As the Kansas City Royals returned to action this past weekend against the Twins after a peculiar two-games-in-five-days start to the season, I'd like to delve into the age-old game of critiquing Ned Yost's lineup. Pardon me, that's World Series Champion Manager Ned Yost.
It's true, criticizing anything about the Royals these days seems a bit like malpractice, given the overwhelming success the organization has had the past two seasons. However, that doesn't mean they are beyond reproach. Yost especially.
The seasoned manager has done some things I've really liked over the past couple years and I think he's really grown into the role. He's adapted, especially in the postseason, the way he goes about his decision-making process in many regards. Though history will forget his numerous errors and recognize him as the guy who helped transform baseball's doormat into a model franchise of sorts. But the entire Royals fan base had him fired midway through the 2014 Wild Card game and, perhaps, for justifiable reasons.
Yost has never been particularly adept at the skill of in-game managing, but he's always been revered for his ability to mold together a club house and it's hard to argue his style hasn't been beneficial to this team. But, that's neither here nor there.
I'm here to assess his 2016 linuep. Which, for now, is as follows:
1) Alcides Escobar
2) Mike Moustakas
3) Lorenzo Cain
4) Eric Hosmer
5) Kendrys Morales
6) Alex Gordon
7) Sal Perez
8) Omar Infante
9) Raymond Fuentes
This is the second year in a row that Yost has convinced himself Escobar is a different hitter at the top of the order. And that belief is rooted in Escobar's postseason success at the leadoff spot, which is real, as he hit .329/.347/.514 in last year's playoffs, including a .478/.481/.652 line against Toronto which earned him ALCS MVP. But it's also an extremely small sample size. Without getting off track too much and dissecting the imposible theory of whether certain players are more "clutch" than others, it's certainly not disputable that Escobar has been a much better hitter in the postesason than in the regular season where he is a career .300 OBP guy.
That sort of thing can be hidden in 15-20 games if a player gets hot. It can't be in a 162-game season. Escobar is 29. He is who he is at this point in his career. Over the course of a full season, the Royals are a better team if he is receiving less plate appearances than say, Alex Gordon, a career .350 OBP guy who is coming off a career-high .377 OBP season last year, yet is once again slotted in the six hole. The Royals are a better team if Gordon is receiving the 30 or so plate appearance he loses from being so far down in the lineup.
Moustakas, slotted once again in the two hole to begin the season, is also an ill-advised decision. Though it was more head-scratching last season, given the fact Moustakas was nearly a lost cause at the plate as a big leaguer, with his best season coming as a rookie in 2011 when he hit .263/.309/.367. To his credit, Moustakas, almost remarkably, completely retooled his swing and his approach at the plate to destroy the shift to the tune of .356/.420/.522 the first month of the season. He cooled off in ensuing months and eventually was relegated back to the six hole in the lineup, but he went on to post, by far, the best season of his career with a .284/.348/.470 line.
Moustakas turning into a revelation at the plate was a huge reason why the Royals were so good last season. And there are certainly more egregious choices than slotting him second in the lineup. However, it's fair to expect him to be a tick off his 2015 campaign, especially in the on-base department, given how drastic an improvement it was from his career averages where he remains a .300 OPB hitter.
The Royals' most optimal lineup, to me, looks something like this (career averages included):
1) Gordon .268/.348/.434
2) Cain .286/.336./.417
3) Hosmer .280/.337/.427
4) Morales .274/.330/.465
5) Moustakas .247/.303/.401
6) Perez .278/.306/.431
7) Colon/Infante .303/.365/.381 ... .272/.309/.388
8) Fuentes/Dyson .255/.320/.343
9) Escobar .262/.298/.344
It's minor changes, of course. And even if it operated at optimal form, it's worth maybe two wins on the season. But two wins is two wins. Despite the success the past three years, the Royals' lineup had been below average until last season. Cain has turned into a fascinating player — always a defensive gem who has suddenly found himself at the plate and turned into one of the game's best players. He is, for now, the Royals best player and hitter and should be slotted accordingly in the two hole. Gordon, one of the few anomalies on a team who strikes out so rarely, has a propensity to whiff far more often than his teammates while also drawing more walks, making him an ideal leadoff guy for this club.
Power is appropriately placed in the middle of the order while an interesting mixture rounds out the bottom third of the order with good OBP (FREE COLON) and speed resides.
This is all a moot point, however. The Royals, and Ned Yost specifically, believe they have a magic formula with Escobar leading off. And though it makes zero sense analytically, it has been conducive to success in where it matters most: in the postseason. But you have to get to the postseason in order to deploy the strategy and a better lineup construction would aid that.
As was the case last season, I fully expect the necessary changes to be made in June or July. So for now, enjoy the free-swinging spectacle to start off Royals games.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Grand Missteps: Daryl Morey and the Rockets
After Wednesday's narrow defeat at Dallas the Houston Rockets are a full game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The 88-86 loss to the Mavericks was the latest disappointment in a season that's been full of them. The Rockets (38-40) trail the Utah Jazz (39-39) by a game in the standings with four left to play.
They have more than a puncher's chance to sneak in to the final slot, with their final four games against cellar dwellers in the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings, while the Jazz and Mavericks square off against each other in the penultimate game of the season. The Jazz also host the Clippers and have a road test at Denver.
All of that, however, is backdrop, while larger questiond about this Rockets' season loom, including: what happened? This is virtually the same team that went 56-26 last season and reached the conference finals. To go from that to this — a dysfunctional group of misfit toys on the brink of missing the postseason in a year where the Western Conference is as mediocre as its been in a decade — is perplexing.
On the surface, James Harden has followed up the best season of his career with an equally impressive 2015-16 campaign. The numbers (28.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 6.3 rpg.) are actually up from last year and his 25.05 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is just a tick off his 26.76 pace last year. However, if you've watched the Rockets this season, you know that's not close to true. Harden's played great the second half of the season, but it was what he did the first few weeks of the season that set the tone for this year. He was in the news during the offseason for activities not related to basketball, namely, his involvement with the least-desirable Kardashian. And he showed up to camp overweight. Say what you will about his private life (though dating a Kardashian is a documented terrible idea for any athlete), but when the team's star player shows up to camp out of shape and overweight, that's never a good sign.
The Rockets, unsurprisingly, stumbled out of the gates and got off to an 4-7 start. Kevin McHale took the fall for the poor start and was fired; never mind the fact Harden was atrocious during the lackluster start to the season while he tried to play his way into shape J.B. Bickerstaff took over, to the delight of Harden, who undoubtedly played a large role in McHale's firing, and the team has more or less been the same in the 67 games that have followed.
I'm not going to use this space to try and delve into what has ailed the Rockets this year. It's really been a combination of things. Dwight Howard is no longer a premier big man in a league that has slowly gravitated away from the low-post game. His defensive prowess is mitigated when team's go to the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that includes stretch 5's, dragging him out to an uncomfortable space on the perimeter. Plus, he's not nearly the same rebounder he used to be and is almost unplayable down the stretch due to is abysmal free-throw shooting. He and Harden found glimpses of synergy last season and it resulted in some wonderful pick-and-roll combinations, which helped fuel the playoff run. But neither has been on the same page this season. Josh Smith hasn't provided the same ineffable boost this season. Terrence Jones, who at times looked like he was coming into his own as a quality power forward last season, has been a disaster this year and has seen his minutes decrease in favor of Clint Capela. Sadly, one of the main positives of the year has been the pleasant surprise of Michael Beasley on the offensive end — though he still hasn't fully grasped the evolving analytics of how stupid taking 20-foot twos are, but I digress.
None of that of course matters much. What matters is this team has been a lost cause, for this season anyway, since late January and the inability of GM Daryl Morey to realize this has set the franchise back. It was quite obvious whatever magic the team had captured last year was not going to suddenly manifest itself in 2015-16, so with Howard's impending free agency, it would've been prudent to blow it up at the trade deadline.
It's true, the Rockets wouldn't have gotten a great haul for Howard, but moving him went beyond acquiring assets. Fair or unfair, there's very little to gain for a team like the Rockets from sneaking into the eight spot of the playoffs and much to lose from finishing ninth or 10th. This is not a young team trying to mold itself into a title contender, taking baby steps along the way. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Outside of Harden, whose 26, it's an aging and declining roster that can point to who else as a young building block? Capela?
This "playoff hunt" masks the fact the Rockets face an unstable and uncertain future. Harden, under contract through 2019, has to be the star to build around. And despite how unappealing that sounds, given what's occurred this season, he is still unquestionably one of the ten best players in the league and you have to have at least one of "those guys" if you aspire to win a title. The problem, however, is the short list of players who appear to want to play with him. Morey has a proven track record of swinging for the fences in free agency. It's unclear though who he'd be able to bring in to pair alongside Harden.
Thus, the focus might have to be the draft.
Trading Howard and perhaps Ariza at the deadline would've served twofold. It brought back assets and provided a chance to see what the team looks like with Harden as the absolute focal point with perhaps some young players around him. If it didn't work out, it also quietly served as a silent tanking mechanism that would've allowed the team to sneak up the draft board to add a much-needed young building block. The Pelicans, who admittedly got off to a much worse start than the Rockets, identified the season as a lost cause at the appropriate time and have rested, err, been blessed with injuries to key cogs like Anthony Davis the final couple months of the season allowing them to vault up the draft lottery.
Morey and the Rockets would've been wise to employ the same tactic. But instead they fooled themselves into believing this core would recapture last season's form and make it into the playoffs with a real shot to make a run. That's not a strategy, it's hope. And you don't win championships based off hope. Morey, an accomplished GM with a keen eye for analytics, should know this better than anyone.
His inaction at the deadline undermined his own long-term goals for this franchise and it complicated the rebuilding efforts going forward. The Rockets will pick in the bottom part of the lottery at best where they're unlikely to find a difference maker — though Tyler Ullis is an interesting option at point guard. It's a far cry from where they were at this point last season and the fall has no doubt been swift.
Morey and Harden carry the most responsibility, thus bear the most blame. The ramifications from this year will extend well beyond next year and both are culpable in what has proven to be a disastrous season.
They have more than a puncher's chance to sneak in to the final slot, with their final four games against cellar dwellers in the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings, while the Jazz and Mavericks square off against each other in the penultimate game of the season. The Jazz also host the Clippers and have a road test at Denver.
All of that, however, is backdrop, while larger questiond about this Rockets' season loom, including: what happened? This is virtually the same team that went 56-26 last season and reached the conference finals. To go from that to this — a dysfunctional group of misfit toys on the brink of missing the postseason in a year where the Western Conference is as mediocre as its been in a decade — is perplexing.
On the surface, James Harden has followed up the best season of his career with an equally impressive 2015-16 campaign. The numbers (28.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 6.3 rpg.) are actually up from last year and his 25.05 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is just a tick off his 26.76 pace last year. However, if you've watched the Rockets this season, you know that's not close to true. Harden's played great the second half of the season, but it was what he did the first few weeks of the season that set the tone for this year. He was in the news during the offseason for activities not related to basketball, namely, his involvement with the least-desirable Kardashian. And he showed up to camp overweight. Say what you will about his private life (though dating a Kardashian is a documented terrible idea for any athlete), but when the team's star player shows up to camp out of shape and overweight, that's never a good sign.
The Rockets, unsurprisingly, stumbled out of the gates and got off to an 4-7 start. Kevin McHale took the fall for the poor start and was fired; never mind the fact Harden was atrocious during the lackluster start to the season while he tried to play his way into shape J.B. Bickerstaff took over, to the delight of Harden, who undoubtedly played a large role in McHale's firing, and the team has more or less been the same in the 67 games that have followed.
I'm not going to use this space to try and delve into what has ailed the Rockets this year. It's really been a combination of things. Dwight Howard is no longer a premier big man in a league that has slowly gravitated away from the low-post game. His defensive prowess is mitigated when team's go to the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that includes stretch 5's, dragging him out to an uncomfortable space on the perimeter. Plus, he's not nearly the same rebounder he used to be and is almost unplayable down the stretch due to is abysmal free-throw shooting. He and Harden found glimpses of synergy last season and it resulted in some wonderful pick-and-roll combinations, which helped fuel the playoff run. But neither has been on the same page this season. Josh Smith hasn't provided the same ineffable boost this season. Terrence Jones, who at times looked like he was coming into his own as a quality power forward last season, has been a disaster this year and has seen his minutes decrease in favor of Clint Capela. Sadly, one of the main positives of the year has been the pleasant surprise of Michael Beasley on the offensive end — though he still hasn't fully grasped the evolving analytics of how stupid taking 20-foot twos are, but I digress.
None of that of course matters much. What matters is this team has been a lost cause, for this season anyway, since late January and the inability of GM Daryl Morey to realize this has set the franchise back. It was quite obvious whatever magic the team had captured last year was not going to suddenly manifest itself in 2015-16, so with Howard's impending free agency, it would've been prudent to blow it up at the trade deadline.
It's true, the Rockets wouldn't have gotten a great haul for Howard, but moving him went beyond acquiring assets. Fair or unfair, there's very little to gain for a team like the Rockets from sneaking into the eight spot of the playoffs and much to lose from finishing ninth or 10th. This is not a young team trying to mold itself into a title contender, taking baby steps along the way. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Outside of Harden, whose 26, it's an aging and declining roster that can point to who else as a young building block? Capela?
This "playoff hunt" masks the fact the Rockets face an unstable and uncertain future. Harden, under contract through 2019, has to be the star to build around. And despite how unappealing that sounds, given what's occurred this season, he is still unquestionably one of the ten best players in the league and you have to have at least one of "those guys" if you aspire to win a title. The problem, however, is the short list of players who appear to want to play with him. Morey has a proven track record of swinging for the fences in free agency. It's unclear though who he'd be able to bring in to pair alongside Harden.
Thus, the focus might have to be the draft.
Trading Howard and perhaps Ariza at the deadline would've served twofold. It brought back assets and provided a chance to see what the team looks like with Harden as the absolute focal point with perhaps some young players around him. If it didn't work out, it also quietly served as a silent tanking mechanism that would've allowed the team to sneak up the draft board to add a much-needed young building block. The Pelicans, who admittedly got off to a much worse start than the Rockets, identified the season as a lost cause at the appropriate time and have rested, err, been blessed with injuries to key cogs like Anthony Davis the final couple months of the season allowing them to vault up the draft lottery.
Morey and the Rockets would've been wise to employ the same tactic. But instead they fooled themselves into believing this core would recapture last season's form and make it into the playoffs with a real shot to make a run. That's not a strategy, it's hope. And you don't win championships based off hope. Morey, an accomplished GM with a keen eye for analytics, should know this better than anyone.
His inaction at the deadline undermined his own long-term goals for this franchise and it complicated the rebuilding efforts going forward. The Rockets will pick in the bottom part of the lottery at best where they're unlikely to find a difference maker — though Tyler Ullis is an interesting option at point guard. It's a far cry from where they were at this point last season and the fall has no doubt been swift.
Morey and Harden carry the most responsibility, thus bear the most blame. The ramifications from this year will extend well beyond next year and both are culpable in what has proven to be a disastrous season.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Sweet Home Chicago
As I gaze upon Lake Michigan from my apartment in downtown Chicago, I'm filled with insatiable ambition and also a little trepidation.
Such is the juxtaposition of emotion when taking a leap of faith in life, I suppose. I've lived in small towns my entire life and I'm coming from the smallest town I've ever lived in, Carroll, Iowa — just over 10,000 people — to the fourth-biggest city in the country. A booming metropolitan whose watery boarder accentuates its allure. And I came here to continue my pursuit of a dream.
I want to be a prominent sportswriter in a city where it matters. Sports are king in Chicago. The greatest basketball player of all time did it here. Baseball's lovable losers play here; and they are on the brink of greatness. The hockey team is in the midst of a mini dynasty. And I'm likely only one of a couple thousand who care that there's also a professional soccer team here. This city is full of opportunity for anyone, but especially for someone in my field.
Since the first time I visited here as a middle schooler with my family, I've been intrigued by it. I came here twice in college, the second time as a senior on my fraternity's semi-formal, and that was the moment I decided I wanted to live here. I loved everything about the city, minus the unrelenting winter.
Freelancing for the Chicago Tribune won't occupy the amount of time my writing-centric life desires, so I hope to further utilize this space as a means of sharing thoughts on my journey here, but also to provide some insight and analysis on the Chicago sports scene as a I continue to entrench myself in it.
Until next time, cheers.
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