- Traded RP Wade Davis to the Cubs OF for Jorge Soler
- Traded OF Jarrod Dyson to the Mariners for SP Nathan Karns
- Signed LHP Danny Duffy to five-year contract
- Signed 1B/OF Brandon Moss to a two-year contract
- Signed RHP Jason Hammel to a two-year contract
All in all, nothing flashy, but a lot of important moves that do move the needle in the right direction for the Royals in 2017, while also improving the team's chances for contention beyond this season. The most recent transaction, the signing of Jason Hammel, was, unfortunately, necessitated by the tragic death of Yordano Ventura.
Before I delve into what the Royals have done this offseason, I'd like to give a few thoughts on Ventura. By now, most baseball fans have read his story and how he was signed as a tiny 14-year old out of the Dominican Republic for $28,000 because he showed an unusually live arm for someone of that stature.
As he matured physically, his arm did as well, and despite being just six feet tall and 160 pounds soaking wet, he touched 100 MPH on the radar gun while also flashing a devastating breaking ball. I remember first hearing about Ventura back in 2012 when I lived in Springfield, Mo. and thinking that I had to go watch him pitch if he was on the mound when the AA Northwest Arkansas team made its way to town to play the Cardinals' AA affiliate. While that never transpired, the following year, as his star shined brighter and he advanced to AAA Omaha, I was just an hour-and-a-half drive away in Carroll, Iowa and made sure to go see him pitch.
My friend Jack and I got tickets about six rows up along the third-base line. To this day I can't recall watching a more amazing spectacle on the baseball diamond than someone that size — smaller than me — throwing a baseball that fast. His talent was undeniable. As a fan of baseball I was excited. As a Royals fan, I was elated. Ventura, if memory serves me, had a modest performance that evening and only went six innings while allowing a couple runs, but my buddy and I left convinced he was going to be a star. He was the ace the Royals staff had been missing.
Frankly, that never materialized. When Ventura first came up in 2014, he dazzled fans with how foolish he often made batters look. His swagger on the mound was infectious; it reminded me of Pedro in his prime. That year was Ventura's best season in terms of ERA, as he posted a 3.20 in 183 innings. He had an unforgettable performance in Game 6 of the World Series against the Giants while honoring his fellow countryman Oscar Taveras who died in a car accident in the D.R.; the dramatic irony of that moment now is enough to make you queasy. The next two years were filled with inconsistent performance and much-publicized on-field drama. The way Ventura carried himself rubbed people (old white male media members usually) and some opponents the wrong way.
I'll never forget several prominent local and national media members suggesting the Royals should trade Ventura after his brush up with Manny Machado early last season. While his extra-curricular actions on the field annoyed me at times, it never affected the way I viewed him as a player and an asset for the Royals. He signed an incredibly team-friendly deal (5 years-$23M) after the 2014 season. He oozed with talent and, on the surface, he just seemed like a emotional kid who got caught up in the passion of the game at times. I never wanted to see him shipped out of KC, however. He had too much potential and cost too little for a franchise that had very little in the way of starting pitching.
I'm left feeling both sad and incredibly shortchanged when it comes to Ventura's passing. It was an avoidable accident, one that's occurred to baseball stars far too often in recent months. Ventura always showed flashes of putting it all together as a pitcher and as a person. He, by all accounts, was a good kid who was just a little immature. He could've been a likable and mercurial star in the league for years to come. Instead, he's gone far too soon. And baseball and myself will miss him.
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Taking a sharp left turn from that, the Royals had to move on and worry about the product on the field for 2017. They did that by signing the best available starting pitcher in free agency in Jason Hammel. Hammel doesn't possess Ventura's talent or his upside, but he did come close to replicating Ventura's production on the mound the past two seasons. At least for 2017, he was a necessary addition that helps shore up the starting rotation.
Rewinding back to December in the most significant move of the Royals offseason, they traded star closer Wade Davis to the Cubs for 24-year old outfielder Jorge Soler. This was a move I advocated for at the end of last season. It wasn't an original thought process, but it also wasn't a popular notion to ship off Davis, a beloved member of the most successful Royals teams in a generation. I won't rehash much of what I wrote, but it made a lot of sense to trade one year of Davis, a declining reliever, for four years of club control on Soler, whose upside is very intriguing. It also wasn't a tough decision for the Cubs, who had no place for Soler in a crowded outfield. Soler's outfield defense will be a major question mark in the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium. He could, however, very well end up being the best power hitter on the team with a chance to OPS above .800, which would be a boon to a declining offense.
The Royals next move also made a lot of sense. They traded Jarrod Dyson, a fan and clubhouse favorite who had just one year left on his deal, for five years of Nathan Karns, a starting pitcher whose overall numbers don't impress, but his ability to miss bats (9.64 K/9 in 2016) do. Karns could become a mainstay in the rotation for the next few years at a very reasonable price and he has the upside of a No. 3 starter. Dyson, who is a fantastic defensive outfielder and incredible base runner that hits reasonably well against lefties, was never viewed as an everyday player for the Royals and his two biggest traits, speed and defense, are at risk as he enters his age 33 season.
The Royals signing/extending Danny Duffy was No. 1 on my list for offseason priorities. Duffy turned the corner in 2016 by, for lack of a better explanation, figuring out that if he consistently throws strikes he's really hard to hit. Duffy raised his K/9 significantly to where he profiles near the top of the league and cut down significantly on his walks. He certainly fits the profile of past star left-handed pitchers who all of the sudden figured it out in their late 20's. Duffy has a great fastball and above-average secondary pitches. He has the capability of being an ace and one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball and the Royals signed him for 5 years-$65M. For reference, had he replicated his performance from last season in 2017, he would've been looking at Jon Lester money in the form of 6 years-$155M. I can't commend Dayton Moore enough for getting this deal done.
The last piece of the puzzle, it would appear, was signing Brandon Moss. The Royals quite obviously needed to add another bat and, preferably, a lefty. What do you know? Moss fits both of those requisites. Moss doesn't fit the mold of the Royals hitter we've become accustomed to in recent years in that he strikes out a lot, but also walks at an above average rate, and hits for good power. Moss provides a lot of flexibility as well in that he can play the outfield and first base adequately, but he will most likely be featured as the team's DH, though club officials claim that will be a rotating spot. Moss is on a 2-year, $12 million deal with a team option in year two. In other words, there's zero risk for the Royals here and lots of upside. Moss was a three-win player last year for the Cardinals and Fangraphs Steamer projects him as a two-win player in 2017. He's an upgrade over Kendrys Morales for more than half the cost. Well done, Dayton.
As I'm sure it's obvious, I'm a big fan of the Royals' offseason. They addressed virtually every need heading into 2017 while also making some prudent moves for beyond that. That, however, doesn't guarantee success. In fact, PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus' projection model) projects the Royals to be 71-91, the second-worst team in baseball. PECOTA has consistently bought low on the Royals during the past few years due, mainly, to its ineffectiveness at measuring team defense and bullpens, both of which the Royals have been superb in the past three years.
I'll breakdown the Royals 2017 season closer to opening day, but I will most certainly be taking the over on 71 wins. The offseason by Dayton Moore has gone a long way toward providing optimism for Royals fans.
