This is Fun

Lets get this out of the way: The 2013 Kansas City Royals are in all likelihood not going to make the playoffs. They are 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card slot with seven games to go. And their division rival, the Cleveland Indians, look extremely poised to nab the final spot.

Now that that's out of the way. 

Wow, this is a lot of fun. The Royals had crushed the spirits of me and whole host of fans in my generation when they began an astounding 4-19 stretch in May that lasted until mid June and flipped a 17-10 start into a 21-29 nightmare very quickly. They inched their way to 43-43 after a win over the Yankees to open a four-game series with just six games left before the All-Star break. And they proceeded to lose all six. Three straight to the Yankees and three more to the Indians to limp into the break 43-49, collectively shattering any last bit of optimism fans had on a once promising season. 

Me and my good buddy Jack, who talk Royals and baseball almost every single day, had nothing to say to each other for the first time. Just utter frustration and bitter disappointment that we'd grown accustom to in rooting for this franchise, but for some reason it hurt worse this time around, because this group of young players was supposed to be different. 

All of that is to say, I didn't see this second half of the season coming. It's been glorious. And Justin Maxwell — the lone acquisition GM Dayton Moore made at the trading deadline — put an incredible bow on it Sunday afternoon in front of the most glorious sight this beleaguered fan's eyes have ever witnessed. 

0-0 game. Bottom of the 10th inning. Bases loaded. Two outs. 3-2 count. BOOM. 

A grand slam that was so thundering off the bat of Maxwell that he didn't even take the time to admire it or watch it land before turning away to the dugout and celebrating with his teammates and fans who were watching it go some 450 feet in the background. It was September 22 and the Royals just won their 82nd game — ensuring the first winning season in 10 years and just the third in my lifetime — and Kauffman Stadium was filled to the brim with fans in blue in a frenzy. 

I text my buddy Jack, my brother Brad and my buddy Justin and they all were in the process of texting me some form of "I can't believe it!" or "Ohhhhhh myyyyyy goddddd!!!" and better "This is so much fun!" 

That last one is the text that rings so pure in my heart when it comes to this team, this franchise. When you support a losing franchise, like a historically awful franchise ever since you entered this world, today doesn't happen often. I mean, it never happens. 

It was almost too much to grasp. This whole time the Royals have been on an incredible second-half surge in which they're 39-24, the chase for a Wild Card berth has always been at the forefront. It was improbable and it was going to take a lot of collapsing by some teams who quite frankly appeared too good to collapse. The Rays did, and then found themselves of late and are likely in the playoffs. The Orioles didn't collapse, but they didn't play great in the second half, allowing for less competition. The Rangers did in a big, big way, as perhaps best witnessed with the Royals walk-off that dropped them to 5-16 in the month of September. Unfortunately, the Indians didn't. And they're playing as well as the Royals and have a much easier schedule which they've destroyed. 

But, with the frantic nature of scoreboard watching and following the Royals try and make a push, I never considered the momentous moment that inevitably awaited when they hit 82 wins. And for some reason, Maxwell's bomb in front of a packed house on the final home game of the regular season to push the team to it's first winning season sunk in all at once. I sat there and took it in and thought, "wow, this sport is even more amazing when your team is good." 

Forgive me for trying to tie sex into baseball, but this analogy seems the most fitting, but bare with me here: Baseball is like sex. The first time you have sex it's a great experience, sort of, because you're discovering something amazing for the first time in your life. And you think to yourself, "I can't believe I've been missing out on this for my entire life!" Maybe the first time you had sex it was with someone you really loved, but it's more likely that you didn't, like me, so the first time you have sex with someone you really care for. Someone you truly love, it's the best feeling you will ever experience. And  assuming you're in a relationship with them, engaged and married, it continues. 

I fell in love with the Royals after the first game I went to at Kauffman Stadium — that I remember — when I was 10 years old. It was a bad experience for the next 14 years. The 

On the Royals and Opportunity

It's Aug. 16 and as I sit here and type this, the Royals are 63-57 and just took the first game of a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers as Danny Duffy out-dueled Justin Verlander.

That's a weird sentence to type.

The last month has been weird to process.

Forget the fact the Royals were 43-49 at the All-Star break and I, as well as most fans, wanted and expected the team to be sellers. General Manager Dayton Moore blasphemously said the team was still a contender and they could come out of the break and win 15 out of 20 and be right back in the race. He was rightfully mocked. 15 out of 20 isn't easily done by any team, and the Royals have never accomplished that feat under Moore's seven-year watch. So of course, they didn't achieve that outlandish feat.

They won 16 of 20.

They flipped the switch from six under .500 to six over .500 (59-53) in a matter of three weeks. And they found themselves right in the thick of the wild card race. Unfortunately, they only made up a half game on the Tigers, who were equally hot in that stretch. Nevertheless, baseball suddenly became relevant for Royals fans in August.

I predicted this team to win 84 games before the season. A winning season, but not enough to make their first postseason appearance since 1985 — the year they won the whole freaking thing. Based off of Baseball Prospectus' win-loss projections, that is exactly the win total the Royals are on pace for. That certainly won't get them to the playoffs. A win total of 90 would be enough to throw their hat in the ring. Baltimore and Texas won 93 games last season and tied for the final two wild card spots and that's about where current wild card occupants Tampa Bay (69-51) and Oakland (69-52) are headed toward. In order to reach 93 wins the Royals, who sit at 64-57 after sweeping the second half of a doubleheader against the Tigers, would need to finish the season 29-12. That is roughly .700 baseball, which is difficult, but not improbable. And slightly less ambitious than the Royals have been playing to get to this position. And as I alluded to earlier, I'm here to talk about opportunity, however slim it might be.
Update: The Royals lost the final two games of the series to the Tigers and are now 64-59, thus needing to go 29-10 to get to 93 wins. This post is seeming more dire by the moment isn't it? Alas, positivity! Onward! 

Before I delve into the remainder of the schedule — which is more than favorable — lets discuss some statistics.

The Royals currently have the eighth best run differential among American League teams at +25. The teams ahead of them are the Rangers (+58) and the Orioles (+44) and the Indians (+30). What does this mean? Perhaps nothing, as run differential isn't a hard and fast rule for who makes the playoffs. But in most cases, it certainly does. Take last season for example — every team who made the playoffs in the AL had a run differential of better than +56 with the exception of the Orioles. The O's were perhaps one of the biggest anomalies in playoff history, as their record was a shiny 93-69, but they had a run differential of just +7. And the team they finished three games ahead of for a playoff spot, the Rays, had a +120 which was the second best in the league. The reason for Baltimore's peculiar ascent into the playoffs ahead of their AL East counterpart was a ridiculous winning percentage in one-run games. The Orioles went 29-9 in one-run games last season and that .763 winning percentage is the third best all time in one run games.

The Royals aren't tracking anywhere near that level of randomness, but they are 24-19 in one-run games so far this season. And it's no mistake they, like the Orioles a year ago, have a fantastic bullpen to go along with their luck. The bullpen is spearheaded by closer Greg Holland who is on pace for one of the greatest season's by a reliever ever. Holland has converted 34 save opportunities and 27 in a row after saving both ends of the doubleheader against Detroit on Friday. In 49 innings he has a microscopic 1.47 earned-run average and has a ridiculous 77 strikeouts against just 13 walks. That equates to 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Closers, and in that case relievers in general, aren't overly valuable. That's why they're so easily replaceable and dispensable. Holland, however, has been worth almost 2 wins above replacement (1.8 WAR) this season and if he keeps his current pace he will easily eclipse that. Orioles closer Jim Johnson had a 2.4 WAR last season and his season, while spectacular, is  a far cry from Holland's current pace. (Johnson has also imploded of late for the Orioles, blowing three consecutive saves, and is just a 0.4 WAR pitcher this season. And Baltimore, who "just knew how to win close games last season" is 14-21 in one-run games this season with virtually the same exact roster.) 

Anyway, if theres a comparison to be made for the Royals it's to last year's Orioles. And while 93 wins is ambitious, with a good pitching staff, backed by the best defense in baseball and great bullpen bookended by the best closer in baseball coupled with a favorable schedule — opportunity is abound.

Now, about that schedule.

The Tigers: The Royals are in the midst of perhaps their most important series in my lifetime. Which by the way is sad, but I digress. It's not likely they'll be able to catch the Tigers, who I think are the best team in baseball, but for whatever reason the Royals seem to match up well with them. Even if they drop the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals will still hold a 7-6 advantage in the season series. (Update: They did just that. But it's 7-6 for the year, so suck it Detroit.) They will see the Tigers six more times with a three-game home series Sept. 6-8 and a three-game series in Detroit the following weekend. There is opportunity to gain direct ground on the division leader.

The Indians: I've never been sold on the Tribe as a serious playoff contender or as a bigger threat to the Tigers than the Royals. But I love what they did with their lineup — adding lots of guys who do a hell of a job at getting on base — and their approach challenges the core pre-conceived notion in baseball: You can't win without good pitching. The Indians do not have good pitching. Their staff ranks 12th in the AL in ERA. But their offense is the fourth best in the AL. And while the Tigers own the Indians — 13-3 in the season series — the Royals have struggled with the Tribe and have a losing record of 5-8 against them. Without question, the biggest stretch of the season comes Sept. 6-18 when they play six against the Tigers and six against the Indians. If the Royals can go 8-4 or 9-3 in that stretch — and just so we're clear, they'll need to do just that — the final 10 games of the season will be very interesting.

The Royals play three in Cleveland Sept. 9-11 and three at Kauffman Sept. 16-18.

The Rest of the Schedule: If you take away the 12 games against the two division foes, the Royals have just four (!) games of the 27 remaining against teams above .500. A makeup home contest against the Rays Aug. 26 and three home games against the Rangers following the important 12 game stretch beginning Sept. 20. The Rangers and Rays, of course, are currently ahead of the Royals in the wild card race, so those games loom large depending on how things shake out in their respective divisions. The Rangers are currently a 1/2 game up on the Athletics in the West and the Rays trail the Red Sox by one game in the East.
For the record, I think the Athletics will win the West and the Rays will leapfrog the Red Sox in the East, but they're big games nonetheless.

The Royals have 10 games left against the Twins and White Sox, who they've gone a combined 19-9 against, including a four-game road series against the White Sox to end the season. After the series with the Tigers, the Royals have a 17-game stretch against below .500 teams with the exception of the one-game makeup against the Rays. They need to scorch through that slate if they're to have a decent opportunity in the final month of the season. That stretch, if dealt with properly, will lead into the biggest stretch of the season against the Tigers and Indians. If the Royals can win 12 or 13 of those 17 — more would be ideal — they'll set themselves within the 77-63 or 76-64 range. That narrows the daunting task of 27-10 to finish the season suddenly to winning something like 15 of 22 to finish 92-70.

A potential and significant hinderance to the Royals making this run is the absence of Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas. Cain is out with a strained oblique, and as Bob Dutton of the KC Star writes, his return might be farther away than expected. This is particularly discouraging news, because despite what the peripherals tell you about Cain: .261/.324/.362, he has been the Royals most valuable player this season. He's been worth 3.4 WAR according to Baseball Reference — the highest on the team slightly ahead of surging Eric Hosmer (2.8), despite playing in just 96 games this season. The bulk of his value comes from his unbelievable defense in center field, where he is a 2.6 dWAR player and has saved 22 runs ALL BY HIMSELF this season according to The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric for a defense that has saved far and away the most runs of any team with 72. Cain's absence in centerfield is a huge detriment to the Royals. And while his bat isn't great, his OBP of .324 is theoretically being replaced by either second baseman Chris Getz' .299 OBP, newly acquired Emilio Bonifacio's .263 OBP or fourth outfielder Jarrod Dyson's .317 OBP. A downgrade in every sense. If Cain is shelved for the next couple weeks, it's obviously a continued big blow, but if the timetable of his return is the second week of September, as hinted in Dutton's article, it's a crucial return with the 12-game Detroit/Cleveland stretch ahead. Moustakas played against the Tigers on Saturday and while he appeared gingerly on the bases, he went 2 for 3 in the six hole. He is unquestionably an upgrade from Jamey Carroll, Bonifacio and de facto Getz. His second-half surge has been dully noted by this skeptic and he is needed the rest of the way for this team to have any kind of chance to put up more than three runs a game in the coming weeks.

As it is now, after predictably dropping the final two games of the series against the Tigers, the Royals are 64-59 with a +25 run differential and six games out of the second wild card.

It's a formidable challenge ahead and the prospects of snagging a postseason berth are slim, but not impossible. And while it's somewhat depressing — check that, extremely depressing — it's a certainty the Royals will be playing meaningful baseball in September for the first time in my lifetime. And that's something to get excited about.

Opportunity — it's a beautiful thing.

Greinke the Skeptic

The Greinke trade has been analyzed by the experts and broken down by the sabermetric geeks and the consensus is, well, there is no consensus. Some say the Royals got a great haul, like Buster Olney, but others feel they gave away their best pitcher in the last decade to add little to an already loaded farm system; Keith Law. I'm aligning myself with the former, but on a more moderate platform, like Rany Jazayerli. The Royals added a lot, but the fact that they had to make the trade is a complete failure on the behalf of Dayton Moore and the franchise. Zack Greinke didn't care if he played in the big market (New York, Boston, etc), he just wanted to pitch for playoff team, which is something Royals failed to accomplish during his time with the club.

But didn't Greinke know that the Royals have the best minor league system in baseball? Hadn't he heard of the massive numbers the Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers were putting up? Didn't someone tell him about the wealth of lefty arms that could complement him in the starting rotation in Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer, and Danny Duffy? 

Unfortunately for the Royals, Greinke had heard this before during former GM Allard Baird's days, however, this time he wasn't buying it. He had seen the fair share of can't-miss prospects that were suppose to surround him like Alex Gordon, come up to the majors and, well, miss. He no longer believed in or "trusted the process" that he was told to trust the seven years he was there. And who can blame him? If anything his comments toward the end of the 2010 season that doubted the future success of the franchise, brought him closer to Royals' fans. 

I've never been as excited about the Royals' future as am I currently, but I'm still pessimistic about the Royals going to the playoffs for the first time in my lifetime, aren't you? As a Royals fan I've been told year after year to "trust the process," and for some crazy reason I'm still listening. Greinke, however, is not anymore. 

A Professional College Fantasy

I have left this small-time stuff behind me. I feel like the blogging version of Carlos Beltran, going from a small-market franchise to the Big Apple in less than six months. When I last blogged I was an unemployed schmuck fresh out of college, albeit with a job awaiting me, but jobless nonetheless. On present day I am a sports editor/writer for the Christian County Headliner in Ozark, Mo. and most recently have signed on with the boys over at Kings of Kauffman of the Fansided blogging network.

However, I could not have done it without the use of BC on KC and more specifically, without the abominable Kyle Davies occupying a Royals roster spot. My defiling of him and the Royals landed me the gig with Kings of Kauffman. I will still be blogging about the Royals obviously, it will just be in a more organized and repetitive fashion with a much larger audience to listen to my rants. And since I am a multi-sports writer/blogger I will continue to use BC on KC as a format to discuss the Chiefs and most things involving the Missouri Tigers.

Which brings me to the purpose of this blog—other than announcing my promotion to the big leagues.

I'll be referring to the college athletes in this piece in the first person (lots of your, you's, etc.)

There has been a lot of attention garnered by the national media about pay for play in college athletics, college football in particular. My stance on this issue has always been, you're getting paid by getting a FREE EDUCATION that the majority of your peers aren't receiving. You've earned a free education with your athletic prowess, just as someone else earns his or her scholarship with their academic prowess. And many of the athletes in the two money-making sports that are fueling this debate, football and basketball, would not have even gotten into the universities in which they are attending for FREE.

**I won't expand on the last point, but would LOVE to have that discussion with anyone who disagrees.**

Now before you get all fussy on me, I get it athletes, you make tons of money for the universities in which you play for, that is if you're in the BCS conferences—sorry San Jose State athlete, you don't bring anything to the table, shed a few tenths off your forty and you'll be in this discussion—thus you deserve some sort of monetary compensation for you service.

It's a tough debate, however, me being a compromising and understanding young man, and a bit of an academic myself, I see no reason why we can't come to an agreement on this issue. Thus, I have come up with a magical formula that should dissolve this dispute once in for all. What if I were to tell you university presidents, network affiliates, and athletes that I could make you all richer with this scenario, is that something you might be interested in?

That's what I thought, so here's the whole shebang. Athletes will receive monetary compensation, contracts in a sense, if they are a scholarship player on the roster. They will receive pay grades based on how valuable they are to their team, this will be decided upon by the university in which they play for. Thus, the university will in a sense be a professional organization. Here's the kicker, (you'll like this, suits) since they will be paying players they are a professional organization, thus the player will have contracts which allow them to be viewed as employees that can be released, traded, and also not allowed to quit or transfer without forfeiting their contracts.

Think of all of this as if it is Major League Baseball. However, with no draft in a free market, players are paid based off of performance. The best part of this whole scenario though, is that since the players are now employed by the university—athletic directors and head coaches now become general managers in a sense and can trade and acquire players from other universities. See, in baseball if your team is struggling and is not in contention to make the playoffs, you traditionally trade your most valuable assets that can help a team in contention and in return receive prospects that will help build your organization down the road. The same scenario would apply in my version of college football.

Their would be a trade deadline just as their is in professional baseball and it would similarly take place around the halfway point of the season. We will place it temporarily at Nov. 1.

For instance, last season in the Big 12, Missouri's struggling run defense could have traded for Baylor's Phil Taylor before its meeting with Nebraska on Oct. 30. With the injury to defensive tackle, Dominique Hamilton, this move would have immediately impacted Missouri and given them a boost and much better chance to knock off Nebraska, thus a better shot to win the Big 12 North and get to a BCS bowl. However, just like in MLB, the deal would require Missouri to give up a couple promising prospects. In the college football trading arena it would be promising freshmen who have 3-4 years ahead of them.

Taylor would have fetched a heavy price, seeing as though he is a first round draft pick and one of the best nose tackles in the country. Just for fun, lets say Missouri made the deal and acquired Taylor for freshmen WR Marcus Lucas, DE Kony Ealy, and CB Tristen Holt. All were four-star recruits, according to rivals.com and are three recruits that Baylor would not have otherwise gotten. They are three valuable pieces that would help Baylor in building a program for the next three seasons and they only had to give up a player who had 6 games left in his college career.

The deal would be completely worth it for Missouri if: Taylor comes in and plugs holes that were as wide as the Mississippi River against Nebraska—preventing  Roy Helu Jr. from three long TD runs—and Missouri wins the game and moves to 8-0 on the season and 4-0 in conference, essentially clinching the Big 12 North with a two-game lead and tiebreaker over Nebraska. Missouri loses three prized recruits that they spent countless hours persuading to come to the university, however, if Taylor helps them win a Big 12 championship and play for a national championship, then it was completely worth it. Just as it was for the Brewers to acquire C.C. Sabathia at the deadline two seasons ago.

You could apply this scenario to any contending team in conferences all over the country. For instance, the game is already dirty in the SEC, why not throw in deadline trades that bolster Alabama's roster before the Iron Bowl? Can you imagine how much better the SEC season would have been if Bama or Florida traded for Jake Locker midway through the season? Oh yeah, I forgot to throw in that inter-conference trading would be allowed.

Some of you might be wondering, "What about the players? That wouldn't be fair for them to have to switch schools midway through the semester and travel across the country! They're just kids!" Hate to break it to you, but they're now paid athletes. They're paid employees of the NCAA and they have no say—unless they have a no-trade clause in their contract, but those can be worked around. It's part of the business of the new and improved college football world. Besides, what would Locker or Taylor care? They're now getting PAID to go play for a WINNER. Locker would have been able to leave behind his cement-shoed offensive line and no play-makers to go play behind SEC hog-mollies, hand off to Mark Ingram, and throw to Julio Jones with a real shot to play for a national championship. And Taylor would be able to leave behind his cellar-dwelling Bears in the south for the first-placed Tigers in the north and would get a chance to beat-up the Oklahoma Sooners, but this time in a winning effort.

It's an utterly spectacular plan that would generate even more interest in the NCAA, because people would no longer wonder if their team was paying its players, because everyone would be doing it....legally. ESPN and other networks could use players—paid employees of the NCAA—to promote games and they would have analysts breakdown potential trade rumors and deadline deals that need to be made. The interest in the game would skyrocket even higher than it already is and no one would feel guilty about it, because the players are "getting theirs." There would have to be an agreed on salary cap, however, and it would be equal for all 120 FBCS programs. Small programs wouldn't be able to afford it, but they can't say that they don't have an equal opportunity to compete and it certainly gives them leverage if they could offer recruits a guaranteed salary.

The BCS would dissolve and the NCAA would implement the playoff system that all fans have been dying to see. The playoffs would be setup like March Madness, but have it's own illustrious nickname (The Holiday Classic, anyone?) that would make the Mike Tiricos and other schmucks of the world to yearn for a simpler time when it was good ol' Notre Dame vs. Michigan for all the marbles, while 10 other equally good teams watched on television. I would suggest 16 teams, but would allow the NCAA and its detractors to argue over the best setup. This would be much better than arguing which is better between the BCS/Bowl system vs. playoff system, no?

Some of you reading this are probably thinking how ridiculous it is to expect a player to move halfway through a semester to go play at another university—potentially thousands of miles away—and leave his teammates, friends and the coaches and program he chose to play at, without any say. Just for added revenue and more money for universities and large media corporations. And you're probably the same people who think that these mistreated athletes deserve to get paid in the first place. Well, here you go. I've just painted a professional reality mixed into the college game. Still think college athletes should be paid?

Two Steps Forward, Three Steps Back

With the Royals headed into the tank at a rapid pace, I find it necessary to deflect my attention from the play on the field. Lets face it, the Royals are an extremely young team, in fact, the youngest in the majors. Couple that with abysmal starting pitching and, well, you get the product that you are currently viewing.

There will be ups and there will be downs, with the latter occurring more frequently. Anyone who had thoughts of the Royals competing for anything significant this season just wasn't looking closely enough. When you tout Luke Hochevar as your "opening day starter" and throw out Kyle Davies every five starts, unless your other three are Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, and Tim Lincecum--you're probably not going to be very good.

I'm OK with that and most reasonable fans should be, considering what waits in the wings. Dayton Moore has told us for years to "trust the process," and for most of us, that meant we shouldn't realistically expect the Royals to compete until 2012. That has been my train of thought for the past three seasons. Sure, Moore has confused some people with big acquisitions, such as Jose Guillen and Gil Meche--which enhanced the expectation time table--but in reality were nothing more than flare to hold the interest until "the process" came to fruition. (I believe Meche was meant for the future and was ruined by Trey Hillman, but that topic is for a different day.)

We as fans waited for the likes of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy and others to make their way to Kansas City and begin the youth movement. I fully expected this year's product to be bad, given the opening day roster. But I knew what was coming later in the year, so I didn't mind the prospects of watching a 100-loss team, as long as they were infused with young talent by the end of the year. So far, the season that I envisioned has began to take shape, as top prospects like Crow, Hosmer, Duffy, and Moustakas are all on the roster. And I fully expect more to be up before the season is over.

However, I stumbled across a disturbing tweet from Royals beat writer, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, who alluded that the Royals planned to recall Kyle Davies after a rehab start in AA and send Duffy back down to AAA. If this transaction does in fact come to fruition then Dayton Moore is less competent then I give him credit for.

This move would be ignorant on so many different levels that it would be nearly impossible to dissect, but I will attempt to do so nonetheless. For starters--something that Davies is not at the big league level (badaboom)--Davies has the highest ERA of any major league pitcher with at least 120 starts, ever. That's right, no pitcher in the history of baseball has amassed over 120 starts with an ERA as bad as Davies' 5.60 in 140 career starts. You know why? Because nobody with that bad of an ERA is allowed to make that many starts. They are either moved to the bullpen, demoted, or released.

In Davies case, it took an injury to do what Moore so obliviously could not. And after the Royals were given this beautiful gift, they appear likely to throw it away. Not only that, they plan to take away invaluable experience from the club's only promising young pitcher at the moment, in favor of the guy I just outlined. How much more evidence do you need to realize that Kyle Davies is not--and never will be--a major league starter?

Danny Duffy is as much apart of this team's future as Hosmer, Crow, and Moustakas are. Yet, it doesn't appear that he is being treated that way even though, as a starting pitcher, he resides at the team's most critical position. It would make more sense to keep Moustakas down in AAA while Wilson Betemit performs adequately at third base in an attempt to showcase him before the trade deadline. You know why? Because Betemit actually has trade value. Sure, there will be a team that might take a chance on Davies, but they sure as hell won't give up any prospects for him. Thus, he is a non-commodity. I would have no problem if Moustakas was held down for a few more weeks while Betemit hit .300 and continued to boost his trade value. Instead, Moose is playing everyday at third base, while Betemit's rear remains firmly planted on the bench.

IF the Royals are serious about competing in 2012 then they will need Duffy to have as many innings under his belt as possible. He must learn how to get through 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches, or better yet, learn how to get through 4 innings doing the same. His stuff is ready, but his command and mound presence needs work. The only way he will get the proper work needed is if he stays in the majors. Unfortunately, Moore seems content to sacrifice all this in order to get a few more starts out of his 27-year-old Atlanta Braves project that has proven nothing. 


Note: On June 27 the Royals announced that they would move to a six-man rotation in order to keep Duffy in rotation, while still bringing Davies up. Not ideal, but I suppose Moore met me and other sane Royals fans halfway. 


This move prompted the sad, but accurate tweet from national baseball writer, Joe Sheehan: The #Royals are going to a six-man rotation just to make room for one of the worst SPs in MLB history. The most Royals move ever. 


Moore's lovefest with Davies reminds me of that dude in college whose girlfriend is cheating on him and everyone, including him deep down, knows it. And when his friends tell him about it he makes an even bigger ass of himself by insisting that she can change, so he continues to date her--and she continues to cheat.

Moore continues to believe in Davies and he continues to suck. 


The biggest concern to me and perhaps the more important matter at hand is the big picture implications that a move like this would have. If Moore is willing to supplant a definite part of the clubs' future rotation for a guy that has no future in any rotation, then I simply cannot take his claims of competing in 2012 serious. It is mind boggling to me how Moore can be so committed to the future, almost to a fault, at one juncture, then completely ignore it soon after.


The move has not yet taken place, but if it does, then I think it signals a serious concern that most educated Royals fans really don't want to face. That is, their GM is contradicting his own youth movement. If you're going to blow up the system then blow it up. Don't say you're going skinny dipping and then leave your boxers on. My digressing analogies are merely trying to illustrate the pull-out move that Moore appears prepared to make.

I'm not saying, turn over the roster and bring up every prospect the club has. I'm simply suggesting that if you're going to deem a prospect major-league ready, then don't send him down after he performs adequately in order to feature a piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit.

It has been well documented how committed Moore is to his Atlanta guys, but it borders on ridiculous when his loyalty interferes with his own plan for the Royals' future. 

Alcides Freaking Escobar

In just over two weeks Alcides Escobar has gone from quite possibly the worst hitting everyday player to a legitimate threat every time he steps in the batters box. For the season Escobar is now hitting .255/.289/.322, but in his last 12 games, Escobar is hitting .512/.543/.744. And amazingly, he's actually getting hotter, as in his previous six games he is hitting .545/.583/.864 and that included his first home run of the season in Sunday's game vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.

"I'm feeling real comfortable right now," Escobar said. "I've been working with (hitting coach Kevin) Seitzer, and it's really paying off." (Via Kansas City Star's Bob Dutton)  

The first part of this post will involve some brief guy love toward hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, but the majority of the hubbub will deservedly go toward Escobar. Look, we have all seen the valiant work of Seitzer pay off in the seemingly rejuvenated career of Alex Gordon.

Some of that is in part due to his move to left field, but the majority of it goes to Seitzer for getting Gordon to change his approach at the plate and his swing mechanics. Thus, making Gordon more than simply a power threat, but rather a guy that can hit to all fields--with his power being to pull--and someone who can also draw a walk.

It seems as though Seitzer has applied similar tactics, to some degree, in fixing Escobar's Tony-Pena-Jr.-like approach at the plate. I can't emphasize enough how completely taken back I am with Escobar's sudden transformation from a guy that quite simply could not hit, to Nomar Garciapara in his prime. Seriously, if this keeps up Seitzer should run away with the Hitting Coach of the Year Award, if such an award existed.

Granted 12 games is an extremely small sample size and Escobar's overall numbers are still, .255/.289/.322. And I think it's a little ridiculous to expect anything eerily close to what Escobar has churned out these past couple weeks for the rest of the season. But I don't think it's out of the question for him to find a happy medium between his first 60 games and the past 12.

Escobar doesn't need to hit .300 to be an effective big league player. His defense is so goldgloveingly (yes, I made that up) exceptional that hitting between .250-.260 will be more than enough, especially in baseball's current post-steroid environment. I'm not afraid to go out on a limb and say that he's the best defensive shortstop this franchise has ever seen. To be honest, given the history of this franchise's success with at the position, it really isn't much of a stretch.

The Royals are 5-7 during Escobar's reign of terror on all things resembling pitching. This stretch has placed them into last place in the AL Central after losing in walk-off fashion on Sunday to the Cardinals while their Scandinavian division-mates simultaneously defeated the Padres in walk-off fashion as well.


Side story: I attended the Royals' first game of the four-game series against the Twins earlier this month. The Royals lost and later in the night at a watering hole in Wesport I spout off to some Twins fans who had made the trip down to lovely Kansas City. I pampered them with remarks about how their team's reign in the AL Central was over and that the Royals would take over as the supreme small-market contender. The Twins proceeded to sweep the four game series between the two clubs and are 14-2 since I made those comments. Suffice to say, I feel old lady karma is being a bit of a harsh bitch at this point in time.

I believe my comments will ultimately prove to be true and the Royals and Indians will in fact be battling it out for the AL Central for the next 5-10 years. However, at the moment I look like a bumbling drunken fool to the avid and foulmouthed Twins fans that were conned into a baseball conversation with me on that Thursday evening.

Back to Escobar, it's difficult for me, as I am not a scout, to truly evaluate what he is doing differently that has brought on this sudden surge of swing. But in my non-expert opinion it appears as though he is simply getting his hands through zone more quickly than before. This has allowed a bit of a power boost, as he is now hitting the ball on a line to all fields and has appeared to elevate the ball more frequently.

Now, this all sounds profound and good to me when I think about it and see it written in front of me, however, our boys at Fangraphs challenge my notions. The numbers don't back up my claim that he is hitting more line drives and elevating the ball with more frequency. In fact, he is doing it less.

A quick look at Escobar's splits support the obvious fact that he is hitting for more power and a higher average, but it challenges the notion that he is doing anything drastically different. In the month of June--when Escobar began his streak--16.4% of his balls have been line drives. Comparatively, he hit 21.9% line drive balls in May, a month in which he batted .209/.258/.244. Yes, he actually had a higher on base percentage than slugging percentage in 86 at bats in the month of May. Those kind of number are unheard of, and not in a good way.

For reference, Escobar's average thus far in the month of June is .369--one-hundred and sixty points higher than the previous month. Escobar has hit 60% of his balls on the ground in June compared to 50% in May. Lastly, he has hit 23.6% fly balls in June, while he hit 27.4% fly balls in May.

Please forgive me, as those are a lot of nerdy numbers to digest and I'm hardly a sabermetric magician myself. But, I think those numbers bring up a more interesting discussion when it comes to Escobar's brief, but sudden surge at the plate. Maybe, as is sometimes the case in baseball, he is just getting lucky. That's not to say that his numbers aren't attributed to whatever new adjustments he has made, but simply an extension on the thought that he might have been extremely unlucky in April and May.

The numbers at Fangraphs support the fact that he is not driving the ball or elevating it any more than he was when he was hitting below the Mendoza Line. In fact, he is doing it less than he was during those dreadful months. All of these factors when stacked up next to each other lend credit to the notion that the real Escobar is likely somewhere in between the nadir that paralleled Angel Berroa's fallout of baseball and his current Justin Beiber-like peak. (Seriously, when that kid hits puberty the jig had better be up or I will have lost all faith in mankind.)

When Escobar's hot streak subsides and all evaluations are completed on the subject, one thing will remain and that will be a batting average that sits in a respectable echelon of Major League Baseball. I think it is as safe to say that Escobar wasn't as bad as his .204 average suggested as it is to say that he is not as good as this current hot streak. What lies in between those two extremes is a valuable everyday shortstop who is exceptional with the glove and viable at the plate.

I think all Royals fans would be OK with that, I know I am.

Although it is too early to become infatuated with Escobar's sudden revival at the plate, It is never too early to be excited about the sensational glimpses that the 24-year-old big smiling Venezuelan kid displays. Couple that with an explosive swing from a 21-year-old hot shot at first base and many other talented sub 25-year-olds that have this Royals blogger believing he will have the last laugh in the dispute with his Twins counterparts on June 2, 2011. 

Did someone order moose tacos?

The Royals called up Mike Moustakas from Omaha and optioned Mike Aviles just in time for the weekend road series against the Los Angeles Angels. The move not only demoted Aviles, but will also diminish the playing time of Wilson Betemit, who had been serving as the teams third baseman. It is most likely that Betemit will be dealt sometime before the July 15 trade deadline. With Moustakas taking over as the everyday third baseman the Royals now have a pair stationed in the hot corners who are not yet old enough to rent a car.

Thus, the future is here, at least in the infield.

The early returns from Moustakas have been positive, as he's not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also great plate discipline--drawing a walk in each of his first four games. According to Rany Jazayerli he's the first Royal to do that since, well, ever. With Moustakas hitting in the 6-hole, the Royals actually have a middle of the order that is viable. This is something that has been missing, among other things, with this franchise since the late 90s/early 2000s.

(3-Hosmer, 4-Butler, 5-Francouer, 6-Moustakas) 

The average age of that group is a shade under 24. Take away Francouer, who figures to not fit into the team's long term plans, and the average age of the remaining three is 22.6. All three are under contract through 2016. That gives the Royals a minimum of five seasons to build around this core middle of the order. It is yet to be determined whether or not any are capable of hitting 30 home runs, but it is expected that Hosmer and Moustakas will.

I am not convinced that Alex Gordon will be the long term solution as the leadoff hitter, however, in 25 games he has hit .280/.361/.449 with 12 runs scored--more than adequate in that role. I still feel that he is hitting there out of necessity this season and has the type of power that you would like to see a little later in the order. But until an another option presents itself, you could do a lot worse than batting Gordon leadoff.

The arrival of Moustakas and Hosmer this season and their immediate impact signals the start of a very exciting youth movement that all of us Royals fans have been waiting for. However, it also signals the disparity, at this point, in big-league ready talent between position players and pitchers. Sure there is an abundance of pitching prowess in the minor leagues, but none of the arms, besides Duffy and possibly Mike Montgomery are close to ready. And there are tons of young arms already on the major league roster, but none, besides Duffy, are starting pitchers.

This is the most difficult part of building a winner. The Royals bullpen and bats are good enough right now to win the AL Central, but their starting pitching isn't even close. When Luke Hochevar is your opening day starter then the season is over before it begins. No offense to Hochevar, he is by all accounts a good guy who has some good stuff, but he is not and never will be one of the three best starting pitchers on a playoff roster.

Mike Montgomery appears to be the crown jewel of all the arms in the farm system and just so happens to be the most ready of all of them as well. He might be the ace of the staff in the future. But then again, he might not. Arms such as Jake Odorizzi and John Lamb figure to factor into the rotation as well at some point.

With Moustakas and Hosmer arriving and other young budding hitters like Wil Myers on the way-- paired with a revived Gordon and established Butler--the Royals offensive foundation is in place and will only improve. However, starting pitching will be the key and the Royals don't appear to have it.

Most point to the young arms in the farm system that I alluded to earlier. But might I divulge a different channel of thinking? The Royals will need to trade a combination of big league talent and top level prospects to acquire an established ace pitcher. The Rangers did so to get Cliff Lee. The Brewers did so to get C.C. Sabathia. The Royals will have to do so as well. (King Felix anyone?)

I believe Montgomery will be exceptional. But there's better than a chance that he's not Cole Hamels or Tim Lincecum. Very few top pitching prospects are. Acquiring a proven talent is and will be necessary for this Royals team to make it to where it ultimately wants to be.

There is much to be excited about with the arrival of Moose and the tremendous talent that Hosmer and Duffy have already displayed. So lets enjoy the ride for now, but starting next year the pressure will be on Dayton Moore to produce a quality big-league product. He will do so by using his homegrown talent, but he would be wise to use it for multiple purposes.