The Royals are nine games into the 2017 season and sit at 3-6. And the most discussed topic about the team so far is the bullpen. A unit that has come to define the Royals and their success the past three years has been a weakness through the first week and a half of the season.
The important part of the previous sentence is "first week and a half of the season." While the bullpen issues are no doubt concerning, it's also prudent to acknowledge the fact it could be a blip on the radar in an 162-game season. Lorenzo Cain leads the league in walks with 10 in nine games. Cain's career high for walks in a season is 37. Eric Hosmer has a .473 OPS. See where I'm going with this?
The best part about about the month of April is it means baseball is back. The worst part about the month of April is it means grand observations are formed on the basis of a very small sample of data, because it is the only data we have available at the moment. And media members have a job to discuss what's in front of them and their bosses won't accept "it's really early so I wouldn't worry about it" as an opinion every day of April.
If Hosmer has this stretch of futility at the plate in August while he's hitting .280/.340/.450, it's a lot less noticeable and less worrisome. If the bullpen has the stretch of ineffectiveness it has currently produced, which is a 7.81 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, through nine games in August while ranking as a top-five bullpen on the season, it's deemed a bad stretch, not an indictment of the unit.
None of this is to say the bullpen is fine and you shouldn't worry about it. There's some real concern thus far. It isn't just some string of bad luck. While their xFIP of 5.75 suggests some misfortune, the root of the bullpen's struggles so far is the byproduct of their own control, literally and figuratively. In the three true outcomes, the Royals bullpen is a mess so far. They've walked 7.48 batters per nine, struck out just 6.51 and allowed 1.3 home runs. That's troublesome to say the least.
What's more, the two pitchers who figured to be the Royals top options out of the pen, Matt Strahm and Kelvin Herrera, have been two of the biggest problems. Strahm made three appearances in the first six games and allowed seven runs and four hits while walking six and striking out none in 1.1 innings. He's since been sent down to Omaha to workout his issues.
Herrera, who earned his first save in not-so-smooth fashion against the A's on Thursday, has allowed two runs off three hits in three innings. His biggest issue so far, however, has been his alarming inability to miss bats, a staple of his success the past few years. Two of the three hits he's allowed have been home runs, including one that earned him a blown save in the series finale against Houston. And while he hasn't issued any walks, unlike the rest of the bullpen, he's managed just one strikeout.
I tend to believe Herrera will find his form as there's nothing in his peripherals to suggest a significant drop off just yet. But in my non-expert opinion, Herrera's off-speed pitches are what seem to be lagging. He added a devastating slider to his arsenal last season that made him borderline unfair. A wipeout slider combined with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and an above-average change-up is a lethal combination. His inability to find the same bite on the slider and his inability to locate his change-up so far have caused him to lean heavily on his fastball, which hitters haven't been fooled by very much so far. Even armed with just his fastball, assuming good location, Herrera is still an above-average reliever. The Royals need him to be better than that, so here's to hoping he regains his feel for the secondary pitches.
Travis Wood, who the Royals signed as a free agent has also been very bad. Wood has appeared in five games and has allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking five and striking out just two. Wood's not-so-distant past suggests he's a much better pitcher than that. But walks have always been an issue for Wood and his inability to miss bats last season (6.93 K/9) is making his 2015 season with the Cubs (10.55 K/9) look more like an anomaly.
The Royals best two relievers have been Peter Moylan and Joakim Soria, both of whom have not allowed a run yet in a combined 9 innings of work. Both, however, have not been immune to the base on balls bug that has infected the entire Royals pitching staff. Moylan has issued two free passes and Soria has issued three.
A .429 BABIP against Strahm, a .333 BABIP against Wood suggest both have been unlucky. But neither have helped their own cause with walks and home runs. While it's unrealistic to expect Moylan and Soria to maintain their spotless ERA, it's equally unrealistic to expect Wood, Strahm and Herrera to combine for an ERA north of 20. Strahm and Herrera both possess stuff that's far too good to play above a 3 ERA in the pen.
So where does that leave the bullpen? Will it regain form and establish itself as the dominant force it has been in the recent past? Probably not. The Royals' bullpen run from 2013-2015 is unprecedented in baseball and a large reason why the team has been so hard to peg for advanced analytics folks. But given the track record under GM Dayton Moore, it's fair to think this year's version, given the current options and a few other young arms from the minors (hello Josh Staumont), could find itself near the top of the pack in the AL for bullpens.
If it doesn't and the trend from the first nine games continues, well, the Royals will be sellers at the trade deadline and the rebuild will be underway. Let's hope for the fan base's sake that doesn't come to fruition.
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