Thanks to a 22-10 stretch that began in June, the Royals (44-43) are right back in the thick of the American League playoff race. They are three games behind the Indians (47-40) in the Central and just a 1 1/2 behind the Rays for the second wild card spot at the All-Star Break.
The Royals begin the second half with a 10-game home stand beginning Friday with an important three-game series at Kauffman Stadium against a fellow wild-card contender in the Rangers. Ahead of that, I have five bold predictions for the Royals' second half.
1) Alex Gordon Will Have a Big Second Half
It's no secret, the team's franchise player, fan favorite, and most expensive salary on the roster has been a bust in the first year-and-a-half of his four-year contract. While the rest of the Royals' core is performing fairly well (Lorenzo Cain 2.7 bWAR; Eric Hosmer 2.2 bWAR; Sal Perez 1.9 bWAR; Mike Moustakas 1.3 bWAR) Gordon has been one of the worst hitters in baseball through the first half, posting just a .592 OPS. He has, however, maintained his excellent defense in left field, which like Alcides Escobar, has made him somewhat playable.
Call me stubborn, but I refuse to believe Gordon has fallen off a cliff offensively at age 33. Gordon hit .184/.268/.218 in April and .164/.307/.192 in May. The best explanation for that dreadful production was his sudden propensity to hit the ball on the ground. He had a 53.2 percent groundball rate to that point; by far the highest of his career. Gordon has provided some reason for optimism since. While he's still not seeing his batting average improve (.195 for the season) he's hit for more pop lately, as he had a .731 OPS in June. Look no further than his lowered groundball rate, which now sits at 44.8 percent. Still a career high, but much closer in line with his career performance.
Despite cutting down on his groundball rate, his BABIP still remains incredibly low at .234. Some of that is bad luck, while some of it is still his awful early-season performance baked in. Gordon is still walking at a decent rate (9%) and he's cut down on his strikeouts significantly from last season.
The All-Star break is a chance for players to step away from the game mentally and physically to recharge their batteries and prepare for the dog days of summer with what feels like a clean slate. Gordon feels like the guy who could benefit the most from this and he carried some positive momentum into the break. Gordon has too much of a track record and has too many core (literally and figuratively-- ABS BABY!) abilities to be mired in failure. I expect to see a big second half from A1, which would obviously be incredibly beneficial for the Royals.
2) Jorge Soler Will Make a Positive Impact
The Wade Davis-for-Jorge Soler trade has been harshly criticized through the first half of the season. Davis has been back to his old self as a reliever while Soler spent the better part of the first half in AAA and hasn't hit when he's been up with the big club. The disappointment of Soler has been largely cancelled out by the surprise emergence of Jorge Bonifacio, who has a .770 OPS and has performed admirably at the top of the lineup. Soler has a .537 OPS but that's in just 99 plate appearances. Three seasons ago as a 22-year old rookie for the Cubs, in 97 plate appearances he had a .903 OPS. Suffice to say, the real Soler lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Because of Bonifacio's steady play, Soler has been reduced to a platoon player, which isn't where many saw him before the season, but it doesn't mean he can't still be valuable.
If used properly, Soler should garner somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 plate appearances this season. He can be used at DH, Brandon Moss isn't hitting either. He can spell Bonifacio and he can give Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain time off in the outfield; they both will need it. And he can be a dangerous bat off the bench in late-game situations. For all the Royals have been good at over the course of this four-year run, they've never had a power bat like Soler on the bench. A guy who can change the game with one swing, but also posesses the plate discipline to draw a walk. It's year one of what will likely be four years for Soler in Kansas City and so far he's underwhelmed. That doesn't mean he can't add significant value the rest of the way as he finds his role. I'm betting he provides a few more smiles for fans the second half of the season.
3) Dayton Moore will make a significant trade
OK, this one isn't exactly a bold stance. Obviously, Moore will add a piece, or two, to this roster. Most likely in the form of a starting pitcher and reliever, but another bat could be necessary as well. Moore doesn't have the farm system to pull off a Johnny Cueto or Ben Zobrist-type deal, unless he's willing to part ways with Raul Mondesi, which by all indications, he is not. I predict what the Royals add will fall somewhere in between their 2014 (Jason Frasor and Josh WIlmington) and 2015 acquisitions. While some would suggest waiting until the next couple weeks play out, I think the Royals have proven themselves a contender in a muddled AL race. Thus, the sooner a play is made for an impact player, the better off the team will be. I'd look for Moore to get something significant done within the next week.
4) Jason Vargas will regress to the mean
Not everything on this list can be positive. And this one isn't exactly a bold prediction either. Vargas has pitched well above his career norms this season and there's very little in the way of peripheral evidence to backup what he's doing. If Vargas is nothing more than what he's been his whole career for the rest of the season, he'll still be worth roughly three wins to the Royals, which is incredibly valuable. Vargas has been worth two wins already by fWAR and has a 2.62 ERA despite just a 6.60 strikeout rate and 2.12 walk rate. Neither of which, by the way, is unusual compared to the rest of his career. The 2.62 ERA, however, is. His xFIP labels him with a 4.77 ERA, much more in line with his career norms. Thus, it is highly likely he will not maintain his low ERA throughout the course of the season. However, there is something to the type of weak contact Vargas seems to be able to induce. He can't keep his sub-3 ERA with his K/BB ratio, but he can remain an extremely valuable starter for the Royals.
5) Kelvin Herrera will regain cyborg status
Of everything that has occurred this season, Kelvin Herrera being bad is by far the strangest development. If you asked me before the season if I had a choice of keeping one out of Wade Davis, Greg Holland or Herrera, I would've chosen Herrera. Despite the fact he's the cheapest of the three, he'd also been the best of the three most recently and the most reliable, as both Davis and Holland had obvious red flags injury wise. From the jump this season, Herrera's strikeout rate was a concern. While it's improved over the past month, he simply wasn't missing bats because of his inability to locate his offspeed pitches. He throws 98-100 MPH, but when a professional hitter knows a fastball is coming, they're going to hit it and hit it hard. That was the first two months of Herrera's season, in summary.
He seems to have figured out whatever was plaguing his changeup early on in the season, though the devastating slider he debuted last season is still MIA. Essentially, he's reverted back to the 2013 version of himself, which was a HR/FB disaster, with less ability to miss bats. Herrera, however, has been better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate. He has an xFIP of 3.80 and his 2.99 BABIP is currently a career high. He still possesses way above average stuff and has shown signs of putting it all together as the Royals entered the break. I'd expect for him to return to form, albeit not 2014-15 form when he just stopped giving up home runs and struck out everyone, but something that somewhat resembles that.
