?
That is the nightmare scenario for this organization, because the worse thing that can happen this season is the Royals falling woefully short of making the postseason having not got any return on their expiring assets. It could set the franchise back at least a couple years.
The far more prudent decision in that circumstance would be for Moore to recognize the slim chances and sell off what valuable assets he can in order to restock the farm system and accelerate the rebuild. But Moore has never faced this particular situation, so how he handles it is anyone's guess.
The Royals, of course, could make things easy on Moore and go on a 43-24 tear or do the opposite and go 30-37 over the next 67. Those are the ideal scenarios.
The 7-14 start, however, complicates things immensely and sets things up for a dicey couple of months for the franchise and its future.
Thursday, April 27, 2017
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Eric Hosmer Conundrum
The Royals lost to the Giants 2-1 in 11 innings on Tuesday in what was the latest episode of futility for the struggling Royals offense. They have scored 39 runs in 13 games for an average of three runs per game. That is bad.
While there's multiple parties to blame for the low output thus far — Alex Gordon has a .513 OPS batting leadoff, Brandon Moss is at .592 as the team's DH, Paulo Orlando has an unthinkable -14 OPS+ and Raul Mondesi has a whopping OPS+ of 2 — the focus of this piece is Eric Hosmer.
To further exacerbate his dreadful start to the 2017 season, Hosmer came up in two critical late-inning spots against the Giants and failed both times. With the bases loaded amid a 1-1 game in the eighth and two outs, Hosmer grounded out to first base.
Facing lefty Steven Okert, Hosmer offered at a first pitch well outside the strike zone to fall behind 0-1. He laid off a similarly wild second pitch to even the count. He then, however, swung violently at the 1-1 offering that was inside, in an attempt to pull the ball. He instead fouled it off and fell behind 1-2.
At this point Okert has thrown three pitches well out of the zone with the bases loaded and the game on the line, yet he's ahead in the count thanks to Hosmer's impatience.
Sensing Hosmer's obvious overzealous approach, Okert threw Hosmer another breaking ball inside in hopes of a big pull swing. He got it and Hosmer grounded out harmlessly to first.
Thanks to some great bullpen work, the Royals again had a great opportunity to win the game, this time in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. Mike Moustakas blooped a one-out single to center and Lorenzo Cain followed by lacing a single to center, putting runners on first and second with one out. Hosmer, the club's cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate again with a chance to win the game.
This time, facing righty Derek Law, Hosmer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. The Giants scored in the top of the 11th and won the game 2-1.
The fact Hosmer failed to deliver in both situations, on balance, isn't incredibly telling or unusual. Baseball players, even the best ones, fail in crucial spots all the time. It's part of the game. What is interesting and incredibly troubling is how predictable the manner in which Hosmer failed, a ground ball to the right side, was.
It's been well documented at this point, but it's perplexing enough that it warrants repeated mentioning: Hosmer, all 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds of him, is a groundball machine. And in his sixth season, at age 27, it isn't getting better; it's getting worse.
Last year Hosmer was second in all of baseball with an astounding 58.9 percent groundball rate. He hit line drives just 16.5 percent of the time and fly balls just 24.7 percent of the time. His GB/FB ratio was 2.38, up from 2.13 in 2015 which was up from 1.61 in 2014. This year his GB/FB ratio is 4.33 and he 63.4 percent of his batted balls in play have been groundballs. As a result, he's hit into a league-high six groundball double plays so far while batting .200/.259/.260.
It's a problem.
I have no doubt Hosmer will find his groove and climb his way back to respectable numbers. But the groundball issue is real and it has perpetuated itself. It is a byproduct of his swing, which he seems hell-bent on sticking with.
Hosmer has no issue generating power with his swing and he hasn't his entire career. His average home-run distance consistently ranks near the very top of the league. The problem is he's topped just 20 home runs once in his career, hitting a career-high 25 last season. Hosmer's average exit velocity this season is a little more than 90 mph, which is above league average. However, per Baseball Savant, Hosmer's launch angle is just under five degrees; the league average is 13 degrees.
It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's on the ground. At best it's a single, at worst, and much more frequently, it's an out. For someone with Hosmer's power, hitting ground balls should be a very rare occurence. Instead, it's the norm.
This poor start by Hosmer is bad for both parties. He's in a contract year and his agent, the all-powerful Scott Boras floated out the $200 million figure soon after Hosmer won the All-Star game MVP last season. Hosmer was in the midst of a decline that hasn't slowed entering the mid-July contest, but his numbers still looked pretty. He was hitting .324/.382/.547 after a June 10 win over the White Sox. From June 11 to the end of the season Hosmer hit .232/.297/.366 to finish with an OPS of .758 and a wRC+ right at league average of 101.
Hosmer isn't getting $200M even with a career-best season, mainly because his best season (.297/.363/.459 in 15) ranks around the middle of the pack for first basemen. Boras will tout Hosmer's winning pedigree, the ASG MVP, his clutch hitting and heroics in the postseason, but the reality is this: Hosmer to date is a light-hitting first baseman with a penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. He's a slightly lesser version than the Giants Brandon Belt, who received 5 years-$72.8M.
If that's where the market settles on Hosmer, then I'm quite certain the Royals would jump at the chance to bring him back. Hosmer though, through Boras' negotiation skills and the propensity for at least one GM being stupid enough to buy a player's perceived star power rather than assessing his actual overall value, likely gets more. The Royals would be very wise to let him walk and reallocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Because unless Hosmer overhauls his swing and takes the path of Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez and others, he is only going to get worse with age.
While there's multiple parties to blame for the low output thus far — Alex Gordon has a .513 OPS batting leadoff, Brandon Moss is at .592 as the team's DH, Paulo Orlando has an unthinkable -14 OPS+ and Raul Mondesi has a whopping OPS+ of 2 — the focus of this piece is Eric Hosmer.
To further exacerbate his dreadful start to the 2017 season, Hosmer came up in two critical late-inning spots against the Giants and failed both times. With the bases loaded amid a 1-1 game in the eighth and two outs, Hosmer grounded out to first base.
Facing lefty Steven Okert, Hosmer offered at a first pitch well outside the strike zone to fall behind 0-1. He laid off a similarly wild second pitch to even the count. He then, however, swung violently at the 1-1 offering that was inside, in an attempt to pull the ball. He instead fouled it off and fell behind 1-2.
At this point Okert has thrown three pitches well out of the zone with the bases loaded and the game on the line, yet he's ahead in the count thanks to Hosmer's impatience.
Sensing Hosmer's obvious overzealous approach, Okert threw Hosmer another breaking ball inside in hopes of a big pull swing. He got it and Hosmer grounded out harmlessly to first.
Thanks to some great bullpen work, the Royals again had a great opportunity to win the game, this time in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. Mike Moustakas blooped a one-out single to center and Lorenzo Cain followed by lacing a single to center, putting runners on first and second with one out. Hosmer, the club's cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate again with a chance to win the game.
This time, facing righty Derek Law, Hosmer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. The Giants scored in the top of the 11th and won the game 2-1.
The fact Hosmer failed to deliver in both situations, on balance, isn't incredibly telling or unusual. Baseball players, even the best ones, fail in crucial spots all the time. It's part of the game. What is interesting and incredibly troubling is how predictable the manner in which Hosmer failed, a ground ball to the right side, was.
It's been well documented at this point, but it's perplexing enough that it warrants repeated mentioning: Hosmer, all 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds of him, is a groundball machine. And in his sixth season, at age 27, it isn't getting better; it's getting worse.
Last year Hosmer was second in all of baseball with an astounding 58.9 percent groundball rate. He hit line drives just 16.5 percent of the time and fly balls just 24.7 percent of the time. His GB/FB ratio was 2.38, up from 2.13 in 2015 which was up from 1.61 in 2014. This year his GB/FB ratio is 4.33 and he 63.4 percent of his batted balls in play have been groundballs. As a result, he's hit into a league-high six groundball double plays so far while batting .200/.259/.260.
It's a problem.
I have no doubt Hosmer will find his groove and climb his way back to respectable numbers. But the groundball issue is real and it has perpetuated itself. It is a byproduct of his swing, which he seems hell-bent on sticking with.
Hosmer has no issue generating power with his swing and he hasn't his entire career. His average home-run distance consistently ranks near the very top of the league. The problem is he's topped just 20 home runs once in his career, hitting a career-high 25 last season. Hosmer's average exit velocity this season is a little more than 90 mph, which is above league average. However, per Baseball Savant, Hosmer's launch angle is just under five degrees; the league average is 13 degrees.
It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's on the ground. At best it's a single, at worst, and much more frequently, it's an out. For someone with Hosmer's power, hitting ground balls should be a very rare occurence. Instead, it's the norm.
This poor start by Hosmer is bad for both parties. He's in a contract year and his agent, the all-powerful Scott Boras floated out the $200 million figure soon after Hosmer won the All-Star game MVP last season. Hosmer was in the midst of a decline that hasn't slowed entering the mid-July contest, but his numbers still looked pretty. He was hitting .324/.382/.547 after a June 10 win over the White Sox. From June 11 to the end of the season Hosmer hit .232/.297/.366 to finish with an OPS of .758 and a wRC+ right at league average of 101.
Hosmer isn't getting $200M even with a career-best season, mainly because his best season (.297/.363/.459 in 15) ranks around the middle of the pack for first basemen. Boras will tout Hosmer's winning pedigree, the ASG MVP, his clutch hitting and heroics in the postseason, but the reality is this: Hosmer to date is a light-hitting first baseman with a penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. He's a slightly lesser version than the Giants Brandon Belt, who received 5 years-$72.8M.
If that's where the market settles on Hosmer, then I'm quite certain the Royals would jump at the chance to bring him back. Hosmer though, through Boras' negotiation skills and the propensity for at least one GM being stupid enough to buy a player's perceived star power rather than assessing his actual overall value, likely gets more. The Royals would be very wise to let him walk and reallocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Because unless Hosmer overhauls his swing and takes the path of Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez and others, he is only going to get worse with age.
Friday, April 14, 2017
Royals Bullpen Issues Real and Fake
The Royals are nine games into the 2017 season and sit at 3-6. And the most discussed topic about the team so far is the bullpen. A unit that has come to define the Royals and their success the past three years has been a weakness through the first week and a half of the season.
The important part of the previous sentence is "first week and a half of the season." While the bullpen issues are no doubt concerning, it's also prudent to acknowledge the fact it could be a blip on the radar in an 162-game season. Lorenzo Cain leads the league in walks with 10 in nine games. Cain's career high for walks in a season is 37. Eric Hosmer has a .473 OPS. See where I'm going with this?
The best part about about the month of April is it means baseball is back. The worst part about the month of April is it means grand observations are formed on the basis of a very small sample of data, because it is the only data we have available at the moment. And media members have a job to discuss what's in front of them and their bosses won't accept "it's really early so I wouldn't worry about it" as an opinion every day of April.
If Hosmer has this stretch of futility at the plate in August while he's hitting .280/.340/.450, it's a lot less noticeable and less worrisome. If the bullpen has the stretch of ineffectiveness it has currently produced, which is a 7.81 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, through nine games in August while ranking as a top-five bullpen on the season, it's deemed a bad stretch, not an indictment of the unit.
None of this is to say the bullpen is fine and you shouldn't worry about it. There's some real concern thus far. It isn't just some string of bad luck. While their xFIP of 5.75 suggests some misfortune, the root of the bullpen's struggles so far is the byproduct of their own control, literally and figuratively. In the three true outcomes, the Royals bullpen is a mess so far. They've walked 7.48 batters per nine, struck out just 6.51 and allowed 1.3 home runs. That's troublesome to say the least.
What's more, the two pitchers who figured to be the Royals top options out of the pen, Matt Strahm and Kelvin Herrera, have been two of the biggest problems. Strahm made three appearances in the first six games and allowed seven runs and four hits while walking six and striking out none in 1.1 innings. He's since been sent down to Omaha to workout his issues.
Herrera, who earned his first save in not-so-smooth fashion against the A's on Thursday, has allowed two runs off three hits in three innings. His biggest issue so far, however, has been his alarming inability to miss bats, a staple of his success the past few years. Two of the three hits he's allowed have been home runs, including one that earned him a blown save in the series finale against Houston. And while he hasn't issued any walks, unlike the rest of the bullpen, he's managed just one strikeout.
I tend to believe Herrera will find his form as there's nothing in his peripherals to suggest a significant drop off just yet. But in my non-expert opinion, Herrera's off-speed pitches are what seem to be lagging. He added a devastating slider to his arsenal last season that made him borderline unfair. A wipeout slider combined with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and an above-average change-up is a lethal combination. His inability to find the same bite on the slider and his inability to locate his change-up so far have caused him to lean heavily on his fastball, which hitters haven't been fooled by very much so far. Even armed with just his fastball, assuming good location, Herrera is still an above-average reliever. The Royals need him to be better than that, so here's to hoping he regains his feel for the secondary pitches.
Travis Wood, who the Royals signed as a free agent has also been very bad. Wood has appeared in five games and has allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking five and striking out just two. Wood's not-so-distant past suggests he's a much better pitcher than that. But walks have always been an issue for Wood and his inability to miss bats last season (6.93 K/9) is making his 2015 season with the Cubs (10.55 K/9) look more like an anomaly.
The Royals best two relievers have been Peter Moylan and Joakim Soria, both of whom have not allowed a run yet in a combined 9 innings of work. Both, however, have not been immune to the base on balls bug that has infected the entire Royals pitching staff. Moylan has issued two free passes and Soria has issued three.
A .429 BABIP against Strahm, a .333 BABIP against Wood suggest both have been unlucky. But neither have helped their own cause with walks and home runs. While it's unrealistic to expect Moylan and Soria to maintain their spotless ERA, it's equally unrealistic to expect Wood, Strahm and Herrera to combine for an ERA north of 20. Strahm and Herrera both possess stuff that's far too good to play above a 3 ERA in the pen.
So where does that leave the bullpen? Will it regain form and establish itself as the dominant force it has been in the recent past? Probably not. The Royals' bullpen run from 2013-2015 is unprecedented in baseball and a large reason why the team has been so hard to peg for advanced analytics folks. But given the track record under GM Dayton Moore, it's fair to think this year's version, given the current options and a few other young arms from the minors (hello Josh Staumont), could find itself near the top of the pack in the AL for bullpens.
If it doesn't and the trend from the first nine games continues, well, the Royals will be sellers at the trade deadline and the rebuild will be underway. Let's hope for the fan base's sake that doesn't come to fruition.
The important part of the previous sentence is "first week and a half of the season." While the bullpen issues are no doubt concerning, it's also prudent to acknowledge the fact it could be a blip on the radar in an 162-game season. Lorenzo Cain leads the league in walks with 10 in nine games. Cain's career high for walks in a season is 37. Eric Hosmer has a .473 OPS. See where I'm going with this?
The best part about about the month of April is it means baseball is back. The worst part about the month of April is it means grand observations are formed on the basis of a very small sample of data, because it is the only data we have available at the moment. And media members have a job to discuss what's in front of them and their bosses won't accept "it's really early so I wouldn't worry about it" as an opinion every day of April.
If Hosmer has this stretch of futility at the plate in August while he's hitting .280/.340/.450, it's a lot less noticeable and less worrisome. If the bullpen has the stretch of ineffectiveness it has currently produced, which is a 7.81 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, through nine games in August while ranking as a top-five bullpen on the season, it's deemed a bad stretch, not an indictment of the unit.
None of this is to say the bullpen is fine and you shouldn't worry about it. There's some real concern thus far. It isn't just some string of bad luck. While their xFIP of 5.75 suggests some misfortune, the root of the bullpen's struggles so far is the byproduct of their own control, literally and figuratively. In the three true outcomes, the Royals bullpen is a mess so far. They've walked 7.48 batters per nine, struck out just 6.51 and allowed 1.3 home runs. That's troublesome to say the least.
What's more, the two pitchers who figured to be the Royals top options out of the pen, Matt Strahm and Kelvin Herrera, have been two of the biggest problems. Strahm made three appearances in the first six games and allowed seven runs and four hits while walking six and striking out none in 1.1 innings. He's since been sent down to Omaha to workout his issues.
Herrera, who earned his first save in not-so-smooth fashion against the A's on Thursday, has allowed two runs off three hits in three innings. His biggest issue so far, however, has been his alarming inability to miss bats, a staple of his success the past few years. Two of the three hits he's allowed have been home runs, including one that earned him a blown save in the series finale against Houston. And while he hasn't issued any walks, unlike the rest of the bullpen, he's managed just one strikeout.
I tend to believe Herrera will find his form as there's nothing in his peripherals to suggest a significant drop off just yet. But in my non-expert opinion, Herrera's off-speed pitches are what seem to be lagging. He added a devastating slider to his arsenal last season that made him borderline unfair. A wipeout slider combined with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and an above-average change-up is a lethal combination. His inability to find the same bite on the slider and his inability to locate his change-up so far have caused him to lean heavily on his fastball, which hitters haven't been fooled by very much so far. Even armed with just his fastball, assuming good location, Herrera is still an above-average reliever. The Royals need him to be better than that, so here's to hoping he regains his feel for the secondary pitches.
Travis Wood, who the Royals signed as a free agent has also been very bad. Wood has appeared in five games and has allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking five and striking out just two. Wood's not-so-distant past suggests he's a much better pitcher than that. But walks have always been an issue for Wood and his inability to miss bats last season (6.93 K/9) is making his 2015 season with the Cubs (10.55 K/9) look more like an anomaly.
The Royals best two relievers have been Peter Moylan and Joakim Soria, both of whom have not allowed a run yet in a combined 9 innings of work. Both, however, have not been immune to the base on balls bug that has infected the entire Royals pitching staff. Moylan has issued two free passes and Soria has issued three.
A .429 BABIP against Strahm, a .333 BABIP against Wood suggest both have been unlucky. But neither have helped their own cause with walks and home runs. While it's unrealistic to expect Moylan and Soria to maintain their spotless ERA, it's equally unrealistic to expect Wood, Strahm and Herrera to combine for an ERA north of 20. Strahm and Herrera both possess stuff that's far too good to play above a 3 ERA in the pen.
So where does that leave the bullpen? Will it regain form and establish itself as the dominant force it has been in the recent past? Probably not. The Royals' bullpen run from 2013-2015 is unprecedented in baseball and a large reason why the team has been so hard to peg for advanced analytics folks. But given the track record under GM Dayton Moore, it's fair to think this year's version, given the current options and a few other young arms from the minors (hello Josh Staumont), could find itself near the top of the pack in the AL for bullpens.
If it doesn't and the trend from the first nine games continues, well, the Royals will be sellers at the trade deadline and the rebuild will be underway. Let's hope for the fan base's sake that doesn't come to fruition.
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