As the Kansas City Royals returned to action this past weekend against the Twins after a peculiar two-games-in-five-days start to the season, I'd like to delve into the age-old game of critiquing Ned Yost's lineup. Pardon me, that's World Series Champion Manager Ned Yost.
It's true, criticizing anything about the Royals these days seems a bit like malpractice, given the overwhelming success the organization has had the past two seasons. However, that doesn't mean they are beyond reproach. Yost especially.
The seasoned manager has done some things I've really liked over the past couple years and I think he's really grown into the role. He's adapted, especially in the postseason, the way he goes about his decision-making process in many regards. Though history will forget his numerous errors and recognize him as the guy who helped transform baseball's doormat into a model franchise of sorts. But the entire Royals fan base had him fired midway through the 2014 Wild Card game and, perhaps, for justifiable reasons.
Yost has never been particularly adept at the skill of in-game managing, but he's always been revered for his ability to mold together a club house and it's hard to argue his style hasn't been beneficial to this team. But, that's neither here nor there.
I'm here to assess his 2016 linuep. Which, for now, is as follows:
1) Alcides Escobar
2) Mike Moustakas
3) Lorenzo Cain
4) Eric Hosmer
5) Kendrys Morales
6) Alex Gordon
7) Sal Perez
8) Omar Infante
9) Raymond Fuentes
This is the second year in a row that Yost has convinced himself Escobar is a different hitter at the top of the order. And that belief is rooted in Escobar's postseason success at the leadoff spot, which is real, as he hit .329/.347/.514 in last year's playoffs, including a .478/.481/.652 line against Toronto which earned him ALCS MVP. But it's also an extremely small sample size. Without getting off track too much and dissecting the imposible theory of whether certain players are more "clutch" than others, it's certainly not disputable that Escobar has been a much better hitter in the postesason than in the regular season where he is a career .300 OBP guy.
That sort of thing can be hidden in 15-20 games if a player gets hot. It can't be in a 162-game season. Escobar is 29. He is who he is at this point in his career. Over the course of a full season, the Royals are a better team if he is receiving less plate appearances than say, Alex Gordon, a career .350 OBP guy who is coming off a career-high .377 OBP season last year, yet is once again slotted in the six hole. The Royals are a better team if Gordon is receiving the 30 or so plate appearance he loses from being so far down in the lineup.
Moustakas, slotted once again in the two hole to begin the season, is also an ill-advised decision. Though it was more head-scratching last season, given the fact Moustakas was nearly a lost cause at the plate as a big leaguer, with his best season coming as a rookie in 2011 when he hit .263/.309/.367. To his credit, Moustakas, almost remarkably, completely retooled his swing and his approach at the plate to destroy the shift to the tune of .356/.420/.522 the first month of the season. He cooled off in ensuing months and eventually was relegated back to the six hole in the lineup, but he went on to post, by far, the best season of his career with a .284/.348/.470 line.
Moustakas turning into a revelation at the plate was a huge reason why the Royals were so good last season. And there are certainly more egregious choices than slotting him second in the lineup. However, it's fair to expect him to be a tick off his 2015 campaign, especially in the on-base department, given how drastic an improvement it was from his career averages where he remains a .300 OPB hitter.
The Royals' most optimal lineup, to me, looks something like this (career averages included):
1) Gordon .268/.348/.434
2) Cain .286/.336./.417
3) Hosmer .280/.337/.427
4) Morales .274/.330/.465
5) Moustakas .247/.303/.401
6) Perez .278/.306/.431
7) Colon/Infante .303/.365/.381 ... .272/.309/.388
8) Fuentes/Dyson .255/.320/.343
9) Escobar .262/.298/.344
It's minor changes, of course. And even if it operated at optimal form, it's worth maybe two wins on the season. But two wins is two wins. Despite the success the past three years, the Royals' lineup had been below average until last season. Cain has turned into a fascinating player — always a defensive gem who has suddenly found himself at the plate and turned into one of the game's best players. He is, for now, the Royals best player and hitter and should be slotted accordingly in the two hole. Gordon, one of the few anomalies on a team who strikes out so rarely, has a propensity to whiff far more often than his teammates while also drawing more walks, making him an ideal leadoff guy for this club.
Power is appropriately placed in the middle of the order while an interesting mixture rounds out the bottom third of the order with good OBP (FREE COLON) and speed resides.
This is all a moot point, however. The Royals, and Ned Yost specifically, believe they have a magic formula with Escobar leading off. And though it makes zero sense analytically, it has been conducive to success in where it matters most: in the postseason. But you have to get to the postseason in order to deploy the strategy and a better lineup construction would aid that.
As was the case last season, I fully expect the necessary changes to be made in June or July. So for now, enjoy the free-swinging spectacle to start off Royals games.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Grand Missteps: Daryl Morey and the Rockets
After Wednesday's narrow defeat at Dallas the Houston Rockets are a full game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The 88-86 loss to the Mavericks was the latest disappointment in a season that's been full of them. The Rockets (38-40) trail the Utah Jazz (39-39) by a game in the standings with four left to play.
They have more than a puncher's chance to sneak in to the final slot, with their final four games against cellar dwellers in the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings, while the Jazz and Mavericks square off against each other in the penultimate game of the season. The Jazz also host the Clippers and have a road test at Denver.
All of that, however, is backdrop, while larger questiond about this Rockets' season loom, including: what happened? This is virtually the same team that went 56-26 last season and reached the conference finals. To go from that to this — a dysfunctional group of misfit toys on the brink of missing the postseason in a year where the Western Conference is as mediocre as its been in a decade — is perplexing.
On the surface, James Harden has followed up the best season of his career with an equally impressive 2015-16 campaign. The numbers (28.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 6.3 rpg.) are actually up from last year and his 25.05 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is just a tick off his 26.76 pace last year. However, if you've watched the Rockets this season, you know that's not close to true. Harden's played great the second half of the season, but it was what he did the first few weeks of the season that set the tone for this year. He was in the news during the offseason for activities not related to basketball, namely, his involvement with the least-desirable Kardashian. And he showed up to camp overweight. Say what you will about his private life (though dating a Kardashian is a documented terrible idea for any athlete), but when the team's star player shows up to camp out of shape and overweight, that's never a good sign.
The Rockets, unsurprisingly, stumbled out of the gates and got off to an 4-7 start. Kevin McHale took the fall for the poor start and was fired; never mind the fact Harden was atrocious during the lackluster start to the season while he tried to play his way into shape J.B. Bickerstaff took over, to the delight of Harden, who undoubtedly played a large role in McHale's firing, and the team has more or less been the same in the 67 games that have followed.
I'm not going to use this space to try and delve into what has ailed the Rockets this year. It's really been a combination of things. Dwight Howard is no longer a premier big man in a league that has slowly gravitated away from the low-post game. His defensive prowess is mitigated when team's go to the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that includes stretch 5's, dragging him out to an uncomfortable space on the perimeter. Plus, he's not nearly the same rebounder he used to be and is almost unplayable down the stretch due to is abysmal free-throw shooting. He and Harden found glimpses of synergy last season and it resulted in some wonderful pick-and-roll combinations, which helped fuel the playoff run. But neither has been on the same page this season. Josh Smith hasn't provided the same ineffable boost this season. Terrence Jones, who at times looked like he was coming into his own as a quality power forward last season, has been a disaster this year and has seen his minutes decrease in favor of Clint Capela. Sadly, one of the main positives of the year has been the pleasant surprise of Michael Beasley on the offensive end — though he still hasn't fully grasped the evolving analytics of how stupid taking 20-foot twos are, but I digress.
None of that of course matters much. What matters is this team has been a lost cause, for this season anyway, since late January and the inability of GM Daryl Morey to realize this has set the franchise back. It was quite obvious whatever magic the team had captured last year was not going to suddenly manifest itself in 2015-16, so with Howard's impending free agency, it would've been prudent to blow it up at the trade deadline.
It's true, the Rockets wouldn't have gotten a great haul for Howard, but moving him went beyond acquiring assets. Fair or unfair, there's very little to gain for a team like the Rockets from sneaking into the eight spot of the playoffs and much to lose from finishing ninth or 10th. This is not a young team trying to mold itself into a title contender, taking baby steps along the way. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Outside of Harden, whose 26, it's an aging and declining roster that can point to who else as a young building block? Capela?
This "playoff hunt" masks the fact the Rockets face an unstable and uncertain future. Harden, under contract through 2019, has to be the star to build around. And despite how unappealing that sounds, given what's occurred this season, he is still unquestionably one of the ten best players in the league and you have to have at least one of "those guys" if you aspire to win a title. The problem, however, is the short list of players who appear to want to play with him. Morey has a proven track record of swinging for the fences in free agency. It's unclear though who he'd be able to bring in to pair alongside Harden.
Thus, the focus might have to be the draft.
Trading Howard and perhaps Ariza at the deadline would've served twofold. It brought back assets and provided a chance to see what the team looks like with Harden as the absolute focal point with perhaps some young players around him. If it didn't work out, it also quietly served as a silent tanking mechanism that would've allowed the team to sneak up the draft board to add a much-needed young building block. The Pelicans, who admittedly got off to a much worse start than the Rockets, identified the season as a lost cause at the appropriate time and have rested, err, been blessed with injuries to key cogs like Anthony Davis the final couple months of the season allowing them to vault up the draft lottery.
Morey and the Rockets would've been wise to employ the same tactic. But instead they fooled themselves into believing this core would recapture last season's form and make it into the playoffs with a real shot to make a run. That's not a strategy, it's hope. And you don't win championships based off hope. Morey, an accomplished GM with a keen eye for analytics, should know this better than anyone.
His inaction at the deadline undermined his own long-term goals for this franchise and it complicated the rebuilding efforts going forward. The Rockets will pick in the bottom part of the lottery at best where they're unlikely to find a difference maker — though Tyler Ullis is an interesting option at point guard. It's a far cry from where they were at this point last season and the fall has no doubt been swift.
Morey and Harden carry the most responsibility, thus bear the most blame. The ramifications from this year will extend well beyond next year and both are culpable in what has proven to be a disastrous season.
They have more than a puncher's chance to sneak in to the final slot, with their final four games against cellar dwellers in the Suns, Lakers, Timberwolves and Kings, while the Jazz and Mavericks square off against each other in the penultimate game of the season. The Jazz also host the Clippers and have a road test at Denver.
All of that, however, is backdrop, while larger questiond about this Rockets' season loom, including: what happened? This is virtually the same team that went 56-26 last season and reached the conference finals. To go from that to this — a dysfunctional group of misfit toys on the brink of missing the postseason in a year where the Western Conference is as mediocre as its been in a decade — is perplexing.
On the surface, James Harden has followed up the best season of his career with an equally impressive 2015-16 campaign. The numbers (28.6 ppg., 7.5 apg., 6.3 rpg.) are actually up from last year and his 25.05 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), is just a tick off his 26.76 pace last year. However, if you've watched the Rockets this season, you know that's not close to true. Harden's played great the second half of the season, but it was what he did the first few weeks of the season that set the tone for this year. He was in the news during the offseason for activities not related to basketball, namely, his involvement with the least-desirable Kardashian. And he showed up to camp overweight. Say what you will about his private life (though dating a Kardashian is a documented terrible idea for any athlete), but when the team's star player shows up to camp out of shape and overweight, that's never a good sign.
The Rockets, unsurprisingly, stumbled out of the gates and got off to an 4-7 start. Kevin McHale took the fall for the poor start and was fired; never mind the fact Harden was atrocious during the lackluster start to the season while he tried to play his way into shape J.B. Bickerstaff took over, to the delight of Harden, who undoubtedly played a large role in McHale's firing, and the team has more or less been the same in the 67 games that have followed.
I'm not going to use this space to try and delve into what has ailed the Rockets this year. It's really been a combination of things. Dwight Howard is no longer a premier big man in a league that has slowly gravitated away from the low-post game. His defensive prowess is mitigated when team's go to the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that includes stretch 5's, dragging him out to an uncomfortable space on the perimeter. Plus, he's not nearly the same rebounder he used to be and is almost unplayable down the stretch due to is abysmal free-throw shooting. He and Harden found glimpses of synergy last season and it resulted in some wonderful pick-and-roll combinations, which helped fuel the playoff run. But neither has been on the same page this season. Josh Smith hasn't provided the same ineffable boost this season. Terrence Jones, who at times looked like he was coming into his own as a quality power forward last season, has been a disaster this year and has seen his minutes decrease in favor of Clint Capela. Sadly, one of the main positives of the year has been the pleasant surprise of Michael Beasley on the offensive end — though he still hasn't fully grasped the evolving analytics of how stupid taking 20-foot twos are, but I digress.
None of that of course matters much. What matters is this team has been a lost cause, for this season anyway, since late January and the inability of GM Daryl Morey to realize this has set the franchise back. It was quite obvious whatever magic the team had captured last year was not going to suddenly manifest itself in 2015-16, so with Howard's impending free agency, it would've been prudent to blow it up at the trade deadline.
It's true, the Rockets wouldn't have gotten a great haul for Howard, but moving him went beyond acquiring assets. Fair or unfair, there's very little to gain for a team like the Rockets from sneaking into the eight spot of the playoffs and much to lose from finishing ninth or 10th. This is not a young team trying to mold itself into a title contender, taking baby steps along the way. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Outside of Harden, whose 26, it's an aging and declining roster that can point to who else as a young building block? Capela?
This "playoff hunt" masks the fact the Rockets face an unstable and uncertain future. Harden, under contract through 2019, has to be the star to build around. And despite how unappealing that sounds, given what's occurred this season, he is still unquestionably one of the ten best players in the league and you have to have at least one of "those guys" if you aspire to win a title. The problem, however, is the short list of players who appear to want to play with him. Morey has a proven track record of swinging for the fences in free agency. It's unclear though who he'd be able to bring in to pair alongside Harden.
Thus, the focus might have to be the draft.
Trading Howard and perhaps Ariza at the deadline would've served twofold. It brought back assets and provided a chance to see what the team looks like with Harden as the absolute focal point with perhaps some young players around him. If it didn't work out, it also quietly served as a silent tanking mechanism that would've allowed the team to sneak up the draft board to add a much-needed young building block. The Pelicans, who admittedly got off to a much worse start than the Rockets, identified the season as a lost cause at the appropriate time and have rested, err, been blessed with injuries to key cogs like Anthony Davis the final couple months of the season allowing them to vault up the draft lottery.
Morey and the Rockets would've been wise to employ the same tactic. But instead they fooled themselves into believing this core would recapture last season's form and make it into the playoffs with a real shot to make a run. That's not a strategy, it's hope. And you don't win championships based off hope. Morey, an accomplished GM with a keen eye for analytics, should know this better than anyone.
His inaction at the deadline undermined his own long-term goals for this franchise and it complicated the rebuilding efforts going forward. The Rockets will pick in the bottom part of the lottery at best where they're unlikely to find a difference maker — though Tyler Ullis is an interesting option at point guard. It's a far cry from where they were at this point last season and the fall has no doubt been swift.
Morey and Harden carry the most responsibility, thus bear the most blame. The ramifications from this year will extend well beyond next year and both are culpable in what has proven to be a disastrous season.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Sweet Home Chicago
As I gaze upon Lake Michigan from my apartment in downtown Chicago, I'm filled with insatiable ambition and also a little trepidation.
Such is the juxtaposition of emotion when taking a leap of faith in life, I suppose. I've lived in small towns my entire life and I'm coming from the smallest town I've ever lived in, Carroll, Iowa — just over 10,000 people — to the fourth-biggest city in the country. A booming metropolitan whose watery boarder accentuates its allure. And I came here to continue my pursuit of a dream.
I want to be a prominent sportswriter in a city where it matters. Sports are king in Chicago. The greatest basketball player of all time did it here. Baseball's lovable losers play here; and they are on the brink of greatness. The hockey team is in the midst of a mini dynasty. And I'm likely only one of a couple thousand who care that there's also a professional soccer team here. This city is full of opportunity for anyone, but especially for someone in my field.
Since the first time I visited here as a middle schooler with my family, I've been intrigued by it. I came here twice in college, the second time as a senior on my fraternity's semi-formal, and that was the moment I decided I wanted to live here. I loved everything about the city, minus the unrelenting winter.
Freelancing for the Chicago Tribune won't occupy the amount of time my writing-centric life desires, so I hope to further utilize this space as a means of sharing thoughts on my journey here, but also to provide some insight and analysis on the Chicago sports scene as a I continue to entrench myself in it.
Until next time, cheers.
Saturday, March 5, 2016
The Kim Anderson Dilemma
Mizzou ended its season with a 82-72 loss to Florida on Saturday night. It was completely expected in a season that's been full of losses. The Tigers went 3-15 in the Southeastern Conference and 10-21 overall. It's one of the worst seasons in program history, yet it was better than the previous one.
Which brings us to head coach Kim Anderson, who has been at the helm for perhaps the worst two-year stretch in Mizzou basketball history. To write that is not unfair, to write it without context is. Anderson took over a program in terrible shape that became worse when the final blow of the Frank Haith era reared its ugly head midway through this season. But still, starting your career as a Division-I head coach with a 19-44 mark does little to curry favor within the athletic department or the fanbase.
New athletic director Mack Rhoads has an unenviable task ahead of him. He didn't hire Anderson. The program, by all intents and purposes, is a mess. Yet, there is smidgen of promise ahead. The Tigers had the 13th youngest team in the country and their best players are freshmen. Point guard Terrence Phillips is a gamer and will most certainly be a good player; he was three assists short of the program's first triple-double Saturday night. Fellow freshman Kevin Puryear was the team's leading scorer and only player who averaged double figures this year (holy crap that's bad). He offers the potential for a tremendous four-year player. But should Anderson be there for the ride?
From an aesthetics standpoint, Mizzou hoops the past two seasons has been something its fans have had to endure. They don't do anything that conjures up feelings of a team that is well coached. Their ball movement would make Swaggy P blush. Their outside shooting is so bad, if Mark Cuban had any vested interest in the game he'd lobby for the three-point line to be move in. And their transition defense is like watching them play a game of musical chairs. But then again, how much of that is due to the fact it is a young, relatively untalented team that is facing a better opposition almost every night?
Again, I don't envy Rhoads. Anderson is a "True Son" who was a star player for the program and assistant coach in its hay days. But this has all been a spectacular disaster. When you hire a coach in college basketball, for me, the minimum is four years. By that time, no matter the hiring circumstances, his first recruiting class has gone through the program or is entering their senior year. The coach's imprint is firmly there. At a place like Mizzou, that should mean an NCAA tourney bid at the very least.
If you were to give Anderson a third year, it would come with the caveat that the team has to be playing in some kind of postseason tournament beyond the SEC Tournament to bring him back for a fourth season. If that weren't attained, then it Rhoads could move on from Anderson with very little controversy.
But, the matter at hand is this season. To me, there's only one reason you fire Anderson. And that is to bring in Lorenzo Romar. I do not believe Romar is a great coach; he might be running out of time at his current spot in Washington. But Romar possesses one key element that is prudent to Mizzou basketball. He is the Godfather of perhaps the most important recruit in the program's history in Michael Porter Jr.
Porter, one of the top players in the 2017 class, has no reason to consider Mizzou other than the fact he's from Columbia. However, there's much more there. His aunt is Robin Pingeton, the Mizzou women's coach. His dad is an assistant to her. His two sisters play for her. His family is tight-knit and I'm sure he'd love nothing more than a reason to stay home.
But Mizzou hasn't offered it. The Tigers are really bad, and for a kid who is a sure-fire one-and-done, lottery pick, he's not going to offer his brief services to a lost cause. Porter is already considering Washington because Romar is his Godfather. Have his Godfather be the next coach of Mizzou, it might be a lock that you get a transcendent talent, albeit for just one season. But the ripple effect of that is huge, considering Porter is just a junior now. Other big-name recruits, namely Trae Young, could follow. And Porter's talented younger brother is already committed to Romar and Washington. It's the type of move, just by sheer virtuosity, could change the landscape of Mizzou hoops in an instant.
If Romar is not the guy, or if it doesn't work out, however, then there is no move to make. Mizzou is an undesirable job at the moment. It's a place that's lacked stability for sometime now. Maybe Anderson isn't the guy, but the program owes it to itself to find out if that's the case.
One more year, however miserable it might turn out to be, is the move. If Anderson fails, then Rhoads needs to open up the check book and make a splash hire and no-one would begrudge him for being too hasty.
Rhoads, however, could have other ideas.
Which brings us to head coach Kim Anderson, who has been at the helm for perhaps the worst two-year stretch in Mizzou basketball history. To write that is not unfair, to write it without context is. Anderson took over a program in terrible shape that became worse when the final blow of the Frank Haith era reared its ugly head midway through this season. But still, starting your career as a Division-I head coach with a 19-44 mark does little to curry favor within the athletic department or the fanbase.
New athletic director Mack Rhoads has an unenviable task ahead of him. He didn't hire Anderson. The program, by all intents and purposes, is a mess. Yet, there is smidgen of promise ahead. The Tigers had the 13th youngest team in the country and their best players are freshmen. Point guard Terrence Phillips is a gamer and will most certainly be a good player; he was three assists short of the program's first triple-double Saturday night. Fellow freshman Kevin Puryear was the team's leading scorer and only player who averaged double figures this year (holy crap that's bad). He offers the potential for a tremendous four-year player. But should Anderson be there for the ride?
From an aesthetics standpoint, Mizzou hoops the past two seasons has been something its fans have had to endure. They don't do anything that conjures up feelings of a team that is well coached. Their ball movement would make Swaggy P blush. Their outside shooting is so bad, if Mark Cuban had any vested interest in the game he'd lobby for the three-point line to be move in. And their transition defense is like watching them play a game of musical chairs. But then again, how much of that is due to the fact it is a young, relatively untalented team that is facing a better opposition almost every night?
Again, I don't envy Rhoads. Anderson is a "True Son" who was a star player for the program and assistant coach in its hay days. But this has all been a spectacular disaster. When you hire a coach in college basketball, for me, the minimum is four years. By that time, no matter the hiring circumstances, his first recruiting class has gone through the program or is entering their senior year. The coach's imprint is firmly there. At a place like Mizzou, that should mean an NCAA tourney bid at the very least.
If you were to give Anderson a third year, it would come with the caveat that the team has to be playing in some kind of postseason tournament beyond the SEC Tournament to bring him back for a fourth season. If that weren't attained, then it Rhoads could move on from Anderson with very little controversy.
But, the matter at hand is this season. To me, there's only one reason you fire Anderson. And that is to bring in Lorenzo Romar. I do not believe Romar is a great coach; he might be running out of time at his current spot in Washington. But Romar possesses one key element that is prudent to Mizzou basketball. He is the Godfather of perhaps the most important recruit in the program's history in Michael Porter Jr.
Porter, one of the top players in the 2017 class, has no reason to consider Mizzou other than the fact he's from Columbia. However, there's much more there. His aunt is Robin Pingeton, the Mizzou women's coach. His dad is an assistant to her. His two sisters play for her. His family is tight-knit and I'm sure he'd love nothing more than a reason to stay home.
But Mizzou hasn't offered it. The Tigers are really bad, and for a kid who is a sure-fire one-and-done, lottery pick, he's not going to offer his brief services to a lost cause. Porter is already considering Washington because Romar is his Godfather. Have his Godfather be the next coach of Mizzou, it might be a lock that you get a transcendent talent, albeit for just one season. But the ripple effect of that is huge, considering Porter is just a junior now. Other big-name recruits, namely Trae Young, could follow. And Porter's talented younger brother is already committed to Romar and Washington. It's the type of move, just by sheer virtuosity, could change the landscape of Mizzou hoops in an instant.
If Romar is not the guy, or if it doesn't work out, however, then there is no move to make. Mizzou is an undesirable job at the moment. It's a place that's lacked stability for sometime now. Maybe Anderson isn't the guy, but the program owes it to itself to find out if that's the case.
One more year, however miserable it might turn out to be, is the move. If Anderson fails, then Rhoads needs to open up the check book and make a splash hire and no-one would begrudge him for being too hasty.
Rhoads, however, could have other ideas.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Royals going for it all with Cueto trade
The Kansas City Royals acquired a much-needed asset in frontline starting pitcher Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday. It's a boon to the Royals' chances to repeat at American League champions and win their first World Series since 1985.
However, in the modern landscape of Major League Baseball, the more prudent question in deals such as these seems to be, who did you give up? In this particular deal, the Royals gave up a trio of left-handed pitchers in 24-year old John Lamb, 22-year old Brandon Finnegan and 22-year old Cody Reed. Lamb, as of now, is the key piece to the deal as he's posted dazzling numbers in AAA in what has been a rejuvenating year for him as a prospect after a UCL tear and the subsequent Tommy John surgery that followed railroaded his status as a top-flight prospect. He's the most ready of the three to slot into a big-league rotation. Finnegan will forever go down in Royals lore for his incredible postseason performance, most notably his 2 1/3 innings of relief in the Wild Card game against the A's. However, it's murky whether or not he projects as a valuable starting pitcher, as he has yet to be used as anything other than a reliever in the pros. Reed is considered the player with the most upside here. He was promoted to AA-Northwest Arkansas after a stellar couple months in High-A Wilmington. Though, it's well documented that Wilmington is a pitcher's haven and many Royals prospects — some good, some bad — have had ogles of success there.
It's a decent haul for the Reds and it's my opinion that both teams make out well here.
I find myself amazed nowadays though how so much of the conversation surrounding these deals is rife with trepidation from analysts and fans about giving up "too much" in the way of prospects. As is the case in many walks of life, which sports is just as proved to, there's been an overcorrection in the way we value prospects.
As recent as fifteen years ago it was commonplace for front offices to make trades for established players without regard for the prospects in which it was giving up. Just shipping away loads of potentially valuable future pieces for a rental. Sabermetricians and forward thinking baseball folks rightfully criticized these moves at the time, but they were mostly on an island, as very few fans placed high value on their team's farm system. There's more data than ever now and front offices are much smarter in the way they operate, thus the mainstream media is much smarter in the way they evaluate and in turn the fans are much more educated in the way they react.
This is why I was inundated by friends and overwhelmed while perusing social media at the amount of Royals fans who were terrified they gave away too much for Cueto. One friend listed the possibility that Lamb, Finnegan and Reed could "all be pretty good pitchers." The Reds wouldn't have made the trade if they didn't think that was a possibility as well.
Seemingly every trade nowadays has to be won or lost, which is why the knee-jerk reaction from fans seems to accompany every trade involving prospects. Prospects have become such a delicacy that people often forget how frequently they flop. You can't build a team solely off of prospects, because prospects, especially pitching prospects, will break your heart. Break. Your. Heart. The Royals have as much experience as any in this department. So their seeming departure from coveting them as potential building blocks to stockpiling and using them as trade pieces to acquire top-level talent to add to a championship-caliber team has been refreshing.
The bottom line is this: The Royals acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball and did so without surrendering any of their perceived top three prospects. They addressed what is, really, their only weakness to this point of the season in the starting rotation. They did not need Cueto to make the playoffs, or really even to win the AL Central, which they now lead by eight games (largest lead since 1980). But they did need him to bolster their chances to win a championship.
Anyone regretting the "The Trade" back in 2013 that netted James Shields and Wade Davis — two key pieces on a team that brought KC its first playoff appearance since 1985 and within one game (one base) of a World Series title? And if Cueto helps pitch the Royals to a title this year no one will or should care what becomes of Lamb, Finnegan and Reed.
Flags fly forever. And Dayton Moore struck while the iron was piping hot. For that, he should be lauded.
However, in the modern landscape of Major League Baseball, the more prudent question in deals such as these seems to be, who did you give up? In this particular deal, the Royals gave up a trio of left-handed pitchers in 24-year old John Lamb, 22-year old Brandon Finnegan and 22-year old Cody Reed. Lamb, as of now, is the key piece to the deal as he's posted dazzling numbers in AAA in what has been a rejuvenating year for him as a prospect after a UCL tear and the subsequent Tommy John surgery that followed railroaded his status as a top-flight prospect. He's the most ready of the three to slot into a big-league rotation. Finnegan will forever go down in Royals lore for his incredible postseason performance, most notably his 2 1/3 innings of relief in the Wild Card game against the A's. However, it's murky whether or not he projects as a valuable starting pitcher, as he has yet to be used as anything other than a reliever in the pros. Reed is considered the player with the most upside here. He was promoted to AA-Northwest Arkansas after a stellar couple months in High-A Wilmington. Though, it's well documented that Wilmington is a pitcher's haven and many Royals prospects — some good, some bad — have had ogles of success there.
It's a decent haul for the Reds and it's my opinion that both teams make out well here.
I find myself amazed nowadays though how so much of the conversation surrounding these deals is rife with trepidation from analysts and fans about giving up "too much" in the way of prospects. As is the case in many walks of life, which sports is just as proved to, there's been an overcorrection in the way we value prospects.
As recent as fifteen years ago it was commonplace for front offices to make trades for established players without regard for the prospects in which it was giving up. Just shipping away loads of potentially valuable future pieces for a rental. Sabermetricians and forward thinking baseball folks rightfully criticized these moves at the time, but they were mostly on an island, as very few fans placed high value on their team's farm system. There's more data than ever now and front offices are much smarter in the way they operate, thus the mainstream media is much smarter in the way they evaluate and in turn the fans are much more educated in the way they react.
This is why I was inundated by friends and overwhelmed while perusing social media at the amount of Royals fans who were terrified they gave away too much for Cueto. One friend listed the possibility that Lamb, Finnegan and Reed could "all be pretty good pitchers." The Reds wouldn't have made the trade if they didn't think that was a possibility as well.
Seemingly every trade nowadays has to be won or lost, which is why the knee-jerk reaction from fans seems to accompany every trade involving prospects. Prospects have become such a delicacy that people often forget how frequently they flop. You can't build a team solely off of prospects, because prospects, especially pitching prospects, will break your heart. Break. Your. Heart. The Royals have as much experience as any in this department. So their seeming departure from coveting them as potential building blocks to stockpiling and using them as trade pieces to acquire top-level talent to add to a championship-caliber team has been refreshing.
The bottom line is this: The Royals acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball and did so without surrendering any of their perceived top three prospects. They addressed what is, really, their only weakness to this point of the season in the starting rotation. They did not need Cueto to make the playoffs, or really even to win the AL Central, which they now lead by eight games (largest lead since 1980). But they did need him to bolster their chances to win a championship.
Anyone regretting the "The Trade" back in 2013 that netted James Shields and Wade Davis — two key pieces on a team that brought KC its first playoff appearance since 1985 and within one game (one base) of a World Series title? And if Cueto helps pitch the Royals to a title this year no one will or should care what becomes of Lamb, Finnegan and Reed.
Flags fly forever. And Dayton Moore struck while the iron was piping hot. For that, he should be lauded.
Friday, March 27, 2015
Sweet 16 Observations
The first four games of the Sweet 16 got underway Thursday night. All the higher seeds advanced, but there was certainly some drama involved. It sets up two very desirable Elite Eight match ups Saturday night. But first, lets see how we arrived there.
Notre Dame (3) vs. Wichita State (7): Notre Dame set the tone in the opening five minutes. The Irish ran their offense to near perfection and jumped out to a double-digit lead against the Shockers. Wichita State, to the surprise of no one, did not go away and cut the Notre Dame lead to 33-30 at halftime. The Shockers then grabbed the lead at 38-37 five minutes into the second half. Then, boom. Notre Dame put on an offensive display that was a pleasure to witness. They got buckets in every which way; splashing open threes, layups off backdoor cuts, alley-oops, seriously, whatever way they wanted it to a clip of 75 percent in the second half. They dismantled a Wichita State defense that ranks 16th in KenPom's AdjD (adjusted defensive efficiency) on their way to a 20-point lead, ultimately winning 81-70. Notre Dame reminds me so much of the 2012 Missouri team — the similarities are everywhere. They aren't big, they only go seven deep and they often play a four-guard lineup that asks 6-foot-5 senior guard Kim English, err Pat Connaughton, to guard the four. Yet, they play beautiful, team-oriented offensive basketball that is so difficult to slow down. Their passing and movement off the ball creates so many good looks and they're all good shooters who knock down the majority of those open looks. Mizzou ranked No. 1 in AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) in 2012, slightly better than Notre Dame, who sits at No. 3 in the country, but the teams are mirror images of each other. The difference is Notre Dame survived its first-round scare vs. 14-seed Northeastern. Mizzou, well, moving right along...This is the only team in the Midwest Region, and maybe the country, who has a shot to take down Kentucky. More on that later.
Wisconsin (1) vs. North Carolina (4): Outside of Kentucky, North Carolina is as talented as any other team in the country. Consistency has always been the issue with this squad. I don't know exactly why, but for some reason the pieces just never seemed to properly fit. On Thursday, however, the Tar Heels played splendid for 30-plus minutes and had Wisconsin on the ropes for much of the contest, but the game flipped just under the seven-minute mark. North Carolina led 60-56, then, in a somewhat shocking development, the pace picked up to the Tar Heels' favor, yet it was Wisconsin who was ultimately the beneficiary. The Badgers sprung a quick 9-0 run in a minute-thirty to take a five-point lead and never relinquished it en route to a 79-72 win and sneaky cover (-6.5!). Wisconsin has maybe my favorite non-Kentucky player in the tournament in 6-foot-9 junior Sam Dekker. The dude became a legend in the offseason when he balled out at LeBron's camp. And though he showed flashes of brilliance this season, he rarely put together complete games. He put together a complete game in this one, scoring a season-high 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go along with 10 boards. He got to the rim at will against a really good defender in Carolina's JP Tokoto. I picked Arizona to get to the Final Four, but if Dekker plays like he did tonight, Wisconsin is headed there for the second year in a row.
Kentucky (1) vs. West Virginia (5): There's really not much to say about this game other than, "are you happy West Virginia?" You just fed a well-rested giant two Red Bulls with your smack talk before the game. You can't beat Kentucky unless you believe you can, obviously. But don't go on Twitter and straight up predict you're going to win the game. This Wildcats team is historically awesome and it's the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16, they were going to be ready to play. But there's no need to add fuel to the fire, because then, well, then you get beat 79-38 and leave thinking it could have been worse. Daxter Miles Jr., who fired the pre-game shots, was scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting in 19 minutes. Bro, come on. When Kentucky is laser-focused and noticeably playing with a chip on their shoulder, there is not a team in the country capable of beating them. Honestly, there's not a team in the country capable of challenging them. How you beat Kentucky is by staying quiet beforehand, knock down shots on offense (preferably threes) and make them knock down threes against you. If you do that and get the game under five minutes with a lead or within striking distance, anything can happen. The pressure is all on them and they are human, I think. There's a handful of teams who played Kentucky well. The two who nearly had them beat were Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who both fell in overtime — two for A&M. Those were the first two games of the SEC slate and the Wildcats were feeling themselves after cake-walking through the non-conference slate. They got surprised by both opponents and barely survived against a pair of mediocre teams. That's essentially the recipe: sneak up on them, hit lots of outside shots, force them to take lots of outside shots and pray they cave under the weight of insane expectations in the closing minutes. Good luck (Taken voice).
Arizona (2) vs. Xavier (6): Xavier's birthright is the Sweet 16. Seriously, these guys are always in the freaking Sweet 16. Usually it's due to a big upset in the other first-round game opposite of them. But, credit to them, the Musketeers came out and gave an Arizona team, who had steamrolled seemingly everyone the past month, everything it wanted and then some. I'm not exactly sure how the Wildcats managed to win this one actually. Xavier's 1-3-1 zone perplexed Arizona throughout the night and stymied its offensive attack up until the final four minutes of the game basically. Xavier executed its game plan to perfection and glorious 6-foot-10 big fella Matt Stainbrook, Rec-Specs and all, controlled the paint for the better part of the contest against the best rim-protecting team outside of Kentucky. Xavier's outside shooting is what was ultimately its undoing, as the Musketeers went 3 of 17 from the perimeter. Had they managed to knock down a few more shots along the way as Chris Mack was x'ing and o'ing the crap out of his former mentor Sean Miller's boys, they would've had a much more threatening lead in the closing minutes. As it were, the lead never swelled past four points under 10 minutes and TJ McConnell woke up and took over the game for Arizona. The Wildcats really didn't play all that well and still managed to get through to the Elite Eight. It's what this tournament is all about: survive and advance. Eventually though, you run into a team where you can't play a below-average game and still make it to the next round. Saturday against Wisconsin is when that begins. I can't wait.
Friday Night at the Sweet 16
Gonzaga (2) vs. UCLA (11): Gonzaga flexed its muscle on the interior throughout the night. UCLA's lone hope in this ball game was Bryce Alford having another preposterously good shooting night from the perimeter — he was 3 of 11 from the field and 2 of 6 from three. Prezemik Karnowski, the Zags' 6-11 big man from Poland had 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting and grabbed four offensive rebounds to spearhead a dominant effort in that category. In its 74-62 victory, the only precarious position Gonzaga faced was the opening minutes of the second half when UCLA cut its lead to 35-34. The Zags called timeout and then went on a 12-0 run the next five minutes. UCLA was never again within single digits. The Bruins, as they did last year, were the beneficiary of an extremely fortuitous opening-weekend draw and a bit of good luck. After winning on maybe the whackiest play ever — a goaltend on an desperation 3-ponter — in the opening round against SMU, they faced 14-seed UAB, who upset Iowa State, to get to the Sweet 16. To its credit, UCLA took advantage, but the Bruins ran into a legitimate championship contender in Gonzaga and this game felt like a formality.
Louisville (4) vs. NC State (8): This was the Montrezl Harrel and Terry Rozier show. Louisville's dynamic inside-out duo flexed their collective NBA-level brass and took over this contest in the second half. Surprisingly, it was Anton Gill who sparked the Cards' decisive run. Louisville trailed 54-53 with six minutes left and Gill made a jumper and a three on back-to-back possessions to give the Cards a lead they would not relinquish. Rozier scored eight of his 17 points in the closing four minutes and Harrell had a game-high 24 points. NC State once again played a game amid a tournament run that had you wondering how in the hell they lost 13 games in the regular season. No matter how routinely mediocre the Wolfpack are November-February under Mark Gottfried, it appears they'll always have March, which I imagine most programs would take.
Duke (1) vs. Utah (5): Utah had a fantastic game plan and despite a few questionable foul calls, including one that forced Delon Wright to sit for a crucial juncture, it played Duke about as well as could be hoped for. Justise Winslow, who is skyrocketing up draft boards this tournament, took over the game in the second half, particularly the middle portion, which allowed Duke to extend its lead to double digits. Utah made a decent late push, but ultimately, in the most amazing or heartbreaking (depending on which side you had) Vegas finish ever, the Blue Devils covered a -5.5 spread after the officials went back to review a foul call after time had expired (it was totally a foul). Players were walking off the court and set to change hands and bettors who had the favorite likely exploded as the refs determined a foul had occurred with a second left. Tyus Jones stepped to the line and hit one of two free throws and those who took the points spontaneously combusted, sources say.
Oklahoma (3) vs. Michigan State (7): Farewell, Big 12. The consensus best conference in the country did not have a single team advance to the Elite Eight and went just 5-7 despite having seven teams in the tourney. The Big 12 love fest permeated throughout the national media all season, which was unfounded given their success in the non-conference and their wildly entertaining conference games. However, I was never much of a believer in the league. Don't get me wrong, I thought they had the most depth, but I surmised that there were no great or even really good teams in the league. My reasoning was simply rooted in the fact that Kansas, who had its biggest combination of talent deficiency and experience that I can remember under Bill Self, navigated through the league for an outright title. Iowa State, who I felt was the second-best team in the conference, is incredibly adept offensively but equally inept defensively, which isn't a great recipe come tourney time. While many viewers were transfixed by the ultra-competitive nature of the games, touting league strength, I felt like it was simply a byproduct of a lot of parity with a league bereft of any elite teams. Back in mid-February when I had the opportunity to have lunch with Reid Forgrave, a fantastic college basketball writer for Fox Sports who was of the many touting the Big 12 as the unquestionable top conference, I stated my claim for the ACC being better and posed to him this question: When the bracket is released in March, which Big 12 team do you have going to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight? Reid paused, perhaps having never considered this far-away scenario, before agreeing that there wasn't a Final Four team in the conference. Anyway, I could spend at least 1,000 more words on this topic and the Big 12's overrated hoops history in general given Mizzou's recent affiliation, but alas.
All said, Oklahoma was much better than maybe I gave them credit for. They didn't win the regular-season title or tourney title, but I think they might have been the best team in the league. I expected Michigan State, who I picked to come out of the East Region, to roll by the Sooners. For much of this game, it felt like Oklahoma would do that very thing to Sparty. Then, Travis Trice absolutely took over. He scored a game-high 24 points and made clutch play after clutch play, including a pair of game-sealing free throws, to advance Tom Izzo and MSU to yet another Elite Eight. Basically it boils down to this, Lon Kruger, and most other college basketball coaches who dare step to Sparty in March: TOM IZZO IS IN AND YOU'RE FUCKING OUT.
Notre Dame (3) vs. Wichita State (7): Notre Dame set the tone in the opening five minutes. The Irish ran their offense to near perfection and jumped out to a double-digit lead against the Shockers. Wichita State, to the surprise of no one, did not go away and cut the Notre Dame lead to 33-30 at halftime. The Shockers then grabbed the lead at 38-37 five minutes into the second half. Then, boom. Notre Dame put on an offensive display that was a pleasure to witness. They got buckets in every which way; splashing open threes, layups off backdoor cuts, alley-oops, seriously, whatever way they wanted it to a clip of 75 percent in the second half. They dismantled a Wichita State defense that ranks 16th in KenPom's AdjD (adjusted defensive efficiency) on their way to a 20-point lead, ultimately winning 81-70. Notre Dame reminds me so much of the 2012 Missouri team — the similarities are everywhere. They aren't big, they only go seven deep and they often play a four-guard lineup that asks 6-foot-5 senior guard Kim English, err Pat Connaughton, to guard the four. Yet, they play beautiful, team-oriented offensive basketball that is so difficult to slow down. Their passing and movement off the ball creates so many good looks and they're all good shooters who knock down the majority of those open looks. Mizzou ranked No. 1 in AdjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) in 2012, slightly better than Notre Dame, who sits at No. 3 in the country, but the teams are mirror images of each other. The difference is Notre Dame survived its first-round scare vs. 14-seed Northeastern. Mizzou, well, moving right along...This is the only team in the Midwest Region, and maybe the country, who has a shot to take down Kentucky. More on that later.
Wisconsin (1) vs. North Carolina (4): Outside of Kentucky, North Carolina is as talented as any other team in the country. Consistency has always been the issue with this squad. I don't know exactly why, but for some reason the pieces just never seemed to properly fit. On Thursday, however, the Tar Heels played splendid for 30-plus minutes and had Wisconsin on the ropes for much of the contest, but the game flipped just under the seven-minute mark. North Carolina led 60-56, then, in a somewhat shocking development, the pace picked up to the Tar Heels' favor, yet it was Wisconsin who was ultimately the beneficiary. The Badgers sprung a quick 9-0 run in a minute-thirty to take a five-point lead and never relinquished it en route to a 79-72 win and sneaky cover (-6.5!). Wisconsin has maybe my favorite non-Kentucky player in the tournament in 6-foot-9 junior Sam Dekker. The dude became a legend in the offseason when he balled out at LeBron's camp. And though he showed flashes of brilliance this season, he rarely put together complete games. He put together a complete game in this one, scoring a season-high 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go along with 10 boards. He got to the rim at will against a really good defender in Carolina's JP Tokoto. I picked Arizona to get to the Final Four, but if Dekker plays like he did tonight, Wisconsin is headed there for the second year in a row.
Kentucky (1) vs. West Virginia (5): There's really not much to say about this game other than, "are you happy West Virginia?" You just fed a well-rested giant two Red Bulls with your smack talk before the game. You can't beat Kentucky unless you believe you can, obviously. But don't go on Twitter and straight up predict you're going to win the game. This Wildcats team is historically awesome and it's the NCAA Tournament, the Sweet 16, they were going to be ready to play. But there's no need to add fuel to the fire, because then, well, then you get beat 79-38 and leave thinking it could have been worse. Daxter Miles Jr., who fired the pre-game shots, was scoreless on 0-for-3 shooting in 19 minutes. Bro, come on. When Kentucky is laser-focused and noticeably playing with a chip on their shoulder, there is not a team in the country capable of beating them. Honestly, there's not a team in the country capable of challenging them. How you beat Kentucky is by staying quiet beforehand, knock down shots on offense (preferably threes) and make them knock down threes against you. If you do that and get the game under five minutes with a lead or within striking distance, anything can happen. The pressure is all on them and they are human, I think. There's a handful of teams who played Kentucky well. The two who nearly had them beat were Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who both fell in overtime — two for A&M. Those were the first two games of the SEC slate and the Wildcats were feeling themselves after cake-walking through the non-conference slate. They got surprised by both opponents and barely survived against a pair of mediocre teams. That's essentially the recipe: sneak up on them, hit lots of outside shots, force them to take lots of outside shots and pray they cave under the weight of insane expectations in the closing minutes. Good luck (Taken voice).
Arizona (2) vs. Xavier (6): Xavier's birthright is the Sweet 16. Seriously, these guys are always in the freaking Sweet 16. Usually it's due to a big upset in the other first-round game opposite of them. But, credit to them, the Musketeers came out and gave an Arizona team, who had steamrolled seemingly everyone the past month, everything it wanted and then some. I'm not exactly sure how the Wildcats managed to win this one actually. Xavier's 1-3-1 zone perplexed Arizona throughout the night and stymied its offensive attack up until the final four minutes of the game basically. Xavier executed its game plan to perfection and glorious 6-foot-10 big fella Matt Stainbrook, Rec-Specs and all, controlled the paint for the better part of the contest against the best rim-protecting team outside of Kentucky. Xavier's outside shooting is what was ultimately its undoing, as the Musketeers went 3 of 17 from the perimeter. Had they managed to knock down a few more shots along the way as Chris Mack was x'ing and o'ing the crap out of his former mentor Sean Miller's boys, they would've had a much more threatening lead in the closing minutes. As it were, the lead never swelled past four points under 10 minutes and TJ McConnell woke up and took over the game for Arizona. The Wildcats really didn't play all that well and still managed to get through to the Elite Eight. It's what this tournament is all about: survive and advance. Eventually though, you run into a team where you can't play a below-average game and still make it to the next round. Saturday against Wisconsin is when that begins. I can't wait.
Friday Night at the Sweet 16
Gonzaga (2) vs. UCLA (11): Gonzaga flexed its muscle on the interior throughout the night. UCLA's lone hope in this ball game was Bryce Alford having another preposterously good shooting night from the perimeter — he was 3 of 11 from the field and 2 of 6 from three. Prezemik Karnowski, the Zags' 6-11 big man from Poland had 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting and grabbed four offensive rebounds to spearhead a dominant effort in that category. In its 74-62 victory, the only precarious position Gonzaga faced was the opening minutes of the second half when UCLA cut its lead to 35-34. The Zags called timeout and then went on a 12-0 run the next five minutes. UCLA was never again within single digits. The Bruins, as they did last year, were the beneficiary of an extremely fortuitous opening-weekend draw and a bit of good luck. After winning on maybe the whackiest play ever — a goaltend on an desperation 3-ponter — in the opening round against SMU, they faced 14-seed UAB, who upset Iowa State, to get to the Sweet 16. To its credit, UCLA took advantage, but the Bruins ran into a legitimate championship contender in Gonzaga and this game felt like a formality.
Louisville (4) vs. NC State (8): This was the Montrezl Harrel and Terry Rozier show. Louisville's dynamic inside-out duo flexed their collective NBA-level brass and took over this contest in the second half. Surprisingly, it was Anton Gill who sparked the Cards' decisive run. Louisville trailed 54-53 with six minutes left and Gill made a jumper and a three on back-to-back possessions to give the Cards a lead they would not relinquish. Rozier scored eight of his 17 points in the closing four minutes and Harrell had a game-high 24 points. NC State once again played a game amid a tournament run that had you wondering how in the hell they lost 13 games in the regular season. No matter how routinely mediocre the Wolfpack are November-February under Mark Gottfried, it appears they'll always have March, which I imagine most programs would take.
Duke (1) vs. Utah (5): Utah had a fantastic game plan and despite a few questionable foul calls, including one that forced Delon Wright to sit for a crucial juncture, it played Duke about as well as could be hoped for. Justise Winslow, who is skyrocketing up draft boards this tournament, took over the game in the second half, particularly the middle portion, which allowed Duke to extend its lead to double digits. Utah made a decent late push, but ultimately, in the most amazing or heartbreaking (depending on which side you had) Vegas finish ever, the Blue Devils covered a -5.5 spread after the officials went back to review a foul call after time had expired (it was totally a foul). Players were walking off the court and set to change hands and bettors who had the favorite likely exploded as the refs determined a foul had occurred with a second left. Tyus Jones stepped to the line and hit one of two free throws and those who took the points spontaneously combusted, sources say.
Oklahoma (3) vs. Michigan State (7): Farewell, Big 12. The consensus best conference in the country did not have a single team advance to the Elite Eight and went just 5-7 despite having seven teams in the tourney. The Big 12 love fest permeated throughout the national media all season, which was unfounded given their success in the non-conference and their wildly entertaining conference games. However, I was never much of a believer in the league. Don't get me wrong, I thought they had the most depth, but I surmised that there were no great or even really good teams in the league. My reasoning was simply rooted in the fact that Kansas, who had its biggest combination of talent deficiency and experience that I can remember under Bill Self, navigated through the league for an outright title. Iowa State, who I felt was the second-best team in the conference, is incredibly adept offensively but equally inept defensively, which isn't a great recipe come tourney time. While many viewers were transfixed by the ultra-competitive nature of the games, touting league strength, I felt like it was simply a byproduct of a lot of parity with a league bereft of any elite teams. Back in mid-February when I had the opportunity to have lunch with Reid Forgrave, a fantastic college basketball writer for Fox Sports who was of the many touting the Big 12 as the unquestionable top conference, I stated my claim for the ACC being better and posed to him this question: When the bracket is released in March, which Big 12 team do you have going to the Final Four, or even the Elite Eight? Reid paused, perhaps having never considered this far-away scenario, before agreeing that there wasn't a Final Four team in the conference. Anyway, I could spend at least 1,000 more words on this topic and the Big 12's overrated hoops history in general given Mizzou's recent affiliation, but alas.
All said, Oklahoma was much better than maybe I gave them credit for. They didn't win the regular-season title or tourney title, but I think they might have been the best team in the league. I expected Michigan State, who I picked to come out of the East Region, to roll by the Sooners. For much of this game, it felt like Oklahoma would do that very thing to Sparty. Then, Travis Trice absolutely took over. He scored a game-high 24 points and made clutch play after clutch play, including a pair of game-sealing free throws, to advance Tom Izzo and MSU to yet another Elite Eight. Basically it boils down to this, Lon Kruger, and most other college basketball coaches who dare step to Sparty in March: TOM IZZO IS IN AND YOU'RE FUCKING OUT.
Friday, December 12, 2014
On Mizzou basketball and "Trusting the Process"
Trust the Process
As a Royals fan, over the years I came to loathe the above idiom. As did other Royals fans. It became a running joke as General Manager Dayton Moore failed to assemble a playoff team his first seven years on the job and wasn't even close to doing so. All along, however, he echoed the same three words: Trust the Process.
Dayton, though luck certainly played a part and eight years is still an awful long time to put a playoff-caliber product on the field in baseball, did prove prophetic this past season. The Royals made the playoffs for the first time since 1985 and had a magical postseason run that ended one game short of winning the World Series. (Still hurts to type that sentence, two months later).
So what does any of this have to do with the University of Missouri basketball program? Well, trusting the process is just about all any fan of the team can do at this point. The program isn't at its nadir — that occurred in Quin Snyder's final season back in 2004 — but it is certainly in a valley of sorts.
Mike Anderson, who did a wonderful job taking a terrible mess left behind by Snyder and turning it into a respectable program once again, bolted for his roots at Arkansas at the end of the 2010-11 season. There was some obvious turmoil in Anderson's final year, as the team sputtered toward the finish line, despite a talented roster, and Anderson failed to recruit a single player in his final season. Given the fact there were seven juniors on the team, this created a bit of an issue for whomever the next head coach would be.
Athletic Director Mike Alden shocked everyone by hiring Frank Haith, he of a 129-101 record in seven years at the University of Miami (Fla.). It was a baffling hire. And Haith flipped the criticism quickly with an incredible first season in which the team went 30-4 in the regular season and won the Big 12 Tournament. Again, this was an extremely experienced team that had been built by Anderson, however, this particular group never flourished under Anderson the way they did in Haith's system.
Mizzou played its worst game of the season at the worst possible time, in the opening round against Norfolk State, losing in one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. All the good feelings toward Haith quickly dissipated. And what's more, the real uphill battle was ahead, as he had to maintain a winning program, due to the scrutiny of the hire and the credibility lost with the fan base after the Norfolk State loss.
Haith could not afford to build with freshmen and take the unavoidable lumps for a season or two. He had neither the time nor the equity. He had to win now. So, he built with transfers and JUCO's, sprinkling in some under-the-radar freshmen.
This is not how you build a program.
Haith was on borrowed time after he failed to make the tournament last season. The fan base didn't like what they had seen and were already sick of all the transfers. There was serious disconnect between the fan base and the team. Haith, despite accumulating a good recruiting class last season, which followed up his first real recruiting class, which was also good, saw the writing on the wall. He needed to have a good year or he was gone. So, he stayed ahead of the whip and bolted to...Tulsa!? Yes, Tulsa.
Rumors of big fish like Greg Marshall, Ben Howland and Mick Cronin filled Twitter and the message boards as for who Mizzou would be targeting for its next coach. No one, absolutely no one, had Kim Anderson on their coaching list as a serious candidate. But, here we are.
The Anderson hire was met with more criticism than the Haith hire. Anderson is a Norm Stewart protege of sorts, so it pleased the old-school alumni crowd, I suppose. I did not like it. But was and am willing to give him his just time to build a program.
Anderson did a great job in assembling a talented assistant coaching staff around him in retaining ace recruiter Tim Fuller and adding former Hunnington Prep (W.V.) head coach Rob Fullford, who brought with him top-50 recruit Montaque Gill-Caesar. The staff also held onto Haith's best two recruits in top-35 forward Jakeenan Gant and top-100 shooting guard Namon Wright. But the roster lost more than 75 percent of its scoring from last season in Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson, Jabari Brown, who is in the D-League, and Earnest Ross, who should be on an NFL roster. Seriously, that guy is a monster.
This season was an inevitability. Mizzou, for all intents and purposes is really bad. The Tigers are 5-4 and have lost to UMKC at home and their five wins are: Valparaiso, Oral Roberts, Chaminade (D-2), SEMO and Elon.
At times, you see flashes of talent, but it's too sporadic. Gill-Caesar (Teki) has looked the best of the freshmen and appears to be the team's best player. Gant has yet to play due to some questions about his eligibility, but he would figure to help this team out significantly. Namon Wright can stroke it, but has too many freshmen moments. D'Angelo Allen has looked good in the small minutes that he's played and Tremaine Isabell appears to be a bit of a project, but he looks like a nice piece.
Of the sophomores, Jonathan Williams III is the clear centerpiece of this team down low. But he's way too inconsistent. At times he looks like a force on the glass and other times completely disinterested. He hit a few outside shots early in the season, which was maybe the worst thing for him, because now he thinks that's part of his repertoire. Spoiler alert: It's not. He needs to add bulk and focus on his craft in the low block, which is where this team needs him the most and where he can blossom. Once he's improved that facet of his game, the mid-range and 3-point shot is something he can certainly look to add in the next two seasons. Wes Clark was one of my favorite recruits when he came in last season. He is painfully enigmatic as a point guard. At times, he shows the ability to lead by distributing and also hitting a pull-up jumper or two when the offense appears stagnant. And then you have his final two minutes against Elon Thursday night, which was the worst extended stretch of basketball I've seen from one player in a long time. Missouri led Elon 70-61, and although the lead had slipped away, the Tigers were ahead by nine with 2:12 remaining.
The following is what the next two minutes looked like from Clark:
— Clark receives inbounds and proceeds to head toward the basket and attempt a twisting, well-defended layup with 32 seconds still left on the shot clock WITH A 9-POINT LEAD AND 2:12 REMAINING
— Clark commits a foul on Elon's Luke Eddy (get familiar with this name, what he does to Clark the next few possession is X-Rated). Eddy makes both free throws. 70-63. 2:02 left.
— Clark panics under the Elon full-court pressure and throws a somewhat ill-advised pass to Keith Shamburger at half court. Shamburger is ruled for an over-and-back violation as he never established himself on Elon side of the court where he received the ball. This is partly on Shamburger, no doubt, but Clark certainly could have seen where he was standing and only three seconds or so had come off the clock when Clark passed it.
— Clark plays off Eddy, who buries a 3-pointer to make it a 70-66 game with 1:41 left.
— Shamburger misses jumper on the other end. No blame to Clark here. Phew.
— Clark gets caught ball watching and loses Eddy, the team's best shooter, on a back screen. Eddy buries a wide open 3-pointer in the corner to make it a 70-69 game with 57 seconds left.
— Williams III is foul and hits both free throws. 72-69 with 47 seconds left.
— Clark gets caught under the basket and commits a touch foul on Kevin Blake, who easily hits the layup and goes to the line on the and-one. 72-71. 36 seconds left. That is Clark's fifth foul, so he's mercifully out of the game.
That, ladies and gentleman, is as bad of a stretch as you will ever see in a "high-level" basketball game. The fact it came in crunch time from the guy who is supposed to be the team's floor general and one of the few "veteran" leaders, is very concerning. It is also to be noted that Blake missed the free throw and after Clark left the game, the Tigers got two straight stops and hit four free throws to seal the game and eventually win 78-73.
Alas, this team has much bigger problems than Clark. There is some talent, albeit young, but real talent on this team and that will only improve when/if Gant is thrown into the mix. The real issue on this squad is its lack of any post play whatsoever. The Tigers have to trot out junior Ryan Rosburg and senior Keanu Post. Both are of absolutely no threat to catch the ball with their back to the basket and score. Anyone who has watched five minutes of Mizzou this season is fully aware of that. It makes it very difficult to score on a consistent basis when you can't rely on points in the paint. But it doesn't end there. Post and Rosburg also have a propensity to foul and foul a lot.
In five of the nine games this season, Post and Rosburg have failed to score more points than fouls committed. FIVE TIMES. That is abhorrent for an entire season, but five times in the first nine games? I don't have a word for that. These are those games:
Oklahoma: 1 foul, 0 points
UMKC: 4 fouls, 3 points
Elon: 3 fouls, 2 points
Purdue: 7 fouls, 4 points
SEMO: 4 fouls, 4 points
For the season the duo has committed 40 fouls and accumulated 52 points. This is what Mizzou has in the way of big men right now. And this is the biggest thing ailing the program currently. If you put Kentucky's backcourt (Version A or B) with this front line, it would still be a very bad team. You simply cannot win at even a marginal rate without some sort of semblance of low-post play.
The only solution in the interim is to give Post's minutes to D'Angelo Allen. That's exactly what happened against Elon, as Post reportedly asked out of the game after playing three minutes in the first half. He got his wish and was in warmups the entire second half. Allen played 21 minutes, scored 12 points and grabbed seven rebounds (four offensive). He's slightly undersized at 6-foot-7, but he's a significant upgrade over Post. When Gant returns, he should be seeing Rosburg's minutes. The kid tries and I would love to see him succeed, as he's a local kid, but he is a liability on the defensive end and provides nothing on the offensive end.
If I were Anderson, going forward I would roll with this starting five:
PG: Shamburger
SG: Wright
SF: Gill-Caesar
PF: Allen
C: JWIII
Once Gant returns, see what he can provide off the bench and work him into the front-court rotation, with an eye on him starting over Allen moving forward. You have Clark, Duece Bello and Isabell off the bench. Beyond that, I'd play Rosburg sparingly to give the front-court trio a breather. He can't play big minutes for this team. As for Post, I don't see what value there is in playing him at all. Anderson seems to have the same line of thinking, as Post has played a combined 15 minutes the past three games. And if he actually did ask out of the game against Elon, that should be the final straw. As cruel as it sounds, he's a hindrance to this basketball team and doesn't fit into the team's long-term plans, as he's gone after this season. His minutes, which don't appear to be valuable to him, should go to the youngsters.
In all likelihood, this team will be 6-7 heading into SEC play. The SEC isn't a great league, but Missouri might be the worst team this season. A reasonable goal for this team should be five wins in the conference. That would put them at 11-20, which is awful, but this season isn't about wins and losses. It's about establishing an identity and building a program. It would be great and would look prettier if they managed to go 8-10 and finished 14-17 overall, but there is absolutely no difference between the two.
I'm interested in how the team progresses throughout the season and what they look like by the end of it. Most Missouri fans will point to this season as an indictment of Anderson and how it was a mistake to hire him. And they may ultimately be right about the latter, but this season won't be the reason why. This team was destined to be bad. How the players develop and what happens beyond this season will determine Anderson's fate. He deserves at least four years to build.
For better or for worse, you'll know if he's the right guy after year four. You just have to sit back and trust the process.
As a Royals fan, over the years I came to loathe the above idiom. As did other Royals fans. It became a running joke as General Manager Dayton Moore failed to assemble a playoff team his first seven years on the job and wasn't even close to doing so. All along, however, he echoed the same three words: Trust the Process.
Dayton, though luck certainly played a part and eight years is still an awful long time to put a playoff-caliber product on the field in baseball, did prove prophetic this past season. The Royals made the playoffs for the first time since 1985 and had a magical postseason run that ended one game short of winning the World Series. (Still hurts to type that sentence, two months later).
So what does any of this have to do with the University of Missouri basketball program? Well, trusting the process is just about all any fan of the team can do at this point. The program isn't at its nadir — that occurred in Quin Snyder's final season back in 2004 — but it is certainly in a valley of sorts.
Mike Anderson, who did a wonderful job taking a terrible mess left behind by Snyder and turning it into a respectable program once again, bolted for his roots at Arkansas at the end of the 2010-11 season. There was some obvious turmoil in Anderson's final year, as the team sputtered toward the finish line, despite a talented roster, and Anderson failed to recruit a single player in his final season. Given the fact there were seven juniors on the team, this created a bit of an issue for whomever the next head coach would be.
Athletic Director Mike Alden shocked everyone by hiring Frank Haith, he of a 129-101 record in seven years at the University of Miami (Fla.). It was a baffling hire. And Haith flipped the criticism quickly with an incredible first season in which the team went 30-4 in the regular season and won the Big 12 Tournament. Again, this was an extremely experienced team that had been built by Anderson, however, this particular group never flourished under Anderson the way they did in Haith's system.
Mizzou played its worst game of the season at the worst possible time, in the opening round against Norfolk State, losing in one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. All the good feelings toward Haith quickly dissipated. And what's more, the real uphill battle was ahead, as he had to maintain a winning program, due to the scrutiny of the hire and the credibility lost with the fan base after the Norfolk State loss.
Haith could not afford to build with freshmen and take the unavoidable lumps for a season or two. He had neither the time nor the equity. He had to win now. So, he built with transfers and JUCO's, sprinkling in some under-the-radar freshmen.
This is not how you build a program.
Haith was on borrowed time after he failed to make the tournament last season. The fan base didn't like what they had seen and were already sick of all the transfers. There was serious disconnect between the fan base and the team. Haith, despite accumulating a good recruiting class last season, which followed up his first real recruiting class, which was also good, saw the writing on the wall. He needed to have a good year or he was gone. So, he stayed ahead of the whip and bolted to...Tulsa!? Yes, Tulsa.
Rumors of big fish like Greg Marshall, Ben Howland and Mick Cronin filled Twitter and the message boards as for who Mizzou would be targeting for its next coach. No one, absolutely no one, had Kim Anderson on their coaching list as a serious candidate. But, here we are.
The Anderson hire was met with more criticism than the Haith hire. Anderson is a Norm Stewart protege of sorts, so it pleased the old-school alumni crowd, I suppose. I did not like it. But was and am willing to give him his just time to build a program.
Anderson did a great job in assembling a talented assistant coaching staff around him in retaining ace recruiter Tim Fuller and adding former Hunnington Prep (W.V.) head coach Rob Fullford, who brought with him top-50 recruit Montaque Gill-Caesar. The staff also held onto Haith's best two recruits in top-35 forward Jakeenan Gant and top-100 shooting guard Namon Wright. But the roster lost more than 75 percent of its scoring from last season in Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson, Jabari Brown, who is in the D-League, and Earnest Ross, who should be on an NFL roster. Seriously, that guy is a monster.
This season was an inevitability. Mizzou, for all intents and purposes is really bad. The Tigers are 5-4 and have lost to UMKC at home and their five wins are: Valparaiso, Oral Roberts, Chaminade (D-2), SEMO and Elon.
At times, you see flashes of talent, but it's too sporadic. Gill-Caesar (Teki) has looked the best of the freshmen and appears to be the team's best player. Gant has yet to play due to some questions about his eligibility, but he would figure to help this team out significantly. Namon Wright can stroke it, but has too many freshmen moments. D'Angelo Allen has looked good in the small minutes that he's played and Tremaine Isabell appears to be a bit of a project, but he looks like a nice piece.
Of the sophomores, Jonathan Williams III is the clear centerpiece of this team down low. But he's way too inconsistent. At times he looks like a force on the glass and other times completely disinterested. He hit a few outside shots early in the season, which was maybe the worst thing for him, because now he thinks that's part of his repertoire. Spoiler alert: It's not. He needs to add bulk and focus on his craft in the low block, which is where this team needs him the most and where he can blossom. Once he's improved that facet of his game, the mid-range and 3-point shot is something he can certainly look to add in the next two seasons. Wes Clark was one of my favorite recruits when he came in last season. He is painfully enigmatic as a point guard. At times, he shows the ability to lead by distributing and also hitting a pull-up jumper or two when the offense appears stagnant. And then you have his final two minutes against Elon Thursday night, which was the worst extended stretch of basketball I've seen from one player in a long time. Missouri led Elon 70-61, and although the lead had slipped away, the Tigers were ahead by nine with 2:12 remaining.
The following is what the next two minutes looked like from Clark:
— Clark receives inbounds and proceeds to head toward the basket and attempt a twisting, well-defended layup with 32 seconds still left on the shot clock WITH A 9-POINT LEAD AND 2:12 REMAINING
— Clark commits a foul on Elon's Luke Eddy (get familiar with this name, what he does to Clark the next few possession is X-Rated). Eddy makes both free throws. 70-63. 2:02 left.
— Clark panics under the Elon full-court pressure and throws a somewhat ill-advised pass to Keith Shamburger at half court. Shamburger is ruled for an over-and-back violation as he never established himself on Elon side of the court where he received the ball. This is partly on Shamburger, no doubt, but Clark certainly could have seen where he was standing and only three seconds or so had come off the clock when Clark passed it.
— Clark plays off Eddy, who buries a 3-pointer to make it a 70-66 game with 1:41 left.
— Shamburger misses jumper on the other end. No blame to Clark here. Phew.
— Clark gets caught ball watching and loses Eddy, the team's best shooter, on a back screen. Eddy buries a wide open 3-pointer in the corner to make it a 70-69 game with 57 seconds left.
— Williams III is foul and hits both free throws. 72-69 with 47 seconds left.
— Clark gets caught under the basket and commits a touch foul on Kevin Blake, who easily hits the layup and goes to the line on the and-one. 72-71. 36 seconds left. That is Clark's fifth foul, so he's mercifully out of the game.
That, ladies and gentleman, is as bad of a stretch as you will ever see in a "high-level" basketball game. The fact it came in crunch time from the guy who is supposed to be the team's floor general and one of the few "veteran" leaders, is very concerning. It is also to be noted that Blake missed the free throw and after Clark left the game, the Tigers got two straight stops and hit four free throws to seal the game and eventually win 78-73.
Alas, this team has much bigger problems than Clark. There is some talent, albeit young, but real talent on this team and that will only improve when/if Gant is thrown into the mix. The real issue on this squad is its lack of any post play whatsoever. The Tigers have to trot out junior Ryan Rosburg and senior Keanu Post. Both are of absolutely no threat to catch the ball with their back to the basket and score. Anyone who has watched five minutes of Mizzou this season is fully aware of that. It makes it very difficult to score on a consistent basis when you can't rely on points in the paint. But it doesn't end there. Post and Rosburg also have a propensity to foul and foul a lot.
In five of the nine games this season, Post and Rosburg have failed to score more points than fouls committed. FIVE TIMES. That is abhorrent for an entire season, but five times in the first nine games? I don't have a word for that. These are those games:
Oklahoma: 1 foul, 0 points
UMKC: 4 fouls, 3 points
Elon: 3 fouls, 2 points
Purdue: 7 fouls, 4 points
SEMO: 4 fouls, 4 points
For the season the duo has committed 40 fouls and accumulated 52 points. This is what Mizzou has in the way of big men right now. And this is the biggest thing ailing the program currently. If you put Kentucky's backcourt (Version A or B) with this front line, it would still be a very bad team. You simply cannot win at even a marginal rate without some sort of semblance of low-post play.
The only solution in the interim is to give Post's minutes to D'Angelo Allen. That's exactly what happened against Elon, as Post reportedly asked out of the game after playing three minutes in the first half. He got his wish and was in warmups the entire second half. Allen played 21 minutes, scored 12 points and grabbed seven rebounds (four offensive). He's slightly undersized at 6-foot-7, but he's a significant upgrade over Post. When Gant returns, he should be seeing Rosburg's minutes. The kid tries and I would love to see him succeed, as he's a local kid, but he is a liability on the defensive end and provides nothing on the offensive end.
If I were Anderson, going forward I would roll with this starting five:
PG: Shamburger
SG: Wright
SF: Gill-Caesar
PF: Allen
C: JWIII
Once Gant returns, see what he can provide off the bench and work him into the front-court rotation, with an eye on him starting over Allen moving forward. You have Clark, Duece Bello and Isabell off the bench. Beyond that, I'd play Rosburg sparingly to give the front-court trio a breather. He can't play big minutes for this team. As for Post, I don't see what value there is in playing him at all. Anderson seems to have the same line of thinking, as Post has played a combined 15 minutes the past three games. And if he actually did ask out of the game against Elon, that should be the final straw. As cruel as it sounds, he's a hindrance to this basketball team and doesn't fit into the team's long-term plans, as he's gone after this season. His minutes, which don't appear to be valuable to him, should go to the youngsters.
In all likelihood, this team will be 6-7 heading into SEC play. The SEC isn't a great league, but Missouri might be the worst team this season. A reasonable goal for this team should be five wins in the conference. That would put them at 11-20, which is awful, but this season isn't about wins and losses. It's about establishing an identity and building a program. It would be great and would look prettier if they managed to go 8-10 and finished 14-17 overall, but there is absolutely no difference between the two.
I'm interested in how the team progresses throughout the season and what they look like by the end of it. Most Missouri fans will point to this season as an indictment of Anderson and how it was a mistake to hire him. And they may ultimately be right about the latter, but this season won't be the reason why. This team was destined to be bad. How the players develop and what happens beyond this season will determine Anderson's fate. He deserves at least four years to build.
For better or for worse, you'll know if he's the right guy after year four. You just have to sit back and trust the process.
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