Big 12 Weekend Rewind

What did we learn:

• The Big 12 will have at least five teams in the NCAA tournament. 
• That's what the Missouri win over Baylor on Wednesday and the Kansas State win over Missouri on Saturday ensured. With Texas, Kansas and Texas A&M presumably in "lock status," Missouri and Kansas State appear to have joined them with their work this week. Missouri was already fairly secure in its bid, but with its final three including road games vs. Kansas State (which they lost) and Nebraska and a home finale against #2 Kansas, a win over Baylor was the final luster on the resume that the Tigers needed in order to assure a record no worse than 8-8 in conference--which would be good enough to get them in the tournament. 
• Jacob Pullen and Kansas State appear to have completed the turnaround after its season looked like a major disappointment only a couple weeks ago. The Wildcats, (20-9, 8-6) with an RPI of 25 and SOS of 5, should safely be in the NCAA tournament, but they better take care of business in the season finale at home vs. Iowa State to be safe. 
• Colorado has reentered the bubble conversation.
• With its impressive come-from-behind victory at home vs. #5 Texas, the Buffaloes have all of the sudden become a serious player in the at-large conversation. I watched the game after the fact on ESPN3 and I have never seen a game change so much from one half to the next. Colorado, which trailed 48-33 at halftime and by as much as 22 points in the first half, came all the way back to actually lead by 11 and hold on for a 91-89 victory. Alec Burks scored 24 of his 33 in the second half and 11 of them came in a stretch where the Buffaloes outscored the Longhorns 14-0. If Colorado can knock off Iowa State in Ames and Nebraska at home, the Buffaloes will be in great position for an NCAA tournament at-large bid and Burks will garner serious consideration for player of the year in the Big 12.  
• On the flip-side, the loss by Texas was its second in three games-- both to unranked opponents on the road. The biggest concern for the Longhorns, however, should be the amount of points it has given up in both contests. The 70 to Nebraska was the most it had given up to a conference opponent all-season, but the 91 points surrendered to Colorado on Saturday is the most Texas has given up all season. Defense has been the staple of the Longhorn's success and the latter part of the season is not the time to waver from that formula. Texas is now tied atop the Big 12 with Kansas at 12-2, but it does hold the tie-breaker due to beating the Jayhawks earlier this season in Lawrence. If the Longhorns are able to defeat Kansas State on big Monday and Baylor in Waco, however, it should be in a good position for a #1 seed in the Big 12 and NCAA tournament. 
•  Baylor is still on the bubble, but in better shape than it was a week ago. 
• Baylor was pummeled by Missouri in Columbia on Wednesday night, as expected, but rebounded nicely with a "that's more like it" effort in a home victory over #17 Texas A&M to complete the season sweep of the Aggies. Baylor held Texas A&M to 35% shooting and just 22% from three-point land. And the Bears finally took my advice and fed their stud big man, Perry Jones, who responded nicely with an efficient 7-13 from the field and 16 points in 35 minutes of play. Baylor still has work to do with an RPI of 69 and SOS of 47, but Saturday was a step in the right direction. If the Bears can knock off Oklahoma State in Stillwater and #7 Texas at home then it would most likely move to at-large status. If not, then the Bears will have to make some noise in the Big 12 tournament, which they are fully capable of doing.  

Big 12 Power Rankings:

1. Kansas (12-2)
2. Texas (12-2)
3. Texas A&M (9-5)
4. Missouri (8-6)
5. Kansas State (8-6)
6. Colorado (7-7)
7. Baylor (7-7)
8. Nebraska (6-8)
9. Oklahoma State (5-9)
10. Oklahoma (4-10)
11. Texas Tech (4-10)
12. Iowa State (2-12)

Big Games of the Week: 

• Kansas State @ #7 Texas: This Big Monday matchup could determine a lot about how things turn out in the Big 12 standings. A win by Texas won't change much, but if Kansas State is able to go into Austin and steal one, then the Wildcats would be the favorite to get the fourth seed and all important bye in the Big 12 tournament. On the flip side, a loss by Texas would most likely give Kansas a share of the Big 12 title and an outright title if it is able to take care of Texas A&M at home and Missouri in Columbia. Texas hasn't lost a home conference game and its only home loss of the season came at the hands of a hot-shooting Kemba Walker and UCONN. Kansas State has won four straight, three of which were in Manhattan and the one road win came in a nail biter at Nebraska. This is an interesting game, as Kansas State is playing its best basketball of the season, while Texas has struggled of late. With that being said, Texas has not struggled at home and the Wildcats, even with their late season push, are still 2-5 on the road in conference. I think Pullen and company keep it close with the Longhorns, but I don't think they have enough fire-power to get the job done in Austin--if this one is in Manhattan it might be a different story. Jordan Hamilton bounces back after his dismal performance against Colorado and Texas wins the way it has all season, with defense, 72-59. 
• #24 Missouri @ Nebraska: For Missouri this game is as must-win as any game has been all season. A loss here by the Tigers would drop them to 8-7 in conference with #2 Kansas coming to Columbia on Saturday and could be staring at a 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament--a far cry from preseason expectations. Nebraska came back to earth after shocking the country in its upset victory over Texas, by losing at home to Kansas State and saw its bubble completely burst Saturday in a devastating loss to Iowa State. Missouri is the more talented team here and has much more at stake, as noted earlier. It has been as tough to pick against the Huskers at home as it has been to predict a road win for the Tigers. I think the Tigers realize how big of a game this is and come together for a huge road win, 64-58.    
• Baylor @ Oklahoma State: Like Missouri, Baylor needs this game, but for different reasons. Baylor needs to win this game to keep themselves in contention for an at-large berth. If the Bears lose they will be facing, what is essentially, a must-win against Texas to finish the season. It hasn't been easy to win in Stillwater this season, even though the Cowboys are fairly average and Baylor has been up-and-down this year. So logic tells me the smart move is to pick the Cowboys. I'll oblige, Cowboys win 82-74. 
• Colorado @ Iowa State: As mentioned earlier, Colorado needs to win out in order to attain an at-large berth. Colorado is the better team and has shown it is capable of winning on the road this season. I never like to pick against NBA talent in big game situations and I wont start here. Burks takes over in a must-win game for the Buffaloes, 74-62. 

Big 12 Weekend Rewind/Separation Week

What did we learn:

• Texas is not invincible and the Huskers are nails in Cornland.  
• I posted after the Texas victory at Texas A&M that I thought the Longhorns would be able to get through the conference slate undefeated; having put the tough portion of its schedule in the rearview. I was wrong. Nebraska continued its impressive play at the Devaney Center, improving to 16-1 at home this season. (More on this later) 
• Texas is statistically the best defensive team in the Big 12, holding opponents to just under 56 ppg. This is how Texas has been winning games, adding credibility to the old adage that defense wins championships. Texas, however, had not faced a team that had equally impressive defensive statistics, (defense as whole in the Big 12 is fairly poor) until Saturday in Lincoln. Nebraska had been holding opponents to just a tick under 60 ppg. and seemingly beat the Longhorns at their own game--and until the final two minutes of regulation--were fairly dominant in doing so. The Huskers slowed down the pace and worked the shot clock on offense, while holding the Longhorns to 36% shooting on defense. 
• The win by the Huskers securely moved them into the bubble conversation with its second impressive RPI top 50 victory. At 18-8 (6-6) with and RPI of 61 and home contests against Kansas State and Missouri still remaining, Nebraska has a real shot to play its way into the NCAA tournament.
• Jacob Pullen wasn't kidding about not playing in the NIT. 
• At least he played that way this past week in wins over rival Kansas and Oklahoma. Pullen dropped 38 points and looked every bit like the preseason All-American he was voted, in a dominating win over #1 Kansas. He then followed it up with 27 points in a victory over the Sooners on Saturday. Those are Pullen's two highest-scoring performances of the season and they couldn't have come at a better time, with Kansas State firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in. 
• Missouri CAN win on the road! 
• The Tigers entered Saturday's contest vs. Iowa State in desperate need of a road win, not only for its psyche, but to show the selection committee that it is actually capable of doing so. The Tigers were able to hold on, 76-70, in, what was for the most part, a very competitive game. It wasn't pretty, but the Tigers got it done and can finally stop answering questions about winning on the road. 
• Baylor, meet bubble. Bubble, meet Baylor. You two are going to get cozy with each other for the next couple weeks.   
• After watching Baylor play Texas to its most competitive conference game--to that point--I thought the Bears were finally putting things together. Then they pulled a head-scratcher on Saturday and lost at home to Texas Tech. I didn't watch the game, but I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the score go across the ESPN timeline. Baylor gave up 78 points to the Red Raiders on 51% shooting, at home--not good. But the most concerning statistic was that the Bears went 22% from behind the arc on 18 attempts, while dominant big man, Perry Jones, attempted just four field goals and scored only 10 points. That is sheer injustice to the institution of offense (OK, a little dramatic), but when you have one of the most gifted low-post players in the country on your team, there shouldn't be a game where he attempts fewer than 10 field goals, let alone, five.
• The loss by Baylor, as I alluded to earlier, places them firmly on the bubble and they might be on the outside looking in as it stands right now. You simply can't have the average resume the Bears do and weather a loss at home to a sub-.500 Texas Tech team. Baylor is going to have to go 3-1 in its remaining four games, which include road games vs. #21 Missouri and Oklahoma State and home games vs. #5 Texas and #17 Texas A&M, in order to get back into the good graces of the selection committee--good luck with that.

Big 12 Power Rankings:

1. Texas
2. Kansas 
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri 
5. Kansas State 
6. Nebraska
7. Baylor 
8. Colorado 
9. Texas Tech 
10. Oklahoma State 
11. Oklahoma 
12. Iowa State 

Big Games of the Week:

• Baylor @ #21 Missouri: This is a must-win for both teams. More so for Missouri since it is at home, but Baylor desperately needs to recover from its embarrassing home loss to Texas Tech. Both teams face a treacherous three game stretch to finish the season. Missouri must go on the road to face Kansas State and Nebraska and then finishes at home against #2 Kansas. Meanwhile Baylor has #17 Texas A&M and #5 Texas at home and a tough road test against Oklahoma State. A win by Missouri pushes them closer to securing a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament and officially eliminates Baylor from catching them due to a two game lead and the tie-breaker.  Missouri has literally been unbeatable at home this season and I expect that to continue as Baylor's soft zone defense and sloppy offense plays right into the hands of the Tigers frenetic style of play. Tigers win 84-70.  
• Kansas State @ Nebraska: Can Nebraska come off the emotional high of beating #2 Texas and position themselves nicely for a first round bye in the Big 12 tournament? (Can't believe I just typed that) Or will Kansas State continue to ride the Pullen Express to a third straight victory? This is a very interesting matchup that would put the winner in a much better position to making the NCAA tournament. It would do much more for Nebraska, however, than it would Kansas State, as the Wildcats did themselves a huge favor already by knocking off Kansas and have a very solid RPI of 30. To be honest I haven't an inkling of who I think will win this game. Kansas State blew out Nebraska in Manhattan only a few weeks ago, but the Huskers are a much different team at home. Kansas State has had its troubles on the road and as much it pains me to say this, I think the Huskers are for real, at home at least. Nebraska wins a close one, 58-54. 

Big 12 Weekend Rewind/Border War

What did we learn:

• That Missouri is really, really bad on the road and really, really good at home.
• Not exactly new information, but I was shocked the Tigers were unable to get a victory at Stillwater against a very average Oklahoma State team. Even more surprising, just as it were in Austin, the Tigers never once had the lead against the Cowboys. Let me sum that up for you: MISSOURI TRAILED IN ALL 80 MINUTES IT PLAYED ON THE ROAD TRIP. 
• On the flip side, the Tigers were once again very impressive in its 89-73 payback victory over Colorado on Saturday. I saw posted on espn.com's college basketball weekend recap, something to the effect of, "At what point do the Tigers' road woes become concerning to fans?" In my opinion it is already at that point. You can understand the losses to Texas and Texas A&M, and I'll even give them Colorado, but losing to Oklahoma State is inexcusable. It won't get any easier this week for the Tigers with a Big Monday date in Lawrence.
•   Baylor might be starting to fulfill its pre-season hype. 
• There is a reason the Bears were picked preseason top 15 and a contender to win the Big 12.  It's a team loaded with size, length, and most importantly, talent. All of that was on full display Saturday in College Station when the Bears escaped with a victory over the Texas A&M Aggies. Baylor got out to a big lead early and although it was taken to overtime, was able to hang on to a precious conference road victory. Perry Jones was a man amongst boys on the offensive side of the court, scoring 27 points. Showing that when the Bears get him involved and don't jack up ill-advised shots, (talking to you Lacedarius Dunn) then this can be a dangerous team, because there is simply no answer for him inside. He is a match-up problem for any defender, due to his ability to score with his back to the basket and his ability to face-up and knock down 15 foot jump-shots if you force away from the basket. 

Border War Preview:


My quick thoughts to this matchup:

• The Tigers simply have no answer for the Morris Twins inside. Ricardo Ratliffe is very good inside, but he can't guard both Morris Twins and he's going to have his hands full with the better one, Marcus. 
• The Tigers are playing god-awful on the road this season and Allen Fieldhouse has never been kind to them. It has been 11 years since the Tigers last won there and no one on the current Missouri roster has come within single-digits of Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. 
• If Missouri wants to win it can't come out shooting poorly. The common ingredient in the last several match ups between these two at Allen Fieldhouse has been Kansas starting hot and Missouri starting, well, not. Seems obvious, but it is crucial that the Tigers get off to a good start shooting the basketball. The Phog can begin to wear on you mentally if you start off the game ice cold. 

Breakdown and Prediction:
If the Tigers want to win this game it must get Ricardo Ratliffe involved early and often. Good things tend to happen when the big-fellow is involved and it could go a long way in containing Marcus Morris on the offensive end if he has to work hard defensively.

Secondly, Missouri HAS to get Marcus Denmon involved early. He is the Tigers' most gifted scorer and they are a tough team to beat when he is playing well. Mike Anderson looked like he had this sentiment in Colorado game, as many offensive sets looked to be predicated on getting Denmon the ball, off lots of screens and curls to the basket. Anderson would be wise to use this same game-plan against the Jayhawks and hope that Denmon can deliver, because if not, it could be a long night.

The last thing I'm very interested to see is how Missouri employs its up-tempo style in this game. Missouri's motto is "The Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball," however this game does not seem to phase the Jayhawks, especially in Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas plays a fairly up-tempo style themselves and has no problem going up and down the court all night and have never seemed to be too effected by the defensive pressure. So, does Mike Anderson try and mix up the game-plan a little and apply the full-court pressure, but switch back into zone occasionally? It will be interesting to see, but honestly I don't see that happening.

This game could be more interesting with the injury of star freshman guard, Josh Selby, who will sit out this game for the Jayhawks. However, Kansas is still very deep and has shooters all over the court against a Missouri team that just doesn't play great half-court defense. I think Kansas will get the Morris twins involved, especially Marcus, early on and if Missouri doesn't come out hot it will be a long night. However, if the Tigers do come out and shoot well early on, get Ratliffe and Denmon involved, and are able to apply effective pressure, then they have a real shot in this game. I don't see them doing all of the above, which is necessary to win. Kansas wins 86-72.

Big 12 Weekend Rewind

What did we learn:

• That Texas is the toast of the Big 12 (pun intended). 
• I was going to lead off by saying that Texas is really good after its victory against Missouri on Saturday. Then the Longhorns decided to put a historic beat down on their rival's home court. After beating #16 Texas A&M, 69-49, to improve to 7-0 in conference, I think it's time to look at the Longhorns as a legitimate national championship contender. I don't see the Horns losing any of its remaining games with the toughest one being its last, at Baylor. That would put the Horns at 28-3 (16-0) heading into the Big 12 tournament and a legitimate #1 seed come NCAA tournament time. 
• That it is really hard to win on the road in the Big 12, unless you're Texas or Kansas. 
• Before getting punked on its home court, the Aggies were held to two field goals in the final ten minutes in Lincoln, falling to Nebraska, 57-48. Baylor also held serve at home, 70-66, after falling behind by as much as 17 against Colorado to hand the Buffs their fourth straight conference loss after starting off 3-0. Missouri remained winless on the road in conference after losing to the Longhorns in Austin, although no one will fault it for that, and Kansas State was absolutely walloped in Lawrence, 90-66. Lastly, Texas Tech held serve at home as well in an overtime thriller against Oklahoma State; making home teams 5-1 on the weekend with Oklahoma being the lone road team to get a victory in another overtime game at Iowa State.
• That Texas Tech and Oklahoma are not as bad as I thought they were coming into conference play. 
• When Mike Singletary isn't coaching the 49ers he is actually a fairly decent basketball player who makes the Red Raiders a tough team to beat. In all seriousness, before conference play began I really thought the Red Raiders were the worst team in the Big 12 and four games in they didn't do anything to change that opinion. But after a three game winning streak in which Singletary has averaged 24 points, I'm starting to think that getting a win in Lubbock won't be all that easy, unless you're Texas or Kansas of course. Oklahoma is also not as bad as I thought it was after winning its last three as well. The common component between the Red Raiders and Sooners, however, is that both have merely held on at home and the one road victory in the 3 game streak has been at measly Iowa State. 

Big 12 Power Rankings:

1. Texas 
2. Kansas 
3. Missouri 
4. Texas A&M 
5. Baylor 
6. Colorado 
7. Kansas State 
8. Nebraska 
9. Oklahoma 
10. Oklahoma State 
11. Texas Tech 
12. Iowa State 

Big Games of the Week:

• #3 Texas @ #16 Texas A&M: Obviously, I'm a day late on this one, but I thought if the Longhorns could go into College Station and beat A&M then I would label them the favorite to win the conference. Texas did not only win, it flat out dominated the Aggies and seem to me to be the clear favorite to win the league and are a legitimate national title contender after passing its last big test of the conference season. 
• #2 Kansas @ Texas Tech: I type this minutes before these two face off in Lubbock. I'm very interested to see if the Red Raiders are for real, and they don't have to win to prove that to me. If Tech can avoid being blown out by the Jayhawks then I will be impressed. It is going to take huge games from Singletary and John Roberson for them to even have a chance. I don't see it happening. Jayhawks win going away, 82-63.
• #15 Missouri @ Oklahoma State: Pending Missouri is able to arrive in time to play this Wednesday night showdown, this will be a huge game for the Tigers. Missouri is 0-3 on the road in conference and its only real road win of the year came against a lousy Oregon team, and the Tigers barely held on in that one. Missouri is the better team in this matchup and if it wants to be considered a legitimate contender it has to start winning road games like this one. Oklahoma State's Marshall Moses poses the biggest threat to the Tigers and is a double-double machine, but if Ricardo Ratliffe can get involved early and often then the Tigers should have no problems in this game. Lose this one and any thoughts of a top four league finish might go out the window and the Tigers will start to become apart of a conversation they don't want to be involved in; Bubble Watch. I think the Tigers avoid that and win comfortably, 76-64.