Thanks to a 22-10 stretch that began in June, the Royals (44-43) are right back in the thick of the American League playoff race. They are three games behind the Indians (47-40) in the Central and just a 1 1/2 behind the Rays for the second wild card spot at the All-Star Break.
The Royals begin the second half with a 10-game home stand beginning Friday with an important three-game series at Kauffman Stadium against a fellow wild-card contender in the Rangers. Ahead of that, I have five bold predictions for the Royals' second half.
1) Alex Gordon Will Have a Big Second Half
It's no secret, the team's franchise player, fan favorite, and most expensive salary on the roster has been a bust in the first year-and-a-half of his four-year contract. While the rest of the Royals' core is performing fairly well (Lorenzo Cain 2.7 bWAR; Eric Hosmer 2.2 bWAR; Sal Perez 1.9 bWAR; Mike Moustakas 1.3 bWAR) Gordon has been one of the worst hitters in baseball through the first half, posting just a .592 OPS. He has, however, maintained his excellent defense in left field, which like Alcides Escobar, has made him somewhat playable.
Call me stubborn, but I refuse to believe Gordon has fallen off a cliff offensively at age 33. Gordon hit .184/.268/.218 in April and .164/.307/.192 in May. The best explanation for that dreadful production was his sudden propensity to hit the ball on the ground. He had a 53.2 percent groundball rate to that point; by far the highest of his career. Gordon has provided some reason for optimism since. While he's still not seeing his batting average improve (.195 for the season) he's hit for more pop lately, as he had a .731 OPS in June. Look no further than his lowered groundball rate, which now sits at 44.8 percent. Still a career high, but much closer in line with his career performance.
Despite cutting down on his groundball rate, his BABIP still remains incredibly low at .234. Some of that is bad luck, while some of it is still his awful early-season performance baked in. Gordon is still walking at a decent rate (9%) and he's cut down on his strikeouts significantly from last season.
The All-Star break is a chance for players to step away from the game mentally and physically to recharge their batteries and prepare for the dog days of summer with what feels like a clean slate. Gordon feels like the guy who could benefit the most from this and he carried some positive momentum into the break. Gordon has too much of a track record and has too many core (literally and figuratively-- ABS BABY!) abilities to be mired in failure. I expect to see a big second half from A1, which would obviously be incredibly beneficial for the Royals.
2) Jorge Soler Will Make a Positive Impact
The Wade Davis-for-Jorge Soler trade has been harshly criticized through the first half of the season. Davis has been back to his old self as a reliever while Soler spent the better part of the first half in AAA and hasn't hit when he's been up with the big club. The disappointment of Soler has been largely cancelled out by the surprise emergence of Jorge Bonifacio, who has a .770 OPS and has performed admirably at the top of the lineup. Soler has a .537 OPS but that's in just 99 plate appearances. Three seasons ago as a 22-year old rookie for the Cubs, in 97 plate appearances he had a .903 OPS. Suffice to say, the real Soler lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Because of Bonifacio's steady play, Soler has been reduced to a platoon player, which isn't where many saw him before the season, but it doesn't mean he can't still be valuable.
If used properly, Soler should garner somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 plate appearances this season. He can be used at DH, Brandon Moss isn't hitting either. He can spell Bonifacio and he can give Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain time off in the outfield; they both will need it. And he can be a dangerous bat off the bench in late-game situations. For all the Royals have been good at over the course of this four-year run, they've never had a power bat like Soler on the bench. A guy who can change the game with one swing, but also posesses the plate discipline to draw a walk. It's year one of what will likely be four years for Soler in Kansas City and so far he's underwhelmed. That doesn't mean he can't add significant value the rest of the way as he finds his role. I'm betting he provides a few more smiles for fans the second half of the season.
3) Dayton Moore will make a significant trade
OK, this one isn't exactly a bold stance. Obviously, Moore will add a piece, or two, to this roster. Most likely in the form of a starting pitcher and reliever, but another bat could be necessary as well. Moore doesn't have the farm system to pull off a Johnny Cueto or Ben Zobrist-type deal, unless he's willing to part ways with Raul Mondesi, which by all indications, he is not. I predict what the Royals add will fall somewhere in between their 2014 (Jason Frasor and Josh WIlmington) and 2015 acquisitions. While some would suggest waiting until the next couple weeks play out, I think the Royals have proven themselves a contender in a muddled AL race. Thus, the sooner a play is made for an impact player, the better off the team will be. I'd look for Moore to get something significant done within the next week.
4) Jason Vargas will regress to the mean
Not everything on this list can be positive. And this one isn't exactly a bold prediction either. Vargas has pitched well above his career norms this season and there's very little in the way of peripheral evidence to backup what he's doing. If Vargas is nothing more than what he's been his whole career for the rest of the season, he'll still be worth roughly three wins to the Royals, which is incredibly valuable. Vargas has been worth two wins already by fWAR and has a 2.62 ERA despite just a 6.60 strikeout rate and 2.12 walk rate. Neither of which, by the way, is unusual compared to the rest of his career. The 2.62 ERA, however, is. His xFIP labels him with a 4.77 ERA, much more in line with his career norms. Thus, it is highly likely he will not maintain his low ERA throughout the course of the season. However, there is something to the type of weak contact Vargas seems to be able to induce. He can't keep his sub-3 ERA with his K/BB ratio, but he can remain an extremely valuable starter for the Royals.
5) Kelvin Herrera will regain cyborg status
Of everything that has occurred this season, Kelvin Herrera being bad is by far the strangest development. If you asked me before the season if I had a choice of keeping one out of Wade Davis, Greg Holland or Herrera, I would've chosen Herrera. Despite the fact he's the cheapest of the three, he'd also been the best of the three most recently and the most reliable, as both Davis and Holland had obvious red flags injury wise. From the jump this season, Herrera's strikeout rate was a concern. While it's improved over the past month, he simply wasn't missing bats because of his inability to locate his offspeed pitches. He throws 98-100 MPH, but when a professional hitter knows a fastball is coming, they're going to hit it and hit it hard. That was the first two months of Herrera's season, in summary.
He seems to have figured out whatever was plaguing his changeup early on in the season, though the devastating slider he debuted last season is still MIA. Essentially, he's reverted back to the 2013 version of himself, which was a HR/FB disaster, with less ability to miss bats. Herrera, however, has been better than his 4.50 ERA would indicate. He has an xFIP of 3.80 and his 2.99 BABIP is currently a career high. He still possesses way above average stuff and has shown signs of putting it all together as the Royals entered the break. I'd expect for him to return to form, albeit not 2014-15 form when he just stopped giving up home runs and struck out everyone, but something that somewhat resembles that.
Thursday, July 13, 2017
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Royals Making a Push
At 37-37 the Royals find themselves in an interesting predicament. Thanks to the middling performance of the Indians, the overwhelming favorite in the American League Central, the Royals are just two games back in the division and in third place, 1.5 games behind the Twins, who have a -42 run differential.
The Royals are in the midst of their best stretch of baseball this season and have climbed all the way out of the 10-20 hole they put themselves in to start the season.
With the All-Star break just two weeks away and the trade deadline just two weeks beyond that, GM Dayton Moore will almost certainly have to navigate the thin line between trying to contend while also not mortgaging the club's future beyond this year.
I've gone back and forth on this several times since January. I advocated that the Royals give it one last run with this group of players, thus I was largely satisfied with the offseason's transactions. Then came the disastrous 10-20 start which had me reevaluating things and moving toward the "sell everyone and accelerate the rebuild" camp. They've gone 27-17 since, including a 15-7 record in the month of June.
The team was never as bad as it looked in April. They were hitting below .200 with runners in scoring position and had an abysmal BABIP, so regression to the mean was expected. But that's also what made the inauspicious start particularly damaging. The Royals, despite their improved play, still possess a poor run differential of -38. And while they're on an upward trajectory, the margin for error remains slim.
A bad week could tilt the scales back the other way.
For me to fully buy into this team's playoff chances, they need to play their way to five or six games above .500 and remain in the thick of the AL Central race -- a game or two out preferably. It's simply not worth the risk to receive nothing in the way of prospects for impending free agents Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Jason Vargas and Eric Hosmer at a statistical long shot.
Then again, this team has always defied the odds.
The Royals have plenty of important games ahead of them, however, their next six are of particular significance. They travel to Detroit for three games with the Tigers beginning tonight and then return back home for a three-game series with the Twins, who have had their number so far. Go 5-1 with a sweep of the Twins and you're sitting at 42-38, likely just a game out or tied for the lead in the division with the calendar turned to July.
At that point, it's time to consider adding some pieces to this team. While I don't expect, or advise that Moore takes the 2015 route of adding big fish like Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, which cost plenty in the way of prospects, I do think some modest upgrades to the bullpen and the infield, should be explored. There are also some potential in-house solutions available as well. Kyle Zimmer, if his arm is still attached, could provide an interesting bullpen option. Jorge Soler has a 1.127 OPS in 30 games at Omaha amidst DH Brandon Moss's continued struggles.
The Royals are at the tailend of a the best stretch of baseball the city has seen in three decades. An entire generation grew up without this. I'm in that generation. In 2008 I would've killed for meaningful baseball past the All-Star break. What the franchise has delivered 2013-16 has been a lot of fun. If the Royals are in the thick of playoff contention come the All-Star break, as outlined by the terms above, they owe it to themselves and the fan base to see it through.
I for one am rooting for one last ride with this group.
The Royals are in the midst of their best stretch of baseball this season and have climbed all the way out of the 10-20 hole they put themselves in to start the season.
With the All-Star break just two weeks away and the trade deadline just two weeks beyond that, GM Dayton Moore will almost certainly have to navigate the thin line between trying to contend while also not mortgaging the club's future beyond this year.
I've gone back and forth on this several times since January. I advocated that the Royals give it one last run with this group of players, thus I was largely satisfied with the offseason's transactions. Then came the disastrous 10-20 start which had me reevaluating things and moving toward the "sell everyone and accelerate the rebuild" camp. They've gone 27-17 since, including a 15-7 record in the month of June.
The team was never as bad as it looked in April. They were hitting below .200 with runners in scoring position and had an abysmal BABIP, so regression to the mean was expected. But that's also what made the inauspicious start particularly damaging. The Royals, despite their improved play, still possess a poor run differential of -38. And while they're on an upward trajectory, the margin for error remains slim.
A bad week could tilt the scales back the other way.
For me to fully buy into this team's playoff chances, they need to play their way to five or six games above .500 and remain in the thick of the AL Central race -- a game or two out preferably. It's simply not worth the risk to receive nothing in the way of prospects for impending free agents Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Jason Vargas and Eric Hosmer at a statistical long shot.
Then again, this team has always defied the odds.
The Royals have plenty of important games ahead of them, however, their next six are of particular significance. They travel to Detroit for three games with the Tigers beginning tonight and then return back home for a three-game series with the Twins, who have had their number so far. Go 5-1 with a sweep of the Twins and you're sitting at 42-38, likely just a game out or tied for the lead in the division with the calendar turned to July.
At that point, it's time to consider adding some pieces to this team. While I don't expect, or advise that Moore takes the 2015 route of adding big fish like Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, which cost plenty in the way of prospects, I do think some modest upgrades to the bullpen and the infield, should be explored. There are also some potential in-house solutions available as well. Kyle Zimmer, if his arm is still attached, could provide an interesting bullpen option. Jorge Soler has a 1.127 OPS in 30 games at Omaha amidst DH Brandon Moss's continued struggles.
The Royals are at the tailend of a the best stretch of baseball the city has seen in three decades. An entire generation grew up without this. I'm in that generation. In 2008 I would've killed for meaningful baseball past the All-Star break. What the franchise has delivered 2013-16 has been a lot of fun. If the Royals are in the thick of playoff contention come the All-Star break, as outlined by the terms above, they owe it to themselves and the fan base to see it through.
I for one am rooting for one last ride with this group.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Doubles Reported Missing From Royals Offense
As I'm sure you've noticed by now, the Kansas City Royals offense is quite awful. The Royals are last in the American League in runs with 147, which is the main reason why they are the not-so-proud owners of an 18-26 record and currently occupy the AL Central cellar.
This isn't a particularly new development for the Royals. With the exception of their World Series team in 2015, the current makeup of the club has always ranked near the bottom of the league in runs scored. They've made up for that with some good timely hitting, decent starting pitching, phenomenal defense and an otherworldly bullpen.
The Royals no longer have a phenomenal defense, merely a good one. They no longer have an otherworldly bullpen, merely an average one. So here we are.
I'm not interested in discussing all of that, however. I'm interested in delving into what exactly is plaguing this year's version of the offense. In years past, the Royals have possessed one elite skill in the offensive department: their ability to make contact.
Through 44 games this season, the Royals rank dead last in batting average (.230) and are fifth in strikeouts with 333. Those are both a serious departure from where they were even last season.
Where the Royals have always lagged is walks and home runs. They're still poor at drawing walks, ranking second-to-last in that department with 116. But they're actually on pace for their best home-run season in franchise history. As it stands now, they've hit 48 home runs and rank ninth in the league in that category. The club record is 168; they're on pace for 178.
So home runs are up and, while only slightly, so are the walks. So why on earth is this offense tracking to be the worst one of the Dayton Moore era?
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I was watching the Royals' series against the Twins over the weekend and a thought popped into my head as the Royals clubbed four home runs in a 6-4 win over the Twins in the first game of Sunday's doubleheader.
"It seems like there are only three results when this team puts the ball in play: an out, a single or a home run."
This thought struck me. And I tried to think back and recall games this season in which the Royals had multiple extra-base hits that weren't home runs. Surely this had occurred a few times this season, right? Answer: Yes, 14 times to be exact. They have seven games in which they've had two non-HR extra-base hits, six in which they've had three and one game in which they've had four.
Nevertheless, it was alarming to me that I couldn't think of an occurrence off the top of my head.
So I took a look at their doubles totals this season, a staple of their decent offensive teams in recent years. The numbers backed up my inclination. The Royals have hit just 52 doubles in 44 games, ranking them dead last by a wide margin in the league. They've also hit just three triples, ranking them third-to-last in the league.
What exacerbates this data is the ball park the Royals play in. Kauffman Stadium's cavernous outfield is conducive to extra-base hits. The 2011 Royals were the best at exploiting this. That team finished sixth in the league in runs and hit just 129 home runs (11th in the AL). But they hit 325 doubles, which ranked second in the league. The 2012 team took a step back offensively, but was still third in the league in doubles with 295. The 2013 team was bad at everything offensively. They ranked last in home runs, 12th in doubles and 11th in runs. (The firing of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, who preached a line-drive and gap approach, coincidentally lines up with this decline).
The 2014 Royals were one of the worst home-run hitting teams in the modern era, managing just 95 long balls, but they were ninth in runs because they hit 286 doubles, which was fourth in the league. And the 2015 Royals finally recaptured the 2011 offensive approach and finished sixth in runs, third in doubles with 300 and fourth in triples with 42.
The 2017 Royals are on pace to hit just 137 doubles. It would, quite obviously, be by far their worst mark in franchise history. Even the 1969 Royals, who scored an abysmal 586 runs, hit 179 doubles.
It's difficult to suss out what exactly the root cause is for this sudden doubles departure. At 44 games, the sample size is too large to brush it off as just a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. The most simple explanation is this team is putting the ball in play less frequently than it has in recent seasons. As was mentioned earlier, their strikeouts are up at 20.6 percent, compared to about 16 percent in 2014-15, and hits are down.
With more balls in play, one would expect the doubles total to rise. But by how much? If anything, it might point to a basic flaw in the team's overall hitting approach, which combined with the aging curve this crop of players is experiencing, has led to subpar results.
The Royals will almost certainly never have an offense that ranks in the top two or three in the league. They don't have the payroll or the ballpark for it and they seemingly have never had the ability to draft and develop the players to make up for those two things. But what has made their offense viable in this most recent run of success is their ability to use the ballpark to their advantage by employing a line-drive hitting approach that hits gaps and allows their young legs to take advantage of it.
The Royals are no longer young. And while their home-run power is experiencing an uptick, it does not appear to be the best path for them to take toward success if it means sacrificing putting the ball in play.
These are important things for the front office to consider with an inevitable rebuild looming.
This isn't a particularly new development for the Royals. With the exception of their World Series team in 2015, the current makeup of the club has always ranked near the bottom of the league in runs scored. They've made up for that with some good timely hitting, decent starting pitching, phenomenal defense and an otherworldly bullpen.
The Royals no longer have a phenomenal defense, merely a good one. They no longer have an otherworldly bullpen, merely an average one. So here we are.
I'm not interested in discussing all of that, however. I'm interested in delving into what exactly is plaguing this year's version of the offense. In years past, the Royals have possessed one elite skill in the offensive department: their ability to make contact.
Through 44 games this season, the Royals rank dead last in batting average (.230) and are fifth in strikeouts with 333. Those are both a serious departure from where they were even last season.
Where the Royals have always lagged is walks and home runs. They're still poor at drawing walks, ranking second-to-last in that department with 116. But they're actually on pace for their best home-run season in franchise history. As it stands now, they've hit 48 home runs and rank ninth in the league in that category. The club record is 168; they're on pace for 178.
So home runs are up and, while only slightly, so are the walks. So why on earth is this offense tracking to be the worst one of the Dayton Moore era?
-------
I was watching the Royals' series against the Twins over the weekend and a thought popped into my head as the Royals clubbed four home runs in a 6-4 win over the Twins in the first game of Sunday's doubleheader.
"It seems like there are only three results when this team puts the ball in play: an out, a single or a home run."
This thought struck me. And I tried to think back and recall games this season in which the Royals had multiple extra-base hits that weren't home runs. Surely this had occurred a few times this season, right? Answer: Yes, 14 times to be exact. They have seven games in which they've had two non-HR extra-base hits, six in which they've had three and one game in which they've had four.
Nevertheless, it was alarming to me that I couldn't think of an occurrence off the top of my head.
So I took a look at their doubles totals this season, a staple of their decent offensive teams in recent years. The numbers backed up my inclination. The Royals have hit just 52 doubles in 44 games, ranking them dead last by a wide margin in the league. They've also hit just three triples, ranking them third-to-last in the league.
What exacerbates this data is the ball park the Royals play in. Kauffman Stadium's cavernous outfield is conducive to extra-base hits. The 2011 Royals were the best at exploiting this. That team finished sixth in the league in runs and hit just 129 home runs (11th in the AL). But they hit 325 doubles, which ranked second in the league. The 2012 team took a step back offensively, but was still third in the league in doubles with 295. The 2013 team was bad at everything offensively. They ranked last in home runs, 12th in doubles and 11th in runs. (The firing of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, who preached a line-drive and gap approach, coincidentally lines up with this decline).
The 2014 Royals were one of the worst home-run hitting teams in the modern era, managing just 95 long balls, but they were ninth in runs because they hit 286 doubles, which was fourth in the league. And the 2015 Royals finally recaptured the 2011 offensive approach and finished sixth in runs, third in doubles with 300 and fourth in triples with 42.
The 2017 Royals are on pace to hit just 137 doubles. It would, quite obviously, be by far their worst mark in franchise history. Even the 1969 Royals, who scored an abysmal 586 runs, hit 179 doubles.
It's difficult to suss out what exactly the root cause is for this sudden doubles departure. At 44 games, the sample size is too large to brush it off as just a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. The most simple explanation is this team is putting the ball in play less frequently than it has in recent seasons. As was mentioned earlier, their strikeouts are up at 20.6 percent, compared to about 16 percent in 2014-15, and hits are down.
With more balls in play, one would expect the doubles total to rise. But by how much? If anything, it might point to a basic flaw in the team's overall hitting approach, which combined with the aging curve this crop of players is experiencing, has led to subpar results.
The Royals will almost certainly never have an offense that ranks in the top two or three in the league. They don't have the payroll or the ballpark for it and they seemingly have never had the ability to draft and develop the players to make up for those two things. But what has made their offense viable in this most recent run of success is their ability to use the ballpark to their advantage by employing a line-drive hitting approach that hits gaps and allows their young legs to take advantage of it.
The Royals are no longer young. And while their home-run power is experiencing an uptick, it does not appear to be the best path for them to take toward success if it means sacrificing putting the ball in play.
These are important things for the front office to consider with an inevitable rebuild looming.
Monday, May 15, 2017
Is Alex Gordon Done?
The Kansas City Royals are fresh off a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend and are all of the sudden one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won six of seven. Yet, they remain in last place in the division and tied for the worst record in the American League at 16-21 while also possessing an ugly -37 run differential.
The question of whether the Royals should stay the course as a contender or have a fire sale will linger for the next month or so and will hinge, obviously, on the club's performance over that stretch.
Amidst all of this, a disturbing storyline has persisted. Alex Gordon, the team's highest-paid player, fan favorite and starting left fielder is lost at the plate. In 35 games he's hitting .152 with a .264 on-base percentage and a .192 slugging percentage. He is, quite simply, the worst hitter in baseball currently.
Gordon's sudden demise at the plate is perplexing to say the least. It's quite common for a hitter to decline once he reaches his early 30s and Gordon is 33. But there are very few examples of a player of Gordon's stature falling off a cliff like this.
Gordon's best season came in 2011 at age 27 when he hit .303/.376/.502. From 2011-2015 he was one of the best 10 players in baseball as measured by bWAR; though he's never again approached that .500 slugging percentage mark. During that five-year span Gordon settled in as about an .800 OPS guy who played Gold Glove defense in left field. He was the team's best player.
He showed zero signs of slowing down in his age 31 season in 2015 and, in fact, was tracking toward his best year since 2011 before going down with a nasty groin injury that caused him to miss about two months of the season. He still posted a career-high OBP season (.377) and had an OPS of .809. The Royals won a World Series, one which Gordon was a hero in, and in the offseason the club signed him to a franchise-record 4-year $72 million deal.
It has all gone awry since.
Playing against the White Sox in May Gordon collided with third baseman Mike Moustakas while going after a foul ball in what was the seminal moment of the season that was riddled with injuries to key players. Gordon broke his hand and missed six weeks. Moustakas tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.
It was May 22 and Gordon was hitting .211/.319/.331. Not good, but it could simply be deemed a slow start and one that could be recovered from over the course of a full season. Gordon finished with a line .220/.312/.380. He had a .649 OPS in July, essentially his first full month back, and then showed signs of putting it all together in August when he hit .265/.348/.510. A bad September lowered his season totals. Gordon was actually right in line, given the time missed, with his career averages in home runs with 17. However, he was far below his extra-base hits totals.
I for one chalked up his poor season to nothing more than some misfortune. I felt his slow start was exacerbated by the injury and it was essentially a lost season. Not what you want from a guy making $16M a year on a small-market club, but understandable and nothing too alarming, although he did have a career high strikeout rate of 29.2 percent.
Ultimately, I was confident Gordon would rebound this season and while his best years are clearly behind him, I felt he was capable of OPS'ing around .780 and being a two or three-win player. Which makes what's occurred so far this season so confounding.
The easiest way to explain Gordon's struggles is his sudden propensity to hit the ball on the ground. Gordon currently has a 53.2 percent groundball rate; by far the highest of his career. He simply isn't elevating the baseball. Or, in Royals terms, he's caught a case of the Eric Hosmers.
Gordon has never been a big-time power hitter, but it's May 15 and he hasn't hit a home run. What's more, he has just five extra-base hits (!), all of which are doubles. Gordon has a career BABIP of .314. His current BABIP is .200. Usually, that's an indicator of bad luck that will correct itself over the course of 162 games. The issue with Gordon, as it has been with Hosmer, is when you hit the ball on the ground more than half of the time, those are usually converted into outs.
It's not bad luck, it's bad hitting.
According to longtime baseball writer Jayson Stark, who appears weekly with Soren Petro on 810 WHB in Kansas City, some scouts around baseball are speculating that Gordon can no longer get around on major-league fastballs. If that's true, it's even more baffling, considering that was Gordon's signature skill during his 2011-15 run, as he was the sixth-best hitter in the American League against fastballs, compiling a 92.4 runs above average, per Fangraphs. Other players on that list include: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista and David Ortiz.
Since 2016, however, Gordon is just 1.1 runs above average against the pitch, a catastrophic dip. He enters the series against the New York Yankees batting .190 against four-seam fastballs and .167 against two-seamers, according to MLB Statcast data. The league average against those pitches is .271.
While it's still probably too early to conclude Gordon no longer has the bat speed to hit a major-league fastball, these are scary numbers for Royals fans.
While it's a blog topic for a different day, I was a major proponent of resigning Gordon back in 2016 and I was a fan of the contract. To me, Gordon fit the profile of a player who would age well. His diet and fitness regimen is renowned around baseball. He's a tremendous athlete, who transitioned seamlessly from third base to left field. He has always had a good eye at the plate. I likened him to Carlos Beltran in terms of aging gracefully and thought he could replicate that production through the course of his contract.
So far, that hasn't come to fruition. So it's fair to wonder if Gordon is in fact "done." If so, it severely hinders the Royals going forward and actually accentuates the club's need to sell at the deadline. A large part of me, however, believes there's some flukiness to all this. It's somewhat unprecedented for a player with Gordon's core attributes as a player to suddenly fall off a cliff at age 33. A decline was expected, but he's slugging .192 for God's sake. It seems inconceivable that this type of poor performance would continue.
For the Royals' sake, let's hope that intuition is accurate. Because if not, it'll be an ugly end to one of the greatest Royals careers of all time.
The question of whether the Royals should stay the course as a contender or have a fire sale will linger for the next month or so and will hinge, obviously, on the club's performance over that stretch.
Amidst all of this, a disturbing storyline has persisted. Alex Gordon, the team's highest-paid player, fan favorite and starting left fielder is lost at the plate. In 35 games he's hitting .152 with a .264 on-base percentage and a .192 slugging percentage. He is, quite simply, the worst hitter in baseball currently.
Gordon's sudden demise at the plate is perplexing to say the least. It's quite common for a hitter to decline once he reaches his early 30s and Gordon is 33. But there are very few examples of a player of Gordon's stature falling off a cliff like this.
Gordon's best season came in 2011 at age 27 when he hit .303/.376/.502. From 2011-2015 he was one of the best 10 players in baseball as measured by bWAR; though he's never again approached that .500 slugging percentage mark. During that five-year span Gordon settled in as about an .800 OPS guy who played Gold Glove defense in left field. He was the team's best player.
He showed zero signs of slowing down in his age 31 season in 2015 and, in fact, was tracking toward his best year since 2011 before going down with a nasty groin injury that caused him to miss about two months of the season. He still posted a career-high OBP season (.377) and had an OPS of .809. The Royals won a World Series, one which Gordon was a hero in, and in the offseason the club signed him to a franchise-record 4-year $72 million deal.
It has all gone awry since.
Playing against the White Sox in May Gordon collided with third baseman Mike Moustakas while going after a foul ball in what was the seminal moment of the season that was riddled with injuries to key players. Gordon broke his hand and missed six weeks. Moustakas tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.
It was May 22 and Gordon was hitting .211/.319/.331. Not good, but it could simply be deemed a slow start and one that could be recovered from over the course of a full season. Gordon finished with a line .220/.312/.380. He had a .649 OPS in July, essentially his first full month back, and then showed signs of putting it all together in August when he hit .265/.348/.510. A bad September lowered his season totals. Gordon was actually right in line, given the time missed, with his career averages in home runs with 17. However, he was far below his extra-base hits totals.
I for one chalked up his poor season to nothing more than some misfortune. I felt his slow start was exacerbated by the injury and it was essentially a lost season. Not what you want from a guy making $16M a year on a small-market club, but understandable and nothing too alarming, although he did have a career high strikeout rate of 29.2 percent.
Ultimately, I was confident Gordon would rebound this season and while his best years are clearly behind him, I felt he was capable of OPS'ing around .780 and being a two or three-win player. Which makes what's occurred so far this season so confounding.
The easiest way to explain Gordon's struggles is his sudden propensity to hit the ball on the ground. Gordon currently has a 53.2 percent groundball rate; by far the highest of his career. He simply isn't elevating the baseball. Or, in Royals terms, he's caught a case of the Eric Hosmers.
Gordon has never been a big-time power hitter, but it's May 15 and he hasn't hit a home run. What's more, he has just five extra-base hits (!), all of which are doubles. Gordon has a career BABIP of .314. His current BABIP is .200. Usually, that's an indicator of bad luck that will correct itself over the course of 162 games. The issue with Gordon, as it has been with Hosmer, is when you hit the ball on the ground more than half of the time, those are usually converted into outs.
It's not bad luck, it's bad hitting.
According to longtime baseball writer Jayson Stark, who appears weekly with Soren Petro on 810 WHB in Kansas City, some scouts around baseball are speculating that Gordon can no longer get around on major-league fastballs. If that's true, it's even more baffling, considering that was Gordon's signature skill during his 2011-15 run, as he was the sixth-best hitter in the American League against fastballs, compiling a 92.4 runs above average, per Fangraphs. Other players on that list include: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Nelson Cruz, Jose Bautista and David Ortiz.
Since 2016, however, Gordon is just 1.1 runs above average against the pitch, a catastrophic dip. He enters the series against the New York Yankees batting .190 against four-seam fastballs and .167 against two-seamers, according to MLB Statcast data. The league average against those pitches is .271.
While it's still probably too early to conclude Gordon no longer has the bat speed to hit a major-league fastball, these are scary numbers for Royals fans.
While it's a blog topic for a different day, I was a major proponent of resigning Gordon back in 2016 and I was a fan of the contract. To me, Gordon fit the profile of a player who would age well. His diet and fitness regimen is renowned around baseball. He's a tremendous athlete, who transitioned seamlessly from third base to left field. He has always had a good eye at the plate. I likened him to Carlos Beltran in terms of aging gracefully and thought he could replicate that production through the course of his contract.
So far, that hasn't come to fruition. So it's fair to wonder if Gordon is in fact "done." If so, it severely hinders the Royals going forward and actually accentuates the club's need to sell at the deadline. A large part of me, however, believes there's some flukiness to all this. It's somewhat unprecedented for a player with Gordon's core attributes as a player to suddenly fall off a cliff at age 33. A decline was expected, but he's slugging .192 for God's sake. It seems inconceivable that this type of poor performance would continue.
For the Royals' sake, let's hope that intuition is accurate. Because if not, it'll be an ugly end to one of the greatest Royals careers of all time.
Thursday, April 27, 2017
A Royally Bad Start
Why the Royals 7-14 start is worse than you might think
On Wednesday the Royals fell 5-2 to the White Sox to complete a miserable road trip in which they lost seven straight games to the Rangers and White Sox. They are 7-14 and come back home to Kansas City this weekend to close out the month with a three-game series against the Twins.
Now while it should be noted that 7-14 stretches happen over the course of a 162-game season, even to playoff teams, the circumstances surrounding this stretch and what it means in the grand scheme of things exacerbate the slow start.
You see, the Royals don't have 141 games to turn this thing around. They have impending free agents up and down their lineup, a few of whom would be very valuable trade commodities for a team that has a less-than-stellar farm system and will be rebuilding beginning next season.
Thus, the Royals essentially have until the end of June, maybe the second week of July when the All-Star Game occurs, to turn things around and prove they are a contender. Using that metric, they have 67 games left to assert themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.
The most concerning thing, however, is the manner in which the Royals have reached the 7-14 mark. It's not a string of bad luck and close losses. They have a -33 run differential and have a major-league worst 54 runs in 21 games. The Royals, in their current makeup, I'm quite certain are not this bad. I believe it to be a bad month, one in which the offense has been inconceivably bad for a variety of reasons.
Unfortunately, the "it's early" logic doesn't apply to a team like the Royals once the calendar turns to May. The Royals do not have the benefit of a full schedule. With the rest of the American League, particularly the Central's performance also under consideration, the Royals likely need to go something like 40-27 over the next 67 games to avoid a necessary fire sale at the deadline. That would put them at 47-41, with, you would expect, a positive run differential and on the fringes of a playoff spot.
But the worst-case scenario might also be the more likely one. And that's the Royals playing about six or seven games above .500 over the next 67 to have a record of 44-44 or thereabouts. Depending on where that would put the Royals relative to the rest of the AL contenders will obviously be a major factor in how Dayton Moore decides to move forward.
Moore's track record suggests he'll allow this group to make a run at the postseason and even add pieces to shore up weak spots to aid them, because he has the utmost belief in his players. The caveat to that, however, is that he had little choice in 2013 and 2014. He had essentially gone all in ahead of the 2013 season by executing the Wil Myers-James Shields (now Wade Davis) trade. The Royals core was still young and all under contract for three or four more years. It made little sense to sell at the deadline.
In 2014, Moore was in year eight of being in charge and faced a make-or-break season. The Royals limped out of the All-Star break with four consecutive losses to fall to 48-50. Many called for them to blow it up and start over, because this group couldn't get it done. The Process had failed. The one problem with that logic was that blowing it up meant Moore would be in essence handing in his resignation letter to David Glass. He had no choice but to let the team try and work through their struggles and hope they could make a push to the first postseason since 1985. As we know, they got hot and did just that. And they stayed hot all the way to the World Series.
This isn't 2013 or 2014 though. The Royals have big-name free agents at the end of the season in Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Essentially the core of the World Series teams. What will Moore do if the Royals are six games out and hovering around .500 as the deadline nears?
That is the nightmare scenario for this organization, because the worse thing that can happen this season is the Royals falling woefully short of making the postseason having not got any return on their expiring assets. It could set the franchise back at least a couple years.
The far more prudent decision in that circumstance would be for Moore to recognize the slim chances and sell off what valuable assets he can in order to restock the farm system and accelerate the rebuild. But Moore has never faced this particular situation, so how he handles it is anyone's guess.
The Royals, of course, could make things easy on Moore and go on a 43-24 tear or do the opposite and go 30-37 over the next 67. Those are the ideal scenarios.
The 7-14 start, however, complicates things immensely and sets things up for a dicey couple of months for the franchise and its future.
On Wednesday the Royals fell 5-2 to the White Sox to complete a miserable road trip in which they lost seven straight games to the Rangers and White Sox. They are 7-14 and come back home to Kansas City this weekend to close out the month with a three-game series against the Twins.
Now while it should be noted that 7-14 stretches happen over the course of a 162-game season, even to playoff teams, the circumstances surrounding this stretch and what it means in the grand scheme of things exacerbate the slow start.
You see, the Royals don't have 141 games to turn this thing around. They have impending free agents up and down their lineup, a few of whom would be very valuable trade commodities for a team that has a less-than-stellar farm system and will be rebuilding beginning next season.
Thus, the Royals essentially have until the end of June, maybe the second week of July when the All-Star Game occurs, to turn things around and prove they are a contender. Using that metric, they have 67 games left to assert themselves as legitimate playoff contenders.
The most concerning thing, however, is the manner in which the Royals have reached the 7-14 mark. It's not a string of bad luck and close losses. They have a -33 run differential and have a major-league worst 54 runs in 21 games. The Royals, in their current makeup, I'm quite certain are not this bad. I believe it to be a bad month, one in which the offense has been inconceivably bad for a variety of reasons.
Unfortunately, the "it's early" logic doesn't apply to a team like the Royals once the calendar turns to May. The Royals do not have the benefit of a full schedule. With the rest of the American League, particularly the Central's performance also under consideration, the Royals likely need to go something like 40-27 over the next 67 games to avoid a necessary fire sale at the deadline. That would put them at 47-41, with, you would expect, a positive run differential and on the fringes of a playoff spot.
But the worst-case scenario might also be the more likely one. And that's the Royals playing about six or seven games above .500 over the next 67 to have a record of 44-44 or thereabouts. Depending on where that would put the Royals relative to the rest of the AL contenders will obviously be a major factor in how Dayton Moore decides to move forward.
Moore's track record suggests he'll allow this group to make a run at the postseason and even add pieces to shore up weak spots to aid them, because he has the utmost belief in his players. The caveat to that, however, is that he had little choice in 2013 and 2014. He had essentially gone all in ahead of the 2013 season by executing the Wil Myers-James Shields (now Wade Davis) trade. The Royals core was still young and all under contract for three or four more years. It made little sense to sell at the deadline.
In 2014, Moore was in year eight of being in charge and faced a make-or-break season. The Royals limped out of the All-Star break with four consecutive losses to fall to 48-50. Many called for them to blow it up and start over, because this group couldn't get it done. The Process had failed. The one problem with that logic was that blowing it up meant Moore would be in essence handing in his resignation letter to David Glass. He had no choice but to let the team try and work through their struggles and hope they could make a push to the first postseason since 1985. As we know, they got hot and did just that. And they stayed hot all the way to the World Series.
This isn't 2013 or 2014 though. The Royals have big-name free agents at the end of the season in Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. Essentially the core of the World Series teams. What will Moore do if the Royals are six games out and hovering around .500 as the deadline nears?
That is the nightmare scenario for this organization, because the worse thing that can happen this season is the Royals falling woefully short of making the postseason having not got any return on their expiring assets. It could set the franchise back at least a couple years.
The far more prudent decision in that circumstance would be for Moore to recognize the slim chances and sell off what valuable assets he can in order to restock the farm system and accelerate the rebuild. But Moore has never faced this particular situation, so how he handles it is anyone's guess.
The Royals, of course, could make things easy on Moore and go on a 43-24 tear or do the opposite and go 30-37 over the next 67. Those are the ideal scenarios.
The 7-14 start, however, complicates things immensely and sets things up for a dicey couple of months for the franchise and its future.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Eric Hosmer Conundrum
The Royals lost to the Giants 2-1 in 11 innings on Tuesday in what was the latest episode of futility for the struggling Royals offense. They have scored 39 runs in 13 games for an average of three runs per game. That is bad.
While there's multiple parties to blame for the low output thus far — Alex Gordon has a .513 OPS batting leadoff, Brandon Moss is at .592 as the team's DH, Paulo Orlando has an unthinkable -14 OPS+ and Raul Mondesi has a whopping OPS+ of 2 — the focus of this piece is Eric Hosmer.
To further exacerbate his dreadful start to the 2017 season, Hosmer came up in two critical late-inning spots against the Giants and failed both times. With the bases loaded amid a 1-1 game in the eighth and two outs, Hosmer grounded out to first base.
Facing lefty Steven Okert, Hosmer offered at a first pitch well outside the strike zone to fall behind 0-1. He laid off a similarly wild second pitch to even the count. He then, however, swung violently at the 1-1 offering that was inside, in an attempt to pull the ball. He instead fouled it off and fell behind 1-2.
At this point Okert has thrown three pitches well out of the zone with the bases loaded and the game on the line, yet he's ahead in the count thanks to Hosmer's impatience.
Sensing Hosmer's obvious overzealous approach, Okert threw Hosmer another breaking ball inside in hopes of a big pull swing. He got it and Hosmer grounded out harmlessly to first.
Thanks to some great bullpen work, the Royals again had a great opportunity to win the game, this time in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. Mike Moustakas blooped a one-out single to center and Lorenzo Cain followed by lacing a single to center, putting runners on first and second with one out. Hosmer, the club's cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate again with a chance to win the game.
This time, facing righty Derek Law, Hosmer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. The Giants scored in the top of the 11th and won the game 2-1.
The fact Hosmer failed to deliver in both situations, on balance, isn't incredibly telling or unusual. Baseball players, even the best ones, fail in crucial spots all the time. It's part of the game. What is interesting and incredibly troubling is how predictable the manner in which Hosmer failed, a ground ball to the right side, was.
It's been well documented at this point, but it's perplexing enough that it warrants repeated mentioning: Hosmer, all 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds of him, is a groundball machine. And in his sixth season, at age 27, it isn't getting better; it's getting worse.
Last year Hosmer was second in all of baseball with an astounding 58.9 percent groundball rate. He hit line drives just 16.5 percent of the time and fly balls just 24.7 percent of the time. His GB/FB ratio was 2.38, up from 2.13 in 2015 which was up from 1.61 in 2014. This year his GB/FB ratio is 4.33 and he 63.4 percent of his batted balls in play have been groundballs. As a result, he's hit into a league-high six groundball double plays so far while batting .200/.259/.260.
It's a problem.
I have no doubt Hosmer will find his groove and climb his way back to respectable numbers. But the groundball issue is real and it has perpetuated itself. It is a byproduct of his swing, which he seems hell-bent on sticking with.
Hosmer has no issue generating power with his swing and he hasn't his entire career. His average home-run distance consistently ranks near the very top of the league. The problem is he's topped just 20 home runs once in his career, hitting a career-high 25 last season. Hosmer's average exit velocity this season is a little more than 90 mph, which is above league average. However, per Baseball Savant, Hosmer's launch angle is just under five degrees; the league average is 13 degrees.
It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's on the ground. At best it's a single, at worst, and much more frequently, it's an out. For someone with Hosmer's power, hitting ground balls should be a very rare occurence. Instead, it's the norm.
This poor start by Hosmer is bad for both parties. He's in a contract year and his agent, the all-powerful Scott Boras floated out the $200 million figure soon after Hosmer won the All-Star game MVP last season. Hosmer was in the midst of a decline that hasn't slowed entering the mid-July contest, but his numbers still looked pretty. He was hitting .324/.382/.547 after a June 10 win over the White Sox. From June 11 to the end of the season Hosmer hit .232/.297/.366 to finish with an OPS of .758 and a wRC+ right at league average of 101.
Hosmer isn't getting $200M even with a career-best season, mainly because his best season (.297/.363/.459 in 15) ranks around the middle of the pack for first basemen. Boras will tout Hosmer's winning pedigree, the ASG MVP, his clutch hitting and heroics in the postseason, but the reality is this: Hosmer to date is a light-hitting first baseman with a penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. He's a slightly lesser version than the Giants Brandon Belt, who received 5 years-$72.8M.
If that's where the market settles on Hosmer, then I'm quite certain the Royals would jump at the chance to bring him back. Hosmer though, through Boras' negotiation skills and the propensity for at least one GM being stupid enough to buy a player's perceived star power rather than assessing his actual overall value, likely gets more. The Royals would be very wise to let him walk and reallocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Because unless Hosmer overhauls his swing and takes the path of Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez and others, he is only going to get worse with age.
While there's multiple parties to blame for the low output thus far — Alex Gordon has a .513 OPS batting leadoff, Brandon Moss is at .592 as the team's DH, Paulo Orlando has an unthinkable -14 OPS+ and Raul Mondesi has a whopping OPS+ of 2 — the focus of this piece is Eric Hosmer.
To further exacerbate his dreadful start to the 2017 season, Hosmer came up in two critical late-inning spots against the Giants and failed both times. With the bases loaded amid a 1-1 game in the eighth and two outs, Hosmer grounded out to first base.
Facing lefty Steven Okert, Hosmer offered at a first pitch well outside the strike zone to fall behind 0-1. He laid off a similarly wild second pitch to even the count. He then, however, swung violently at the 1-1 offering that was inside, in an attempt to pull the ball. He instead fouled it off and fell behind 1-2.
At this point Okert has thrown three pitches well out of the zone with the bases loaded and the game on the line, yet he's ahead in the count thanks to Hosmer's impatience.
Sensing Hosmer's obvious overzealous approach, Okert threw Hosmer another breaking ball inside in hopes of a big pull swing. He got it and Hosmer grounded out harmlessly to first.
Thanks to some great bullpen work, the Royals again had a great opportunity to win the game, this time in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning. Mike Moustakas blooped a one-out single to center and Lorenzo Cain followed by lacing a single to center, putting runners on first and second with one out. Hosmer, the club's cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate again with a chance to win the game.
This time, facing righty Derek Law, Hosmer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. The Giants scored in the top of the 11th and won the game 2-1.
The fact Hosmer failed to deliver in both situations, on balance, isn't incredibly telling or unusual. Baseball players, even the best ones, fail in crucial spots all the time. It's part of the game. What is interesting and incredibly troubling is how predictable the manner in which Hosmer failed, a ground ball to the right side, was.
It's been well documented at this point, but it's perplexing enough that it warrants repeated mentioning: Hosmer, all 6 feet 4 inches and 225 pounds of him, is a groundball machine. And in his sixth season, at age 27, it isn't getting better; it's getting worse.
Last year Hosmer was second in all of baseball with an astounding 58.9 percent groundball rate. He hit line drives just 16.5 percent of the time and fly balls just 24.7 percent of the time. His GB/FB ratio was 2.38, up from 2.13 in 2015 which was up from 1.61 in 2014. This year his GB/FB ratio is 4.33 and he 63.4 percent of his batted balls in play have been groundballs. As a result, he's hit into a league-high six groundball double plays so far while batting .200/.259/.260.
It's a problem.
I have no doubt Hosmer will find his groove and climb his way back to respectable numbers. But the groundball issue is real and it has perpetuated itself. It is a byproduct of his swing, which he seems hell-bent on sticking with.
Hosmer has no issue generating power with his swing and he hasn't his entire career. His average home-run distance consistently ranks near the very top of the league. The problem is he's topped just 20 home runs once in his career, hitting a career-high 25 last season. Hosmer's average exit velocity this season is a little more than 90 mph, which is above league average. However, per Baseball Savant, Hosmer's launch angle is just under five degrees; the league average is 13 degrees.
It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's on the ground. At best it's a single, at worst, and much more frequently, it's an out. For someone with Hosmer's power, hitting ground balls should be a very rare occurence. Instead, it's the norm.
This poor start by Hosmer is bad for both parties. He's in a contract year and his agent, the all-powerful Scott Boras floated out the $200 million figure soon after Hosmer won the All-Star game MVP last season. Hosmer was in the midst of a decline that hasn't slowed entering the mid-July contest, but his numbers still looked pretty. He was hitting .324/.382/.547 after a June 10 win over the White Sox. From June 11 to the end of the season Hosmer hit .232/.297/.366 to finish with an OPS of .758 and a wRC+ right at league average of 101.
Hosmer isn't getting $200M even with a career-best season, mainly because his best season (.297/.363/.459 in 15) ranks around the middle of the pack for first basemen. Boras will tout Hosmer's winning pedigree, the ASG MVP, his clutch hitting and heroics in the postseason, but the reality is this: Hosmer to date is a light-hitting first baseman with a penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. He's a slightly lesser version than the Giants Brandon Belt, who received 5 years-$72.8M.
If that's where the market settles on Hosmer, then I'm quite certain the Royals would jump at the chance to bring him back. Hosmer though, through Boras' negotiation skills and the propensity for at least one GM being stupid enough to buy a player's perceived star power rather than assessing his actual overall value, likely gets more. The Royals would be very wise to let him walk and reallocate their financial resources elsewhere.
Because unless Hosmer overhauls his swing and takes the path of Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez and others, he is only going to get worse with age.
Friday, April 14, 2017
Royals Bullpen Issues Real and Fake
The Royals are nine games into the 2017 season and sit at 3-6. And the most discussed topic about the team so far is the bullpen. A unit that has come to define the Royals and their success the past three years has been a weakness through the first week and a half of the season.
The important part of the previous sentence is "first week and a half of the season." While the bullpen issues are no doubt concerning, it's also prudent to acknowledge the fact it could be a blip on the radar in an 162-game season. Lorenzo Cain leads the league in walks with 10 in nine games. Cain's career high for walks in a season is 37. Eric Hosmer has a .473 OPS. See where I'm going with this?
The best part about about the month of April is it means baseball is back. The worst part about the month of April is it means grand observations are formed on the basis of a very small sample of data, because it is the only data we have available at the moment. And media members have a job to discuss what's in front of them and their bosses won't accept "it's really early so I wouldn't worry about it" as an opinion every day of April.
If Hosmer has this stretch of futility at the plate in August while he's hitting .280/.340/.450, it's a lot less noticeable and less worrisome. If the bullpen has the stretch of ineffectiveness it has currently produced, which is a 7.81 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, through nine games in August while ranking as a top-five bullpen on the season, it's deemed a bad stretch, not an indictment of the unit.
None of this is to say the bullpen is fine and you shouldn't worry about it. There's some real concern thus far. It isn't just some string of bad luck. While their xFIP of 5.75 suggests some misfortune, the root of the bullpen's struggles so far is the byproduct of their own control, literally and figuratively. In the three true outcomes, the Royals bullpen is a mess so far. They've walked 7.48 batters per nine, struck out just 6.51 and allowed 1.3 home runs. That's troublesome to say the least.
What's more, the two pitchers who figured to be the Royals top options out of the pen, Matt Strahm and Kelvin Herrera, have been two of the biggest problems. Strahm made three appearances in the first six games and allowed seven runs and four hits while walking six and striking out none in 1.1 innings. He's since been sent down to Omaha to workout his issues.
Herrera, who earned his first save in not-so-smooth fashion against the A's on Thursday, has allowed two runs off three hits in three innings. His biggest issue so far, however, has been his alarming inability to miss bats, a staple of his success the past few years. Two of the three hits he's allowed have been home runs, including one that earned him a blown save in the series finale against Houston. And while he hasn't issued any walks, unlike the rest of the bullpen, he's managed just one strikeout.
I tend to believe Herrera will find his form as there's nothing in his peripherals to suggest a significant drop off just yet. But in my non-expert opinion, Herrera's off-speed pitches are what seem to be lagging. He added a devastating slider to his arsenal last season that made him borderline unfair. A wipeout slider combined with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and an above-average change-up is a lethal combination. His inability to find the same bite on the slider and his inability to locate his change-up so far have caused him to lean heavily on his fastball, which hitters haven't been fooled by very much so far. Even armed with just his fastball, assuming good location, Herrera is still an above-average reliever. The Royals need him to be better than that, so here's to hoping he regains his feel for the secondary pitches.
Travis Wood, who the Royals signed as a free agent has also been very bad. Wood has appeared in five games and has allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking five and striking out just two. Wood's not-so-distant past suggests he's a much better pitcher than that. But walks have always been an issue for Wood and his inability to miss bats last season (6.93 K/9) is making his 2015 season with the Cubs (10.55 K/9) look more like an anomaly.
The Royals best two relievers have been Peter Moylan and Joakim Soria, both of whom have not allowed a run yet in a combined 9 innings of work. Both, however, have not been immune to the base on balls bug that has infected the entire Royals pitching staff. Moylan has issued two free passes and Soria has issued three.
A .429 BABIP against Strahm, a .333 BABIP against Wood suggest both have been unlucky. But neither have helped their own cause with walks and home runs. While it's unrealistic to expect Moylan and Soria to maintain their spotless ERA, it's equally unrealistic to expect Wood, Strahm and Herrera to combine for an ERA north of 20. Strahm and Herrera both possess stuff that's far too good to play above a 3 ERA in the pen.
So where does that leave the bullpen? Will it regain form and establish itself as the dominant force it has been in the recent past? Probably not. The Royals' bullpen run from 2013-2015 is unprecedented in baseball and a large reason why the team has been so hard to peg for advanced analytics folks. But given the track record under GM Dayton Moore, it's fair to think this year's version, given the current options and a few other young arms from the minors (hello Josh Staumont), could find itself near the top of the pack in the AL for bullpens.
If it doesn't and the trend from the first nine games continues, well, the Royals will be sellers at the trade deadline and the rebuild will be underway. Let's hope for the fan base's sake that doesn't come to fruition.
The important part of the previous sentence is "first week and a half of the season." While the bullpen issues are no doubt concerning, it's also prudent to acknowledge the fact it could be a blip on the radar in an 162-game season. Lorenzo Cain leads the league in walks with 10 in nine games. Cain's career high for walks in a season is 37. Eric Hosmer has a .473 OPS. See where I'm going with this?
The best part about about the month of April is it means baseball is back. The worst part about the month of April is it means grand observations are formed on the basis of a very small sample of data, because it is the only data we have available at the moment. And media members have a job to discuss what's in front of them and their bosses won't accept "it's really early so I wouldn't worry about it" as an opinion every day of April.
If Hosmer has this stretch of futility at the plate in August while he's hitting .280/.340/.450, it's a lot less noticeable and less worrisome. If the bullpen has the stretch of ineffectiveness it has currently produced, which is a 7.81 ERA in 27.2 innings of work, through nine games in August while ranking as a top-five bullpen on the season, it's deemed a bad stretch, not an indictment of the unit.
None of this is to say the bullpen is fine and you shouldn't worry about it. There's some real concern thus far. It isn't just some string of bad luck. While their xFIP of 5.75 suggests some misfortune, the root of the bullpen's struggles so far is the byproduct of their own control, literally and figuratively. In the three true outcomes, the Royals bullpen is a mess so far. They've walked 7.48 batters per nine, struck out just 6.51 and allowed 1.3 home runs. That's troublesome to say the least.
What's more, the two pitchers who figured to be the Royals top options out of the pen, Matt Strahm and Kelvin Herrera, have been two of the biggest problems. Strahm made three appearances in the first six games and allowed seven runs and four hits while walking six and striking out none in 1.1 innings. He's since been sent down to Omaha to workout his issues.
Herrera, who earned his first save in not-so-smooth fashion against the A's on Thursday, has allowed two runs off three hits in three innings. His biggest issue so far, however, has been his alarming inability to miss bats, a staple of his success the past few years. Two of the three hits he's allowed have been home runs, including one that earned him a blown save in the series finale against Houston. And while he hasn't issued any walks, unlike the rest of the bullpen, he's managed just one strikeout.
I tend to believe Herrera will find his form as there's nothing in his peripherals to suggest a significant drop off just yet. But in my non-expert opinion, Herrera's off-speed pitches are what seem to be lagging. He added a devastating slider to his arsenal last season that made him borderline unfair. A wipeout slider combined with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and an above-average change-up is a lethal combination. His inability to find the same bite on the slider and his inability to locate his change-up so far have caused him to lean heavily on his fastball, which hitters haven't been fooled by very much so far. Even armed with just his fastball, assuming good location, Herrera is still an above-average reliever. The Royals need him to be better than that, so here's to hoping he regains his feel for the secondary pitches.
Travis Wood, who the Royals signed as a free agent has also been very bad. Wood has appeared in five games and has allowed six runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking five and striking out just two. Wood's not-so-distant past suggests he's a much better pitcher than that. But walks have always been an issue for Wood and his inability to miss bats last season (6.93 K/9) is making his 2015 season with the Cubs (10.55 K/9) look more like an anomaly.
The Royals best two relievers have been Peter Moylan and Joakim Soria, both of whom have not allowed a run yet in a combined 9 innings of work. Both, however, have not been immune to the base on balls bug that has infected the entire Royals pitching staff. Moylan has issued two free passes and Soria has issued three.
A .429 BABIP against Strahm, a .333 BABIP against Wood suggest both have been unlucky. But neither have helped their own cause with walks and home runs. While it's unrealistic to expect Moylan and Soria to maintain their spotless ERA, it's equally unrealistic to expect Wood, Strahm and Herrera to combine for an ERA north of 20. Strahm and Herrera both possess stuff that's far too good to play above a 3 ERA in the pen.
So where does that leave the bullpen? Will it regain form and establish itself as the dominant force it has been in the recent past? Probably not. The Royals' bullpen run from 2013-2015 is unprecedented in baseball and a large reason why the team has been so hard to peg for advanced analytics folks. But given the track record under GM Dayton Moore, it's fair to think this year's version, given the current options and a few other young arms from the minors (hello Josh Staumont), could find itself near the top of the pack in the AL for bullpens.
If it doesn't and the trend from the first nine games continues, well, the Royals will be sellers at the trade deadline and the rebuild will be underway. Let's hope for the fan base's sake that doesn't come to fruition.
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