A Royally Bad Start

Why the Royals 7-14 start is worse than you might think

On Wednesday the Royals fell 5-2 to the White Sox to complete a miserable road trip in which they lost seven straight games to the Rangers and White Sox. They are 7-14 and come back home to Kansas City this weekend to close out the month with a three-game series against the Twins.

Now while it should be noted that 7-14 stretches happen over the course of a 162-game season, even to playoff teams, the circumstances surrounding this stretch and what it means in the grand scheme of things exacerbate the slow start.

You see, the Royals don't have 141 games to turn this thing around. They have impending free agents up and down their lineup, a few of whom would be very valuable trade commodities for a team that has a less-than-stellar farm system and will be rebuilding beginning next season.

Thus, the Royals essentially have until the end of June, maybe the second week of July when the All-Star Game occurs, to turn things around and prove they are a contender. Using that metric, they have 67 games left to assert themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.

The most concerning thing, however, is the manner in which the Royals have reached the 7-14 mark. It's not a string of bad luck and close losses. They have a -33 run differential and have a major-league worst 54 runs in 21 games. The Royals, in their current makeup, I'm quite certain are not this bad. I believe it to be a bad month, one in which the offense has been inconceivably bad for a variety of reasons.

Unfortunately, the "it's early" logic doesn't apply to a team like the Royals once the calendar turns to May. The Royals do not have the benefit of a full schedule. With the rest of the American League, particularly the Central's performance also under consideration, the Royals likely need to go something like 40-27 over the next 67 games to avoid a necessary fire sale at the deadline. That would put them at 47-41, with, you would expect, a positive run differential and on the fringes of a playoff spot.

But the worst-case scenario might also be the more likely one. And that's the Royals playing about six or seven games above .500 over the next 67 to have a record of 44-44 or thereabouts. Depending on where that would put the Royals relative to the rest of the AL contenders will obviously be a major factor in how Dayton Moore decides to move forward.

Moore's track record suggests he'll allow this group to make a run at the postseason and even add pieces to shore up weak spots to aid them, because he has the utmost belief in his players. The caveat to that, however, is that he had little choice in 2013 and 2014. He had essentially gone all in ahead of the 2013 season by executing the Wil Myers-James Shields (now Wade Davis) trade. The Royals core was still young and all under contract for three or four more years. It made little sense to sell at the deadline.

In 2014, Moore was in year eight of being in charge and faced a make-or-break season. The Royals limped out of the All-Star break with four consecutive losses to fall to 48-50. Many called for them to blow it up and start over, because this group couldn't get it done. The Process had failed. The one problem with that logic was that blowing it up meant Moore would be in essence handing in his resignation letter to David Glass. He had no choice but to let the team try and work through their struggles and hope they could make a push to the first postseason since 1985. As we know, they got hot and did just that. And they stayed hot all the way to the World Series.

This isn't 2013 or 2014 though. The Royals have big-name free agents at the end of the season in Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Essentially the core of the World Series teams. What will Moore do if the Royals are six games out and hovering around .500 as the deadline nears?

That is the nightmare scenario for this organization, because the worse thing that can happen this season is the Royals falling woefully short of making the postseason having not got any return on their expiring assets. It could set the franchise back at least a couple years.

The far more prudent decision in that circumstance would be for Moore to recognize the slim chances and sell off what valuable assets he can in order to restock the farm system and accelerate the rebuild. But Moore has never faced this particular situation, so how he handles it is anyone's guess.

The Royals, of course, could make things easy on Moore and go on a 43-24 tear or do the opposite and go 30-37 over the next 67. Those are the ideal scenarios.

The 7-14 start, however, complicates things immensely and sets things up for a dicey couple of months for the franchise and its future.