As I'm sure you've noticed by now, the Kansas City Royals offense is quite awful. The Royals are last in the American League in runs with 147, which is the main reason why they are the not-so-proud owners of an 18-26 record and currently occupy the AL Central cellar.
This isn't a particularly new development for the Royals. With the exception of their World Series team in 2015, the current makeup of the club has always ranked near the bottom of the league in runs scored. They've made up for that with some good timely hitting, decent starting pitching, phenomenal defense and an otherworldly bullpen.
The Royals no longer have a phenomenal defense, merely a good one. They no longer have an otherworldly bullpen, merely an average one. So here we are.
I'm not interested in discussing all of that, however. I'm interested in delving into what exactly is plaguing this year's version of the offense. In years past, the Royals have possessed one elite skill in the offensive department: their ability to make contact.
Through 44 games this season, the Royals rank dead last in batting average (.230) and are fifth in strikeouts with 333. Those are both a serious departure from where they were even last season.
Where the Royals have always lagged is walks and home runs. They're still poor at drawing walks, ranking second-to-last in that department with 116. But they're actually on pace for their best home-run season in franchise history. As it stands now, they've hit 48 home runs and rank ninth in the league in that category. The club record is 168; they're on pace for 178.
So home runs are up and, while only slightly, so are the walks. So why on earth is this offense tracking to be the worst one of the Dayton Moore era?
-------
I was watching the Royals' series against the Twins over the weekend and a thought popped into my head as the Royals clubbed four home runs in a 6-4 win over the Twins in the first game of Sunday's doubleheader.
"It seems like there are only three results when this team puts the ball in play: an out, a single or a home run."
This thought struck me. And I tried to think back and recall games this season in which the Royals had multiple extra-base hits that weren't home runs. Surely this had occurred a few times this season, right? Answer: Yes, 14 times to be exact. They have seven games in which they've had two non-HR extra-base hits, six in which they've had three and one game in which they've had four.
Nevertheless, it was alarming to me that I couldn't think of an occurrence off the top of my head.
So I took a look at their doubles totals this season, a staple of their decent offensive teams in recent years. The numbers backed up my inclination. The Royals have hit just 52 doubles in 44 games, ranking them dead last by a wide margin in the league. They've also hit just three triples, ranking them third-to-last in the league.
What exacerbates this data is the ball park the Royals play in. Kauffman Stadium's cavernous outfield is conducive to extra-base hits. The 2011 Royals were the best at exploiting this. That team finished sixth in the league in runs and hit just 129 home runs (11th in the AL). But they hit 325 doubles, which ranked second in the league. The 2012 team took a step back offensively, but was still third in the league in doubles with 295. The 2013 team was bad at everything offensively. They ranked last in home runs, 12th in doubles and 11th in runs. (The firing of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, who preached a line-drive and gap approach, coincidentally lines up with this decline).
The 2014 Royals were one of the worst home-run hitting teams in the modern era, managing just 95 long balls, but they were ninth in runs because they hit 286 doubles, which was fourth in the league. And the 2015 Royals finally recaptured the 2011 offensive approach and finished sixth in runs, third in doubles with 300 and fourth in triples with 42.
The 2017 Royals are on pace to hit just 137 doubles. It would, quite obviously, be by far their worst mark in franchise history. Even the 1969 Royals, who scored an abysmal 586 runs, hit 179 doubles.
It's difficult to suss out what exactly the root cause is for this sudden doubles departure. At 44 games, the sample size is too large to brush it off as just a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. The most simple explanation is this team is putting the ball in play less frequently than it has in recent seasons. As was mentioned earlier, their strikeouts are up at 20.6 percent, compared to about 16 percent in 2014-15, and hits are down.
With more balls in play, one would expect the doubles total to rise. But by how much? If anything, it might point to a basic flaw in the team's overall hitting approach, which combined with the aging curve this crop of players is experiencing, has led to subpar results.
The Royals will almost certainly never have an offense that ranks in the top two or three in the league. They don't have the payroll or the ballpark for it and they seemingly have never had the ability to draft and develop the players to make up for those two things. But what has made their offense viable in this most recent run of success is their ability to use the ballpark to their advantage by employing a line-drive hitting approach that hits gaps and allows their young legs to take advantage of it.
The Royals are no longer young. And while their home-run power is experiencing an uptick, it does not appear to be the best path for them to take toward success if it means sacrificing putting the ball in play.
These are important things for the front office to consider with an inevitable rebuild looming.
No comments:
Post a Comment