At 37-37 the Royals find themselves in an interesting predicament. Thanks to the middling performance of the Indians, the overwhelming favorite in the American League Central, the Royals are just two games back in the division and in third place, 1.5 games behind the Twins, who have a -42 run differential.
The Royals are in the midst of their best stretch of baseball this season and have climbed all the way out of the 10-20 hole they put themselves in to start the season.
With the All-Star break just two weeks away and the trade deadline just two weeks beyond that, GM Dayton Moore will almost certainly have to navigate the thin line between trying to contend while also not mortgaging the club's future beyond this year.
I've gone back and forth on this several times since January. I advocated that the Royals give it one last run with this group of players, thus I was largely satisfied with the offseason's transactions. Then came the disastrous 10-20 start which had me reevaluating things and moving toward the "sell everyone and accelerate the rebuild" camp. They've gone 27-17 since, including a 15-7 record in the month of June.
The team was never as bad as it looked in April. They were hitting below .200 with runners in scoring position and had an abysmal BABIP, so regression to the mean was expected. But that's also what made the inauspicious start particularly damaging. The Royals, despite their improved play, still possess a poor run differential of -38. And while they're on an upward trajectory, the margin for error remains slim.
A bad week could tilt the scales back the other way.
For me to fully buy into this team's playoff chances, they need to play their way to five or six games above .500 and remain in the thick of the AL Central race -- a game or two out preferably. It's simply not worth the risk to receive nothing in the way of prospects for impending free agents Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Jason Vargas and Eric Hosmer at a statistical long shot.
Then again, this team has always defied the odds.
The Royals have plenty of important games ahead of them, however, their next six are of particular significance. They travel to Detroit for three games with the Tigers beginning tonight and then return back home for a three-game series with the Twins, who have had their number so far. Go 5-1 with a sweep of the Twins and you're sitting at 42-38, likely just a game out or tied for the lead in the division with the calendar turned to July.
At that point, it's time to consider adding some pieces to this team. While I don't expect, or advise that Moore takes the 2015 route of adding big fish like Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, which cost plenty in the way of prospects, I do think some modest upgrades to the bullpen and the infield, should be explored. There are also some potential in-house solutions available as well. Kyle Zimmer, if his arm is still attached, could provide an interesting bullpen option. Jorge Soler has a 1.127 OPS in 30 games at Omaha amidst DH Brandon Moss's continued struggles.
The Royals are at the tailend of a the best stretch of baseball the city has seen in three decades. An entire generation grew up without this. I'm in that generation. In 2008 I would've killed for meaningful baseball past the All-Star break. What the franchise has delivered 2013-16 has been a lot of fun. If the Royals are in the thick of playoff contention come the All-Star break, as outlined by the terms above, they owe it to themselves and the fan base to see it through.
I for one am rooting for one last ride with this group.
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