On the Royals and Opportunity

It's Aug. 16 and as I sit here and type this, the Royals are 63-57 and just took the first game of a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers as Danny Duffy out-dueled Justin Verlander.

That's a weird sentence to type.

The last month has been weird to process.

Forget the fact the Royals were 43-49 at the All-Star break and I, as well as most fans, wanted and expected the team to be sellers. General Manager Dayton Moore blasphemously said the team was still a contender and they could come out of the break and win 15 out of 20 and be right back in the race. He was rightfully mocked. 15 out of 20 isn't easily done by any team, and the Royals have never accomplished that feat under Moore's seven-year watch. So of course, they didn't achieve that outlandish feat.

They won 16 of 20.

They flipped the switch from six under .500 to six over .500 (59-53) in a matter of three weeks. And they found themselves right in the thick of the wild card race. Unfortunately, they only made up a half game on the Tigers, who were equally hot in that stretch. Nevertheless, baseball suddenly became relevant for Royals fans in August.

I predicted this team to win 84 games before the season. A winning season, but not enough to make their first postseason appearance since 1985 — the year they won the whole freaking thing. Based off of Baseball Prospectus' win-loss projections, that is exactly the win total the Royals are on pace for. That certainly won't get them to the playoffs. A win total of 90 would be enough to throw their hat in the ring. Baltimore and Texas won 93 games last season and tied for the final two wild card spots and that's about where current wild card occupants Tampa Bay (69-51) and Oakland (69-52) are headed toward. In order to reach 93 wins the Royals, who sit at 64-57 after sweeping the second half of a doubleheader against the Tigers, would need to finish the season 29-12. That is roughly .700 baseball, which is difficult, but not improbable. And slightly less ambitious than the Royals have been playing to get to this position. And as I alluded to earlier, I'm here to talk about opportunity, however slim it might be.
Update: The Royals lost the final two games of the series to the Tigers and are now 64-59, thus needing to go 29-10 to get to 93 wins. This post is seeming more dire by the moment isn't it? Alas, positivity! Onward! 

Before I delve into the remainder of the schedule — which is more than favorable — lets discuss some statistics.

The Royals currently have the eighth best run differential among American League teams at +25. The teams ahead of them are the Rangers (+58) and the Orioles (+44) and the Indians (+30). What does this mean? Perhaps nothing, as run differential isn't a hard and fast rule for who makes the playoffs. But in most cases, it certainly does. Take last season for example — every team who made the playoffs in the AL had a run differential of better than +56 with the exception of the Orioles. The O's were perhaps one of the biggest anomalies in playoff history, as their record was a shiny 93-69, but they had a run differential of just +7. And the team they finished three games ahead of for a playoff spot, the Rays, had a +120 which was the second best in the league. The reason for Baltimore's peculiar ascent into the playoffs ahead of their AL East counterpart was a ridiculous winning percentage in one-run games. The Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games last season and that .763 winning percentage is the third best all time in one run games.

The Royals aren't tracking anywhere near that level of randomness, but they are 24-19 in one-run games so far this season. And it's no mistake they, like the Orioles a year ago, have a fantastic bullpen to go along with their luck. The bullpen is spearheaded by closer Greg Holland who is on pace for one of the greatest season's by a reliever ever. Holland has converted 34 save opportunities and 27 in a row after saving both ends of the doubleheader against Detroit on Friday. In 49 innings he has a microscopic 1.47 earned-run average and has a ridiculous 77 strikeouts against just 13 walks. That equates to 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Closers, and in that case relievers in general, aren't overly valuable. That's why they're so easily replaceable and dispensable. Holland, however, has been worth almost 2 wins above replacement (1.8 WAR) this season and if he keeps his current pace he will easily eclipse that. Orioles closer Jim Johnson had a 2.4 WAR last season and his season, while spectacular, is  a far cry from Holland's current pace. (Johnson has also imploded of late for the Orioles, blowing three consecutive saves, and is just a 0.4 WAR pitcher this season. And Baltimore, who "just knew how to win close games last season" is 14-21 in one-run games this season with virtually the same exact roster.) 

Anyway, if theres a comparison to be made for the Royals it's to last year's Orioles. And while 93 wins is ambitious, with a good pitching staff, backed by the best defense in baseball and great bullpen bookended by the best closer in baseball coupled with a favorable schedule — opportunity is abound.

Now, about that schedule.

The Tigers: The Royals are in the midst of perhaps their most important series in my lifetime. Which by the way is sad, but I digress. It's not likely they'll be able to catch the Tigers, who I think are the best team in baseball, but for whatever reason the Royals seem to match up well with them. Even if they drop the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals will still hold a 7-6 advantage in the season series. (Update: They did just that. But it's 7-6 for the year, so suck it Detroit.) They will see the Tigers six more times with a three-game home series Sept. 6-8 and a three-game series in Detroit the following weekend. There is opportunity to gain direct ground on the division leader.

The Indians: I've never been sold on the Tribe as a serious playoff contender or as a bigger threat to the Tigers than the Royals. But I love what they did with their lineup — adding lots of guys who do a hell of a job at getting on base — and their approach challenges the core pre-conceived notion in baseball: You can't win without good pitching. The Indians do not have good pitching. Their staff ranks 12th in the AL in ERA. But their offense is the fourth best in the AL. And while the Tigers own the Indians — 13-3 in the season series — the Royals have struggled with the Tribe and have a losing record of 5-8 against them. Without question, the biggest stretch of the season comes Sept. 6-18 when they play six against the Tigers and six against the Indians. If the Royals can go 8-4 or 9-3 in that stretch — and just so we're clear, they'll need to do just that — the final 10 games of the season will be very interesting.

The Royals play three in Cleveland Sept. 9-11 and three at Kauffman Sept. 16-18.

The Rest of the Schedule: If you take away the 12 games against the two division foes, the Royals have just four (!) games of the 27 remaining against teams above .500. A makeup home contest against the Rays Aug. 26 and three home games against the Rangers following the important 12 game stretch beginning Sept. 20. The Rangers and Rays, of course, are currently ahead of the Royals in the wild card race, so those games loom large depending on how things shake out in their respective divisions. The Rangers are currently a 1/2 game up on the Athletics in the West and the Rays trail the Red Sox by one game in the East.
For the record, I think the Athletics will win the West and the Rays will leapfrog the Red Sox in the East, but they're big games nonetheless.

The Royals have 10 games left against the Twins and White Sox, who they've gone a combined 19-9 against, including a four-game road series against the White Sox to end the season. After the series with the Tigers, the Royals have a 17-game stretch against below .500 teams with the exception of the one-game makeup against the Rays. They need to scorch through that slate if they're to have a decent opportunity in the final month of the season. That stretch, if dealt with properly, will lead into the biggest stretch of the season against the Tigers and Indians. If the Royals can win 12 or 13 of those 17 — more would be ideal — they'll set themselves within the 77-63 or 76-64 range. That narrows the daunting task of 27-10 to finish the season suddenly to winning something like 15 of 22 to finish 92-70.

A potential and significant hinderance to the Royals making this run is the absence of Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas. Cain is out with a strained oblique, and as Bob Dutton of the KC Star writes, his return might be farther away than expected. This is particularly discouraging news, because despite what the peripherals tell you about Cain: .261/.324/.362, he has been the Royals most valuable player this season. He's been worth 3.4 WAR according to Baseball Reference — the highest on the team slightly ahead of surging Eric Hosmer (2.8), despite playing in just 96 games this season. The bulk of his value comes from his unbelievable defense in center field, where he is a 2.6 dWAR player and has saved 22 runs ALL BY HIMSELF this season according to The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric for a defense that has saved far and away the most runs of any team with 72. Cain's absence in centerfield is a huge detriment to the Royals. And while his bat isn't great, his OBP of .324 is theoretically being replaced by either second baseman Chris Getz' .299 OBP, newly acquired Emilio Bonifacio's .263 OBP or fourth outfielder Jarrod Dyson's .317 OBP. A downgrade in every sense. If Cain is shelved for the next couple weeks, it's obviously a continued big blow, but if the timetable of his return is the second week of September, as hinted in Dutton's article, it's a crucial return with the 12-game Detroit/Cleveland stretch ahead. Moustakas played against the Tigers on Saturday and while he appeared gingerly on the bases, he went 2 for 3 in the six hole. He is unquestionably an upgrade from Jamey Carroll, Bonifacio and de facto Getz. His second-half surge has been dully noted by this skeptic and he is needed the rest of the way for this team to have any kind of chance to put up more than three runs a game in the coming weeks.

As it is now, after predictably dropping the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals are 64-59 with a +25 run differential and six games out of the second wild card.

It's a formidable challenge ahead and the prospects of snagging a postseason berth are slim, but not impossible. And while it's somewhat depressing — check that, extremely depressing — it's a certainty the Royals will be playing meaningful baseball in September for the first time in my lifetime. And that's something to get excited about.

Opportunity — it's a beautiful thing.

Greinke the Skeptic

The Greinke trade has been analyzed by the experts and broken down by the sabermetric geeks and the consensus is, well, there is no consensus. Some say the Royals got a great haul, like Buster Olney, but others feel they gave away their best pitcher in the last decade to add little to an already loaded farm system; Keith Law. I'm aligning myself with the former, but on a more moderate platform, like Rany Jazayerli. The Royals added a lot, but the fact that they had to make the trade is a complete failure on the behalf of Dayton Moore and the franchise. Zack Greinke didn't care if he played in the big market (New York, Boston, etc), he just wanted to pitch for playoff team, which is something Royals failed to accomplish during his time with the club.

But didn't Greinke know that the Royals have the best minor league system in baseball? Hadn't he heard of the massive numbers the Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers were putting up? Didn't someone tell him about the wealth of lefty arms that could complement him in the starting rotation in Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, and Danny Duffy? 

Unfortunately for the Royals, Greinke had heard this before during former GM Allard Baird's days, however, this time he wasn't buying it. He had seen the fair share of can't-miss prospects that were suppose to surround him like Alex Gordon, come up to the majors and, well, miss. He no longer believed in or "trusted the process" that he was told to trust the seven years he was there. And who can blame him? If anything his comments toward the end of the 2010 season that doubted the future success of the franchise, brought him closer to Royals' fans. 

I've never been as excited about the Royals' future as am I currently, but I'm still pessimistic about the Royals going to the playoffs for the first time in my lifetime, aren't you? As a Royals fan I've been told year after year to "trust the process," and for some crazy reason I'm still listening. Greinke, however, is not anymore.